Jerry Gulke provides his pre-report analysis for the Aug. 12 Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates reports.
On Monday, USDA will release its monthly Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says this report could hold some major market-moving surprises.
With this round of reports, Gulke says USDA talks to farmers, looks at fields and factors in the weekly crop condition reports to generate an estimate for this year’s crop size. USDA looks at the crop’s status and then factors that in to what it means for yields.
"They do a very comprehensive job," he says. "They do the best job of anyone out there because USDA has the most manpower and data."
The corn and soybean markets have been trending lower. "We will need a big surprise in the August report to reverse these markets," Gulke says.
Hear Gulke's full audio analysis:
Here are three potential surprises:
Corn Yield Estimate
Gulke says while there are some areas of the country that have poor or very poor crop condition, for the most part this is a solid crop.
"I think I have grossly underestimated my potential yield out there," he says. "I think there are some fields that will blow our socks off in terms of high yields."
In 2009, Gulke says, USDA increased the average corn yield estimate by 6 bu./acre from their July to August estimates. He says this year is comparable to 2009, in terms of weather, and in most cases, this year’s crop is in better shape.