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How Many Hogs Will Be Liquidated?

June 25, 2009
By: Sara Schafer, Farm Journal Media Business and Crops Editor
 
 

Rachel Duff, Farm Journal Intern

The hog herd will be the smallest complete herd in two years. At least that is what early predictions are showing, says Rich Nelson, director of research for Allendale. Since the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report isn't officially out quite yet, Nelson says, the story is still unfolding.

Allendale estimates the following for Friday's report:

  • Hog herd: 98.1% of last year's levels
  • Kept for breeding: 97.6% of last year's levels
  • Kept for marketing: 98.0% of last year's levels

These numbers would mean a second year of liquidation, Nelson says. Last year's liquidation would normally have been enough for a profit, but with the swine flu this year, there is now a new reduced level of demand for pork. Another liquidation will occur to meet the new demand levels, Nelson says.

This news will have little effect on the corn market, since pork adds up to only 11% of all corn use, Nelson says. But, a 2% to 3% drop in hogs is definitely something corn farmers to keep on their radar.

He says a couple of weeks following the report will hold more insight. That time period will determine how aggressive the liquidation will be this summer.

For More Information:

Allendale Inc. 

Visit www.AgWeb.com on Friday afternoon to view the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report.


You can e-mail Rachel Duff at rduff@farmjournal.com

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