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AgDay Daily Recap -Aug 12, 2014

August 12, 2014
 
 

 

TODAY ON AGDAY
AUGUST 12, 2014
 
OPEN HEADLINES:
COMING UP TODAY ON AGDAY - CAN 2014 SET A NEW RECORD FOR CORN PRODUCTION? SOME ARE COMPARING THIS YEAR'S CROP TO 2009. WE HAVE ONE FARMER'S TAKE AHEAD ON AGDAY. IN AGRIBUSINESS EVALUATING THE CORN SOYBEAN PRICING SPREAD... DAIRY EXPORTS ARE ON A RECORD PACE…AND THESE 4-HER'S ARE COOKING SEAFOOD TO PERFECTION IN HOPES OF WINNING A CULINARY COMPETITION.  AGDAY - BROUGHT TO YOU BY THE ALL NEW CHEVY SILVERADO - THE 2014 NORTH AMERICAN TRUCK OF THE YEAR.
REPORT REVIEW:
GOOD MORNING I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. NUMBER CRUNCHERS FOR THE AG DEPARTMENT WILL BE BEHIND CLOSED DOORS THIS MORNING AS THEY PREPARE TO RELEASE WHAT COULD BE A BIG REPORT FOR THE GRAIN MARKETS. AND THAT'S OUR TOP STORY ON AGDAY.
CROP COMPARISON:
MANY MARKET ANALYSTS LIKE COMPARING THE POTENTIAL OF THE 2014 CROP WITH WHAT U-S FARMERS PRODUCED IN 2009. AT THAT TIME - IT WAS A RECORD-BUSTING CORN CROP.

AGDAY'S NATIONAL REPORTER BETSY JIBBEN TALKED WITH FARMERS AND ANALYSTS TO SEE IF IT'S FAIR TO COMPARE TO '09...

CROP PROGRESS:
AS FAR AS CROP CONDITION, THE PROGRESS REPORT SHOWS OVERALL 73-PERCENT GOOD TO EXCELLENT. THAT'S UNCHANGED FROM LAST WEEK. STATE BY STATE, ILLINOIS PUSHED ANOTHER POINT HIGHER WITH 82-PERCENT GOOD TO EXCELLENT. BUT IOWA SAW A ONE POINT DECLINE FROM LAST WEEK. 76-PERCENT IS ON THE HIGH END. AND INDIANA - WHERE BETSY REPORTED FROM - SAW A THREE POINT DROP WITH 72-PERCENT GOOD TO EXCELLENT. NEBRASKA IS DOWN A POINT, WHILE MINNESOTA GAINED ONE. SOYBEANS SAW A ONE POINT DECLINE FROM LAST WEEK WITH 70-PERCENT NOW GOOD TO EXCELLENT. WINTER WHEAT HARVEST IS QUICKLY COMING TO A CLOSE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. IDAHO, MONTANA AND WASHINGTON ALL SAW 20-POINT-PLUS GAINS. OREGON IS UP TEN FROM LAST WEEK. NATIONALLY, IT REACHED 95-PERCENT.

DAIRY EXPERTS:

