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The Grain Report

RSS By: Sean Lusk, AgWeb.com

Market updates from Walsh Trading.

DAN BURKE'S DAILY OPTION RUN 09/24/13

Sep 24, 2013

DAN BURKE'S DAILY OPTION RUN 09/23/13

GRAINS

MACRO OUTLOOK:  I think grains are feeling the cyclical pressures of the downside.  Recent weather reports are calling for wet 9 to 10 days out.  However, let’s ask the simple question--how wet is wet?  The nov soybeans traded higher today without the ability to push through the opening level of 1306 1/2.  I think bear pressures should start to lessen as we get closer to the next crop report.  Support for is still found at 1280.  I am keeping an eye on the 1408 level as a bull target.  In the Dec corn, prices moved lower to 448 1/2.  I like selling any rally over 472 with key support at 446.  I also like buying dec corn with a stop below 446.  In dec wheat, I am bullish.  The support can be found at 640.  The daily chart has a W formation that could be a bullish formation.  Resistance is at 664.  Please keep in mind, while looking below, that commissions and fees are not included in the cost of the option.

SOYBEAN HEDGE OPPORTUNITIES

PRODUCERS

NOV '13

DEC13

MAR14

MAY14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

1270P

17.4

875.0

1260P

20.7

1043.75

1220P

32.5

1631.25

1200P

38.5

1931.25

1260P

14.5

731.25

1250P

17.7

893.75

 

 

 

 

 

 

1230P

8.7

443.75

1240P

15.4

775.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

END USERS

OCT '13

NOV '13

JAN '14

MAR '14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

1350C

16.5

831.25

1370C

20.2

1012.5

1540C

9.6

487.50

1600C

7.7

393.75

1360C

13.7

693.75

1400C

13.7

693.75

 

 

 

 

 

 

1400C

7.0

350.0

1450C

7.3

368.75

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CORN HEDGE OPPORTUNITIES

PRODUCERS

NOV'13

DEC '13

MAR’14

MAY’14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

430P

3.7

193.75

440P

10.7

543.75

410P

6.3

318.75

400P

6.3

318.75

420P

2.3

118.75

430P

7.3

368.75

 

 

 

 

 

 

400P

.6

37.5

400P

2.1

106.25

 

 

 

 

 

 

END USERS

NOV '13

DEC '13

MAR '14

MAY '14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

470C

6.2

312.5

470C

10.2

512.5

550C

5.0

250.0

570C

6.6

337.5

480C

3.7

193.75

490C

5.3

268.75

 

 

 

 

 

 

490C

2.4

125.0

500C

3.7

193.75

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

WHEAT HEDGE OPPORTUNITIES

PRODUCERS

NOV '13

DEC '13

MAR '14

MAY '14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

630P

7.4

375.0

630P

12.1

606.25

580P

6.7

343.75

550P

5.3

268.75

610P

2.7

143.75

620P

8.5

431.25

 

 

 

 

 

 

600P

1.5

81.25

610P

6.3

318.75

 

 

 

 

 

 

END USERS

NOV '13

DEC '13

MAR '14

MAY '14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

670C

11.1

556.25

680C

13.7

693.75

770C

10.2

512.50

820C

9.3

468.75

690C

6.1

306.25

700C

9.2

462.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

700C

4.5

231.25

720C

6.3

318.75

 

 

 

 

 

 

RISK DISCLOSURE: THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN FUTURES AND OPTIONS TRADING.  THIS REPORT IS A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING A DERIVATIVES TRANSACTION AND ALL TRANSACTIONS INCLUDE A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS. THE USE OF A STOP-LOSS ORDER MAY NOT NECESSARILY LIMIT YOUR LOSS TO THE INTENDED AMOUNT.  WHILE CURRENT EVENTS, MARKET ANNOUNCEMENTS AND SEASONAL FACTORS ARE TYPICALLY BUILT INTO FUTURES PRICES, A MOVEMENT IN THE CASH MARKET WOULD NOT NECESSARILY MOVE IN TANDEM WITH THE RELATED FUTURES AND OPTIONS CONTRACTS.

Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The views and opinions expressed in this letter are those of the author and do not reflect the views of Walsh Trading Inc. or its staff.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Walsh Trading Inc. Copyright © Walsh Trading Inc.

In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to forecast changes in a security, commodity, currency or index. Support refers to an area on a chart where buy orders may be clustered. Resistance is an area where there may be sell orders.  Fibonacci retracement is named after a 12th century Italian mathematician and based on the theory that prices rise or fall by predictable amounts after reaching a high or low.

For more market information, Dan can be reached at 312.957.8248 or via e-mail at dburke@walshtrading.com.

Stay Green!  Go Paperless and fill out this online application in order to trade Futures and Options------https://accountforms.rcgdirect.com/

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