AgDay Daily Recap -July 11, 2014

July 11, 2014 02:57 AM
 

 

 

TODAY ON AGDAY
JULY 11, 2014
 
OPEN HEADLINES:
COMING UP TODAY ON AGDAY - GOVERNMENT FORECASTERS GIVE THEIR LATEST ESTIMATE ON EL NINO KANSAS WHEAT HARVEST IS IN THE HOMESTRETCH.... WE'RE IN KANSAS FOR COVERAGE OF THE 3-I SHOW. THAT STORY TODAY ON AGDAYHOW MUCH LONGER CAN THIS SLIDE IN CORN AND SOYBEAN MARKETS LAST? WE'LL TALK ABOUT IT IN THE PROFARMER PROFIT BRIEFING.
AND THE TOP AG AGENCY CATCHES FIRE FOR A RECENT FOOD RECALL. AGDAY BROUGHT TO YOU BY CHEVY SILVERADO THE 2014 NORTH AMERICAN TRUCK OF THE YEAR.
EL NINO UPDATE:
CLINTON…GOOD MORNING I'M TYNE MORGAN. CLINTON GRIFFITHS IS ON ASSIGNMENT IN KANSAS. GOVERNMENT FORECASTERS DRAW A CLEARER PICTURE OF THE RETURN OF WEATHER-MAKING EL NINO… ...AND THAT'S OUR TOP STORY ON AGDAY.
RIPPY EL NINO:
LET'S TAKE A MODERATE EL NINO LETS LET'S AIR ON THE HIGH END AND SAY THAT MAYBE WE'LL GET INTO THAT TERRITORY CERTAINLY THE DROUGHT AREAS OF THE US FROM CALIFORNIA TO TEXAS THAT AREA WILL BENEFIT BECAUSE THAT'S A WET SIGNAL BUT IT DOESN'T HAPPEN UNTIL THE COLD SEASON SO WE'RE BEYOND THE 2014 GROWING SEASON BEFORE WE SEE THE REAL IMPACT OF THAT BUT THAT COULD BE A BIG BOOM FOR CALIFORNIA AND ALL THE WAY EVEN THE LINGERING DROUGHT AREAS IN THE GREAT PLAINS WOULD GET RAIN FROM THAT. BUT HE SAYS IF YOU'RE IN A DROUGHT AREA, YOU CAN'T BANK ON THE RELIEF AT THIS POINT.  HE SAYS THERE'S A BIG DISTINCTION BETWEEN A STRONG, MODERATE OR WEAK EL NINO. THE STRONGER THE EVENT, THE MORE DEFINED FORECASTS CAN BE WITH WETTER WEATHER. BUT THE WEAKER THE EVENT, ANYTHING GOES
DROUGHT MONITOR:
MEANWHILE, THE LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR SHOWS THE DROUGHT IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U-S ISN'T GETTING WORSE, BUT IT'S NOT IMPROVING EITHER. IN CALIFORNIA, DROUGHT LEVELS ARE UNCHAGED WITH MORE THAN 36 PERCENT UNDER THE MOST SEVERE LEVEL OF DROUGHT.AND NEARLY 79 PERCENT ISN'T FAR BEHIND, CONSIDERED TO BE IN THE EXTREME CATEGORY. THE LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR DOES SHOW SOME DEVELOPING DROUGHT IN THE SOUTHEAST. MORE THAN 14 PERCENT OF THAT AREA IS ABNORMALLY DRY, UP FROM JUST 4 PERCENT LAST WEEK. LARGE POCKETS IN GEORGIA, THE CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA REALLY NEED MOISTURE.  AND THE HURRICANE LAST WEEK DIDN'T PROVIDE MUCH RELIEF TO THOSE AREAS.
KS WHEAT HARVEST:
DROUGHT HAS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED IN THE SUNFLOWER STATE. AND THAT'S WELCOME NEWS FOR KANSAS FARMERS WHO DEALT WITH TWO EXTREMES THIS WITNER AND SPRING.
BUT IT WAS TOO LITTLE TOO LATE FOR MUCH OF THE STATE'S WHEAT CROP.
USDA REPORTS:
CLINTON…USDA IS SET TO RELEASE ITS MONTHLY SUPPY AND DEMAND REPORT TODAY AT 12 EASTERN. AND A RUETERS POLL SHOWS TRADERS AREN'T EXPECTING FRIENDLY NUMBERS, WITH A BIG INCREASE IN 2014 THROUGH 2015 SOYBEAN CARRYOVER .  IT'S EXPECTED TO MORE THAN TRIPLE FROM THE END OF THIS YEAR WITH THE AVERAGE PRE-REPORT TRADE GUESS AT 418 MILLION BUSHELS
CROP WATCH:
CLINTON…EARLIER WE HEARD ABOUT NOAA'S FORECAST FOR A WEAK TO MODERATE EL NINO. OUR OWN MIKE HOFFMAN HAS BEEN IN THAT CAMP FOR MONTHS. HE'S HERE NOW WITH CROPWATCH AND HIS TAKE ON THE LATEST NEWS FROM NOAA.
