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A Roller-coaster Ride

October 4, 2010

Crop conditions deteriorated after USDA’s August Crop Production report estimated national corn yield at 165 bu. per acre. In September, USDA dropped its projection to 162.5 bu. per acre, and most observers expect more downward revisions to come.

AgWeb’s Weekend Market Report eNewsletter, featuring analysis from Top Producer Market Analyst Jerry Gulke, gives key insights into these market changes.

Following is a synopsis of Gulke’s analysis this summer and a taste of what you can get from these weekly reports:

¦Aug. 7: Another Up Week for Prices

Russian wheat concerns continued to push markets. Many people began to reminisce about 2007–08, but a more accurate comparison is the early 1970s.

"It starts in Russia with the heat and the destruction of their crops. It’s the worst drought in 123 years, and it’s reminiscent of 1973–74, when the communist-controlled country came in and bought all of our wheat," Gulke says.

¦Aug. 14: Markets Spotlight Weather

The market was stunned this week by USDA’s surprising national corn yield estimate of 165 bu. per acre. A big crop might be achieved, but the weather will need to cooperate. "We’re looking at some cool weather coming in a week, and we really need that to finish this crop out."


¦Aug. 21: Corn Closes Up 7 Cents, Highest since January

The trade watched the Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour results all week. Daily field reports indicated a smaller crop than USDA reported the prior week, and smaller than

Pro Farmer ultimately reported after Friday’s market close.

"This is the highest close in December futures since last January, on totally different fundamentals," Gulke says. "We had huge exports this week and freight and barges are booked up with sales to fill the ports into December."

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FEATURED IN: Farm Journal - October 2010

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