Sep 21, 2014
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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

What Are Funds Going To Do Next?

Mar 21, 2014

What Are Funds Going To Do Next?

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for March 21, 2014 at 4:45 am.  

Grain futures are mixed with profit taking in soybeans. Technical traders will be feeding off the reversal chart patterns made on Thursday.

Click Here for Allendale’s Daily Weather Update from Meteorologist Ryan Martin

The USDA released big sales again on the Weekly Export report. However that was offset by talk of more cancellation, switching or washouts of China’s previously purchased soybeans from Brazil. The trade is concerned that as many as 20 cargoes of Brazilian soybeans are at risk that China may walk away from.

The Peoples Bank of China has taken an interest in the soybean situation as they are concerned about some of the loans they regulate. The AG Banks are suggesting a reduction in government stocks of grains and soyoil. This action is continuing to pressure crush margins.

NOAA said at their Spring Outlook Meeting that Midwest corn planting could be delayed due to slow thaw.

University of Illinois economist Scott Irwin in a recent Farm Doc Daily post, "Recent Trends in the Profitability of Ethanol Production" says the ethanol industry has seen four extended periods of plant profitability, with the most recent one being the longest one, starting in spring 2013 to the present.

The Live Cattle futures chart picture looks a bit ominous after yesterday’s trade. The nearby futures contracts now have a double top made by an outside day down. Bulls will need to negate this pattern within a few days or more technical selling could persist.

Cash cattle traded yesterday afternoon at 150 in TX and NE which would be lower than last week. Cattle traders will be adjusting positions ahead of the Cattle-on-Feed Report this afternoon at 2:00 pm. Beef values are lower with choice down 1.80 and select down 1.53. The CME Feeder Index is 174.02.

Fund selling in livestock futures did not miss the lean hog futures. Most contracts closed near session lows. Confirmed cases of Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea Virus increased by 296 in the week ended March 15, bringing the total number to 4,757, according to data released on Thursday by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Animal Health Laboratory Network.  Pork cutout values are up .63.

Markets as of 4:45 AM

  • May Corn    + 1/4
  • May Beans   -17
  • May Wheat   +1
  • Apr Cattle  +.22
  • Apr Hogs    +.85
  • Jun Dlr     -.11
  • Jun S&P     +4.75
  • May Crude   +.13
  • Apr Gold    +6.70

Chart of the Day

Daily Chart

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