IN OUR DAIRY TODAY REPORT, EXPORTS CONTINUE TO DRIVE MILK MARKETS. NONFAT DRY AND SKIM MILK POWDER EXPORTS HIT A RECORD IN JUNE. TOPPING 60-THOUSAND TONS FOR THE SECOND MONTH STRAIGHT... SO FAR THIS YEAR POWDER EXPORTS ARE UP ABOUT 13 PERCENT COMPARED TO LAST YEAR. CHEESE SHIPMENTS UP AS WELL... 34 PERCENT HIGHER THAN A YEAR AGO...A YEAR IN WHICH CHEESE EXPORTS SET NEW RECORDS. BUT SOME ANALYSTS PREDICT SANCTIONS FROM RUSSIA COULD SOFTEN MARKETS.
NORTH EXPORTS:
EUROPE IS ALSO A MAJOR CONTRIBUTOR TO THE WORLD EXPORT SPACE AND IS ONE THAT SELLS MORE FREQUENTLY JUST BECAUSE OF LOGISTICAL BENEFITS INTO THE RUSSIAN MARKET SO BOTTOM LINE IS IS THAT DEMAND AS IT GETS CUT OFF CREATES YOU KNOW IT'S CREATES EXTRA PRODUCT THAT CAN COME TO THE MARKET OUT OF EUROPE AND OBVIOUSLY THEIR GOING TO BE COMPETING WITH US THAT'S GOING TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON PRODUCT PRICES IN POTENTIALLY SOFTEN THOSE MARKETS.
DEANS FORECAST:
MEANWHILE, DEAN FOODS--THE U.S. LARGEST DAIRY PROCESSOR-- DOESN'T THINK STRONG EXPORTS PAINTS A COMPLETELY ROSY PICTURE. IT JUST WITHDREW ITS FULL YEAR EARNINGS FORECAST--CALLING THE CURRENT OPERATING SITUATION ONE OF THE MOST DIFFICULT IN HISTORY. INSTEAD IT'S ONLY FORECASTING A QUARTER AHEAD--EXPECTING THE THIRD QUARTER TO SEE LOSSES OF 5 TO 15 CENTS A SHARE. EARLIER IN THE YEAR IT EXPECTED A MORE THAN A 20 CENT PER SHARE PROFIT.
RANCH FOR SALE:
IN AGRIBUSINESS...IS CONDITIONS RIGHT FOR A BIG SALE IN TEXAS. ONE OF THE NATION'S LARGEST RANCHES NOW UP FOR GRABS… THE 510-THOUSAND ACRE WAGGONER RANCH STRETCHES ACROSS 6 NORTHERN TEXAS COUNTIES...IT'S THE LARGEST CONTIGUOUS RANCH IN THE U.S. THE PROPERTY INCLUDES TWO MAIN COMPOUNDS, HUNDREDS OF HOMES, THOUSANDS OF CATTLE,12-HUNDRED OIL WELLS AND 30-THOUSAND ACRES OF CROPLAND. THE OUTFIT ESTABLISHED IN 1923 IS LISTED FOR A COOL 725 MILLION DOLLARS.

THE LISTING AGENTS SAY IT’S ALREADY GETTING ATTENTION FROM INTERESTED BUYERS.

ANALYSIS INTRO:
TODAY USDA WILL RELEASE IT’S LATEST SUPPLY DEMAND REPORT. THIS IS THE FIRST OF THE SEASON TO USE ACTUAL FIELD SURVEYS. MARKETS ARE POISED FOR A REACTION BUT WILL IT BE ENOUGH TO SWING THE CORN SOYBEAN SPREAD. FARM DIRECTOR AL PELL EXPLAINS IN ANALYSIS.
 
