U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) is projected a 2.8% and world oil-consumption-weighted real GDP by 3.4%. As a result, global liquid fuels consumption growth is adjusted upward by 0.3 million barrels a day, to 1.5 million barrels per day.
This increased growth in 2010 oil consumption supports a firming of crude oil prices to above $80 per barrel this sprint and about $82 by the end of the year. We'll also see a further drawdown of commercial oil inventories, according to EIA.
Expect the annual average regular-grade retail gasoline price to increase from $2.35/gal. in 2009 to $2.84 in 2010 and $2.96 in 2011. "Average U.S. pump prices likely will exceed $3 per gallon at times during the forthcoming spring and summer driving season,” says Richard Newell, EIA administrator.
Projected annual average retail diesel fuel prices are $2.96 and $3.14 per gallon, respectively, in 2010 and 2011.