CALIFORNIA PIG EXHIBIT:
CLINTON…THANKS, MIKE. ANOTHER STATE HAS SAID IT WON'T HAVE A LIVE PIG EXHIBIT AT THE STATE FAIR. AND IT'S ALL OVER FEARS OF P-E-D-V, A DEADLY PIG VIRUS, SPREADING FURTHER. CALIFORNIA SAYS IT WON'T HAVE THE LIVE BIRTHING EXHIBIT THIS YEAR.
INSTEAD, THEY WILL HAVE EXPERTS ONHAND TO EXPLAIN TO FAIRGOERS THE DEVESTATING IMPACT P-E-D-V IS HAVING ON THE NATION'S HERD. EARLIER THIS YEAR NEW YORK STATE FAIR ANNOUNCED IT WON'T HAVE ITS PIG OR SOW EXHIBIT THIS YEAR, ALSO BECAUSE OF THE VIRUS.
MISSOURI DEER:
AND MISSOURI CONSEVATIONISTS ARE MARKING UP A BIG WIN.  IT'S BEEN A BIG DEBATE ON WHETHER DEER SHOULD BE CONSIDERED WILDLIFE OR LIVESTOCK. A BILL APPROVED BY BOTH THE STATE HOUSE AND SENATE WOULD REDEFINE DEER AS LIVESTOCK, SHIFTING MANAGEMENT CONTROL FROM THE STATE'S DEPARTMENT OF CONSERVATION TO THE DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE.  DEER FARMERS IN THE SHOW-ME STATE SAID THEY'RE FIGHTING TO STAY IN BUSINESS, AND THE RECLASSIFICATION WOULD BE A MAJOR HELP.
HOWEVER, MISSOURI GOVERNOR NIXON VETOED THIS MEASURE LATE THIS WEEK, CITING CHANGES WOULD GO AGAINST THE STATE CONSTITUTION.
TEASE:
CLINTON…GRAIN PRICES JUST KEEP TUMBLING. OUR PARTNERS AT PROFARMER WILL ANALYZE THE PATH THEIR TAKING.
PROFIT BRIEFING INTRO:
AFTER THE LAST MAJOR GRAIN REPORT FROM USDA, PRICES TOOK A BIG HIT. TRADERS RESPONDED BEARISHLY TO THE MUCH LARGER SOYBEAN CROP. AND VERY STRONG CROP CONDITION RATINGS DON'T BOLSTER CORN PRICES EITHER.
WHAT CAN WE EXPECT AS WE PREPARE FOR ANOTHER GOVERNMENT REPORT LATER THIS MORNING. CHIP FLORY AND BRIAN GRETE JOIN US FROM THE PROFARMER STUDIOS WITH THIS WEEK'S PROFIT BRIEFING.
PROFIT BRIEFING:
BRIAN WE GOT THE NEGATIVE NUMBERS THAT MAYBE WE FEARED BACK ON JUNE 30TH IN THE ACREAGE NUMBERS AND IN THE GRAINS STOCKS NUMBERS REALLY KIND ACCELERATED US DOWN AND THEN WE GET THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY HOLIDAY AND MORE PRICE PRESSURE ON THE MARKETS THIS KIND OF A DANGEROUS TIME OF THE YEAR FOR THESE MARKETS. WELL HISTORY WOULD SAY COMING OUT OF THE 4TH OF JULY EITHER ACCELERATE THE CURRENT TREND OR YOU REVERSE IT AND WE'VE ACCELERATED IT SO THAT WOULD INDICATE THAT THERE IS PROBABLY MORE NEAR TERM PRICE PRESSURE IN HERE AT LEAST INTO LATE SUMMER MAYBE INTO HARVEST SEASON. OKAY RUN IT DOWN REAL QUICK WHAT'S DRIVING IT WHAT'S DRIVING THESE PRICES DOWN. CROP WEATHER I MEAN THEY THINK BIG CROPS ARE COMING WEATHER NEAR IDEAL I SEE THAT COMMENT WRITTEN A LOT ON THE WIRE SERVICES TALKED ABOUT A LOT AND DIFFERENT PUBLICATIONS AND EVEN THOUGH THERE'S SOME PROBLEM AREAS OUT THERE AS A WHOLE WHEN WE LOOK AT USDA'S CROP RATINGS 75% GOOD TO EXCELLENT ON CORN 72% GOOD TO EXCELLENT ON SOYBEANS IT'S REALLY HARD TO CONVINCE TRADERS THERE'S ANY PROBLEMS. OKAY SO IF IF WE ARE GOING AT LEAST GOING TO STOP THE BLEEDING IN THE CORN AND SOYBEAN MARKETS AND MAYBE GET INTO A SIDEWAYS PATTERN FOR A WHILE OR EVENTUALLY TURN THESE PRICES BACK TO THE UPSIDE WHAT'S IT GOING TO TAKE. IT'S PROBABLY MORE OF A PRICE THAN ANYTHING I THINK YOU KNOW AFTER YOU FALLEN SO FAR SO HARD THEN YOU GET TO A POINT WHERE YOU KNOW SAY OKAY MAYBE IT'S GONE TOO FAR AT THIS POINT IN TIME THESE MARKETS ARE OVER SOLD SO WE'RE PROBABLY GETTING CLOSE TO THAT RIGHT NOW NOVEMBER BEANS APPROACHING 