 
ANALYSIS:
HERE AT THE AGRIBUSINESS DESK WERE TALKING TO JOE VACLAVIK FROM STANDARD GRAIN JOE LET'S TALK A LITTLE BIT ABOUT THE CORN AND BEAN SPREAD AND I GUESS WHAT I'M THINKING ABOUT IS MOST GUYS PUT MORE MONEY IN PLANTING CORN THAN THEY DO IN SOYBEANS AND SOME OF THEM THIS YEAR ARE PROBABLY GOING TO MAKE AS MUCH MONEY AS THEY DID CORN BASED ON OUR PRICES. RIGHT YOU'VE GOT A SOYBEAN MARKET THAT HISTORICALLY SPEAKING IS OVERPRICED RELATIVE TO CORN THAT'S FOR A COUPLE DIFFERENT REASONS ONE OF THEM IS BECAUSE WE'RE NOT REALLY THROUGH THE HEART OF THE GROWING SEASON IN BEANS AS WE ARE IN CORN WERE PASSED JULY WERE THROUGH POLLINATION BEANS THERE'S STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR A WEATHER PROBLEM TO AFFECT THAT MARKET AS A RESULT YOU'VE GOT THIS CORN VERSUS BEAN RATIO IT'S ABOUT 2.9 TO 1 IT'S USUALLY ABOUT 2.5 TO 1 WHAT THAT'S GOING TO DO HERE INITIALLY IS IT SHOULD ENCOURAGE SOME BIGGER SOYBEAN PLANTINGS IN SOUTH AMERICA WHICH COULD ULTIMATELY BE A LITTLE BIT NEGATIVE FOR THE BEAN MARKET AND IF THOSE SPREADS DON'T CORRECT THEMSELVES YOU MAY SEE SOME EVEN BIGGER BEAN ACREAGE IN THE US NEXT YEAR RELATIVE TO CORN SO I THINK THAT WHAT THAT TELLS YOU IS A COUPLE OF THINGS ONE MAYBE NOT BE SUPER BEARISH THE CORN MARKET HERE BECAUSE YOU BELIEVE PRODUCTION THE NEXT FEW YEARS IS GOING TO BE VERY BIG CAUSE WERE PROBABLY GOING TO LOSE SOME CORN ACREAGE. OKAY. SECOND THING IS THAT THERE IS STILL A BIG AMOUNT OF DOWNSIDE RISK IN THAT BEAN MARKET IF A COUPLE OF THINGS HAPPEN IF YOU SOME GOOD WEATHER HERE THROUGH THE REST OF AUGUST AND INTO SEPTEMBER AND IF YOU DO GET THAT EXPANSION IN SOUTH AMERICAN ACREAGE FIRST OFF SOME EARLY ESTIMATES ARE CALLING FOR 5% INCREASE I THINK THAT MIGHT EVEN BE MODEST I THINK IT COULD BE BIGGER THAN THAT AND I THINK THAT THAT JUST BUILDS THE RISK UP IN THIS SOYBEAN MARKET YOU COULD REALLY SEE A SITUATION WHICH YOUR BEAN STOCKS BOTH GLOBALLY AND DOMESTICALLY JUST EXPAND REAL BIG TIME IN BIG A WAY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE YEARS. DEMAND NOT GOING TO EXPAND THAT FAST... DEMAND IS GOING TO EXPAND THAT FAST YOUR CONTINUE TO SEE CHINA BE A BIG BUYER BUT THEIR HISTORICALLY THE LAST FEW YEARS ESPECIALLY KIND OF A INELASTIC DEMAND FOR BEANS THEY'LL BUY IT IF IT'S CHEAP THEY'LL BUY IT IF IT'S HIGH IT DOESN'T MATTER SO DON'T THINK THAT THAT $10 BEANS IS TO CHEAP AND NOT TO SAY I'M REALLY BEARISH THE MARKET BUT THERE'S POTENTIAL FOR LOWER PRICES THERE IF THE RIGHT THINGS HAPPEN. THANK YOU JOE VACLAVIK HERE AT AGDAY BACK WITH MORE IN A MOMENT.
WX:
WELCOME BACK TO AGDAY. MIKE TAKING A LOOK AT THE WEATHER MAP HERE... IT LOOKS LIKE WE'VE REALLY GOT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. YEAH MORE COOL PLEASANT AIR SPREADING SOUTHWARD ONCE AGAIN AS WE'VE SEEN MULTIPLE TIMES THIS SUMMER. STORM SYSTEM THIS MORNING IN THE GREAT LAKES MOVING NORTHWARD SO THAT'S GOING TO CONTINUE TO CAUSE SOME AREAS OF SHOWERS IN THE GREAT LAKES THEMSELVES. BUT MOST OF THE RAIN IS GOING TO BE WHERE ALL OF THE MOISTURE IS AND THAT'S EAST OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HIGH PRESSURE STILL DOMINATING THE FAR NORTHEAST AND WE HAVE THAT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT'S KIND OF SEMI-PERMANENT THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THE SOUTHWEST. THAT WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP UP SOME PACIFIC MOISTURE AND GIVE SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OUT THAT WAY AS YOU CAN SEE. THOSE WILL BE DEVELOPING AS IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BUT THE STUFF IN THE EAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THAT WAY AND IT WILL BE AN ALL DAY THING IN SOME LOCATIONS AT LEAST ON AGAIN OFF AGAIN CLOSE TO THAT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND THEN INTO PARTS OF PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK. HEADING THROUGH TONIGHT EVERYTHING CONTINUES TO SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD. THEN A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR COMING INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AS YOU CAN SEE. BUT THERE'S STILL SOME MOISTURE BUT THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND AS WE HEAD THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY INTO TODAY TOMORROW. