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The Grain Report

RSS By: Sean Lusk, AgWeb.com

Market updates from Walsh Trading.

DAN BURKE'S DAILY OPTION RUN 09/11/13

Sep 11, 2013

DAN BURKE'S DAILY OPTION RUN 09/11/13

GRAINS

MACRO OUTLOOK:  My outlook for grains is bearish into tomorrow’s crop report.  I believe there will be some rain over night and then a bearish report in the morning.  No matter what my opinion is, however, the real market uncertainty will come from tomorrow’s report.   Let’s take a look at November Soybeans, I believe prices will move lower to test the 1335 level again.  And, in my opinion, an evening shower should help us get there.  Please remember the next downside target for Nov Beans--after 1335--is 1295.  The December Corn is holding steady above the 464 level for now, but I expect more downside after tonight’s opening.  Also, I believe Dec Corn will move to the 446 level.  Unexpectedly, this contact is showing signs of support at the 636 level.  I think a good idea would be to keep an eye on the volume.  For me,  if there is an up move with higher volume, it would be a bullish indicator.

Please remember that even though I favor a bearish outlook for grains, I am ever so vigilant with protective option strategies for the bull.  Feel free to give me a call anytime to discuss your use of OPTIONS in order to manage your risk.  And, keep in mind, commissions and fees are not included in the cost of the option.

SOYBEAN HEDGE OPPORTUNITIES

PRODUCERS

OCT '13

NOV '13

JAN '14

MAR '14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

1250P

2.2

112.50

1200P

5.3

268.75

1140P

6.6

337.5

1100P

7.4

375.0

1220P

1.2

62.50

1180P

4.1

206.25

 

 

 

 

 

 

1200P

.6

37.50

1100P

1.3

68.75

 

 

 

 

 

 

END USERS

OCT '13

NOV '13

JAN '14

MAR '14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

1500C

1.2

62.50

1600C

3.7

193.75

1700C

5.4

275

1680C

7.6

387.50

1550C

.4

25.0

1620C

3.1

156.25

 

 

 

 

 

 

1600C

.2

12.50

1650C

2.2

112.50

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CORN HEDGE OPPORTUNITIES

PRODUCERS

OCT '13

DEC '13

MAR '14

JUL '14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

460P

9.1

456.25

435P

10.1

506.25

410P

7.7

393.75

400P

8.6

437.5

440P

3.1

156.25

420P

6.2

312.50

 

 

 

 

 

 

420P

.7

43.75

400P

3.1

156.25

 

 

 

 

 

 

END USERS

OCT '13

DEC '13

MAR '14

JUL '14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

500C

1.4

75.0

535C

4.2

212.50

630C

2.7

143.75

700C

3.6

187.50

510C

.7

43.75

550C

3.0

150.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

520C

.4

25

560C

2.3

118.75

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

WHEAT HEDGE OPPORTUNITIES

PRODUCERS

OCT '13

DEC '13

MAR '14

JUL '14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

630P

6.1

306.25

605P

10.1

506.25

550P

4.4

225.0

550P

11.5

593.75

620P

3.2

162.50

590P

6.2

312.50

 

 

 

 

 

 

615P

2.2

112.50

580P

4.3

218.75

 

 

 

 

 

 

END USERS

OCT '13

DEC '13

MAR '14

JUL '14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

680C

1.4

75.00

720C

6.1

306.25

810C

6.7

343.75

850C

9.6

487.50

690C

.7

43.75

730C

5.1

256.25

 

 

 

 

 

 

700C

.4

25

750C

4.1

206.25

 

 

 

 

 

 

RISK DISCLOSURE: THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN FUTURES AND OPTIONS TRADING.  THIS REPORT IS A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING A DERIVATIVES TRANSACTION AND ALL TRANSACTIONS INCLUDE A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS. THE USE OF A STOP-LOSS ORDER MAY NOT NECESSARILY LIMIT YOUR LOSS TO THE INTENDED AMOUNT.  WHILE CURRENT EVENTS, MARKET ANNOUNCEMENTS AND SEASONAL FACTORS ARE TYPICALLY BUILT INTO FUTURES PRICES, A MOVEMENT IN THE CASH MARKET WOULD NOT NECESSARILY MOVE IN TANDEM WITH THE RELATED FUTURES AND OPTIONS CONTRACTS.

Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The views and opinions expressed in this letter are those of the author and do not reflect the views of Walsh Trading Inc. or its staff.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Walsh Trading Inc. Copyright © Walsh Trading Inc.

In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to forecast changes in a security, commodity, currency or index. Support refers to an area on a chart where buy orders may be clustered. Resistance is an area where there may be sell orders.  Fibonacci retracement is named after a 12th century Italian mathematician and based on the theory that prices rise or fall by predictable amounts after reaching a high or low.

For more market information, Dan can be reached at 312.957.8248 or via e-mail at dburke@walshtrading.com.

Stay Green!  Go Paperless and fill out this online application in order to trade Futures and Options------https://accountforms.rcgdirect.com/

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