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAINLY IN FLORIDA AS WE START THE DAY... AND YOU'LL NOTICE OUR COMPUTER MODEL HAS SOME MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN IT REALLY KICKS UP THE ACTIVITY FOR LATER ON TOMORROW. SO THAT'S SOME GOOD NEWS FOR THOSE FOLKS. HOPEFULLY GET SOME RAIN IN SOME OF THE REAL DROUGHT AREAS. AND TAKING A LOOK AT MOISTURE YOU CAN SEE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS NOT A LOT OUT WEST. MOST OF IT HAS BEEN IN THE EAST AND MOST OF IT HAS BEEN IN THE TENNESSEE OHIO VALLEY AND THE GREAT LAKES. ADDING ON THE NEXT 36 HOURS YOU CAN SEE MOST OF IT IS GOING TO BE FROM THE APPALACHIAN EASTWARD INTO VIRGINIA, NORTHWARD AND A FAIR AMOUNT. SOME AREAS MAY GET 2-3 INCHES OF RAIN SIMILAR TO WHAT FELL YESTERDAY BACK IN PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND YOU CAN SEE A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE SHOWING UP OUT WEST THERE. ESPECIALLY IN ARIZONA ON OUR COMPUTER MODEL... AND THAT KEEPS TEMPERATURES DOWN BELOW THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK IN MOST LOCATIONS. EVEN TEXAS FOR TODAY IS GOING TO BE ONLY IN THE 90'S RATHER THAN SEEING TRIPLE DIGITS LIKE LAST WEEK. 50'S AND 60'S FOR LOWS ACROSS THE HEART OF THE COUNTRY AND THEN YOU HEAD INTO THE DAY TOMORROW YOU CAN SEE THE LACK OF HEAT THROUGH THE PLAINS. YOU HAVE TO GO WAY DOWN INTO TEXAS TO FIND THE 90'S. LOTS OF 70'S AND 80'S EVEN A FEW 60'S IN THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. JET STREAM AS YOU CAN SEE WE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THAT TROUGH SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BUT IT CUTS OFF FOR A WHILE AND SO AFTER THAT MOVES AWAY WE'LL BEGIN TO SEE A LITTLE BIT MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW AND THAT MAY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO START TO WARM UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CORN BELT AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT'S A LOOK ACROSS THE COUNTRY NOW LETS TAKE A LOOK AT SOME LOCAL FORECASTS. FIRST OF ALL FOR RENO NEVADA PARTLY SUNNY MAYBE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN SOME AREAS HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 85... KANSAS CITY MISSOURI MOSTLY SUNNY COMFORTABLY WARM. LOW HUMIDITY HIGH OF 80 AND CHARLOTTE NORTH CAROLINA WARM AND HUMID... A THUNDERSTORM IN SOME AREAS HIGH AROUND 85…
ITC SEAFOOD COOKOFF:
4-H'ERS IS USED TO ENTERING COOKING COMPETITIONS. I'M SURE MANY OF YOU BROUGHT HOME BLUE RIBBONS FROM THE COUNTY AND STATE FAIRS IN RECENT WEEKS. THE GREAT AMERICAN SEAFOOD COOK-OFF IS A GRAND STAGE FOR 4-H'ERS TRYING OUT THEIR CULINARY SKILLS WITH CRUSTACEANS AND OTHER SEAFARING TREATS. TOBIE BLANCHARD HAS DETAILS IN THIS FEATURE STORY FROM THE LSU AGCENTER.
SUGAR MARKETS:
SUGAR IS OH SO SWEET, BUT OUR LOVE FOR IT HAS OBESITY, DIABETES AND HEART DISEASE ON THE RISE. THAT HAS THE MARKET POISED FOR MORE COMPETITION FROM TRADITIONAL SUGARS BY A GROWING LIST OF ALTERNATIVES.
RFD PROMO:
CLINTON…TUESDAY ON AGDAY, COMPARING THE 2009 GROWING SEASON TO 2014. COULD THIS YEAR BE BETTER? PLUS THE PRICE SPREAD FROM CORN TO BEANS MAY START IMPACTING MARKETS FOR NEXT YEAR. AND HOW RUSSIAN SANCTIONS COULD SOFTEN DAIRY PRICES...

TUESDAY ON RFD...

STATION PROMO:
CLINTON… WEDNESDAY ON AGDAY... USDA ROLLS OUT ANOTHER BIG REPORT. WHAT COULD IT MEAN FOR ROW CROP FARMERS AND PRICES AT HARVEST... HOW CAN DAIRY PRODUCERS MAKE MORE MONEY IN 2014 AND A LOOK AT FARM COUNTRY WEATHER MID WEEK.

JOIN ME WEEKDAYS FOR AGDAY.

 
 

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