10.88 AND A QUARTER WHICH WAS THE JANUARY DOUBLE BOTTOM YOU KNOW WE'VE GOT CORN AROUND THE 4 DOLLAR MARK TIPPING BELOW THERE SO I THINK WE'RE GETTING CLOSE TO THOSE LEVELS THAT MAYBE SHOULD STOP THIS SLIDE. OKAY CORN VERSUS SOYBEANS NEW CROP CONTRACTS NOVEMBERS BEANS DECEMBER CORN WHICH ONES GOT MORE DOWNSIDE PRICE RISK AT THIS TIME. I THINK IT'S MORE BEARISH SCENARIO FOR SOYBEANS BY FAR. AND IT'S BECAUSE OF THE BIG ACRES. THE BIG ACRES THE LONGER TERM OUTLOOK PROJECTIONS FOR FOR CARRYOVER INTO 14 15 YOU KNOW IT'S JUST THE WHOLE FUNDAMENTAL PICTURE RIGHT NOW FAVORS THE CORN MARKET AS BEING A LITTLE BIT MORE FRIENDLY THEN SOYBEANS WHICH IS MORE BEARISH. OKAY DO YOU GO AHEAD AND MAKE SOME NEW CROP SALES IF YOU HAVEN'T DONE THAT YET OR DO YOU JUST KIND OF WAIT AND SEE HOW THE MARKETS ARE GOING TO REACT AT THESE NEW PRICE LEVELS. WELL IF YOU HAVEN'T MADE ANY SALES YET OBVIOUSLY THERE A LITTLE BIT OF PANIC PROBABLY ON YOUR PART BUT YOU KNOW I THINK I WOULD GIVE IT A CHANCE IN HERE TO SEE IF SOMETHING YOU KNOW IF WE CAN BECAUSE WERE OVERSOLD IF WE CAN GET A LITTLE BIT OF SHORT TERM POP SOMETHING LIKE THAT I'M NOT LOOKING FOR EXTENDED PRICE STRENGTH BUT YOU HAVE THE LAW OF AVERAGE SAYS WERE NOT GOING TO GO DOWN AT THE PACE WE'VE GONE DOWN FOREVER. YEA AND IT'S IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER NOT EVERY BODIES COMPLAINING ABOUT THESE LOWER PRICES ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THINGS WE'VE GOT VERY HIGH HOG PRICES VERY HIGH CATTLE PRICES AND NOW WE'VE GOT OUR FEED COSTS DECLINING IT'S A GOOD SITUATION FOR THE LIVESTOCK GUYS. EXCELLENT SITUATION FOR THE LIVESTOCK GUYS AND THEY SUFFERED THE YEARS OF PAIN AND MADE IT THROUGH IT AND NOW IT'S REVERED AND YOU KNOW THEIR MAKING MONEY ON THE MEAT SIDE OF THINGS NOW THEY HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO LOCK IN CHEAPER FEED PRICES SO YOU HAVE TO TAKE THOSE OPPORTUNITIES. ABSOLUTELY ALRIGHT FOR BRIAN GRADY AND ALL THE EDITORS AT PROFAMER IN CEDAR FALLS IOWA I'M CHIP FLORY
WX:
WELCOME BACK TO AGDAY, NOW FOR A CHECK OF WEATHER AND MIKE HOFFMAN TO GET OFF HIS POLAR VORTEX SOAP BOX HE DOESN'T LIKE CALLING IT A POLAR VORTEX. I'M JUST SAYING IT'S BEEN AROUND FOR EONS AND ALL OF A SUDDENLY WE START CALLING IT THAT. I'VE ALWAYS JUST SAID THE ARTIC EXPRESS. YEAH. IT'S THE JET STREAM BRINGING DOWN THE COLD AIR. SEE TOLD HE WAS ON HIS SOAPBOX. POLAR VORTEX IS PART OF THE STREAM. SO WHAT SHOULD WE EXPECT HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND MIKE, WE, WE DO HAVE SOME COLD AIR NEXT WEEK. PROBABLY BREAKING SOME RECORDS IN THE CORN BELT IN THE MEANTIME... WE ARE GOING TO GET A STEM MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST MOVING ACROSS THE CORNBELT WITH SOME MOISTURE AND LOTS OF AREAS ARE GOING TO GET SOME OF IT. BUT DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH IN SOME AREAS A LOT… IN SOME AREAS NOT SO MUCH...HIGH PRESSURE RIGHT NOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES KEEPING THINGS NICE AND DRY IN THE EASTERN CORN BELT AND MOST OF THE NORTHEAST. A LITTLE SYSTEM IN THE MID ATLANTIC... PUTTING SOME MOISTURE THERE AND OF COURSE YOU CAN USE ALL THE MOISTURE YOU CAN GET IN PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC THAT SUDDENLY TURN PRETTY DRY OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS. YOU HAVE A LITTLE BIT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS SO HOPEFULLY YOU'LL GET A LITTLE BIT MORE BEFORE THIS SYSTEM MOVES OFF. YOU CAN SEE IT BASICALLY FROM THE FOUR CORNER REGION INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE ROCKIES GOING TO BE SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND. I DON'T SEE ANYTHING FOCUSED QUITE YET ON THE REST OF TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT YOU'LL SEE THAT WE DO START TO GET A LITTLE BIT OF A FOCUS THERE OVER IOWA AND ILLINOIS WHERE YOU MIGHT SEE A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. THIS WARM FRONT STILL A LITTLE BIT OF MOISTURE IN EH SOUTHEAST AS THIS COLD FRONT KIND OF DRAGS HEELS THROUGH THAT AREA. AND YOU CAN SEE AS WE HEAD ITO THE AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW, ON ONTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND, STILL A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND EAST OF THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AND OUR MODELS SHOWING A DECENT AMOUNT THERE BACK IN THE FOUR CORNERS, ESPECIALLY COLORADO WITH THAT FRONT KIND OF LINGERING IN THAT REA. THERE'S THE REALLY COLD, COLD FRONT. PROBABLY AGAIN GOING TO BREAK SOME RECORDS NEXT WEEK FOR COLD, OF COURSE IT IS JULY. SO YOU'RE NOT TALKING ANYTHING BRUTAL. BUT NONETHELESS, CHILLY FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR... PRECIP ESTIMATES OVER THE PAST 24 HORUS WE'VE SEEN SOME POCKETS MID ATLANTIC SOME AREAS GOT SOME DECENT AMOUNTS AND SOME POCKETS IN THE SOUTHERN A NORTHERN PLAINS WITH SOME DECENT AMOUNTS OF RAIN. ADDING ON THE NEXT 36 HOURS OUR COMPUTER MODEL SHOWS A FAIR AMOUNT OF IT KIND OF TRACKS THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS IN TO WESTERN LAKES AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF IT IN THE SOUTHEAST. LET'S CHECK TEMPS AND YOU CAN SEE STILL PRETTY HOT FOR THE KANSAS AREA SOUTHWARD. BUT COOL TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST… THAT'S STARTING TO GO O AWAY FOR THE A COUPLE OF DAY THOUGHT. LOWS TONIGHT NOT NEARLY AS CHILLY BUT STILL ON THE COOL SIDE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THE NORTHEAST... WARMING UP IN TO THE PLAINS STATES AND THEN AS YOU CAN SEE THE HEAT STARTS TO BUILD INTO ST LOUIS KANSAS CITY AS WE HEAD THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. BUT THE COOLER AIR IS GOING TO START COMING BACK SOUTHWARD. THERE'S THE JET STREAM AND YOU CAN SEE THE TROPH THAT'S LEAVING US. THE BIG TROPH START TO COME IN AS WE HEAD TO THE WEEKEND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO NEXT WEEK. IT REALLY TAKES A BIG DIP ALL THE WAY INTO DIXIE AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK WITH SOME CHILLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOME CHILLY AIR HEADING PRETTY FAR SOUTH. THAT'S A LOOK ACROSS THE COUNTRY; NOW LETS TAKE A LOOK AT SOME LOCAL FORECASTS. FIRST SACREMENTO CALIFORNIA TODAY MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM MORE THE SAME I SUPPOSE WITH A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 87. PIERRE SOUTH DAKOTA… VARIABLY CLOUDY A SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE… HIGH OF TEMP OF 86, AND FRANKFURT KENTUCKY… MOSTSLY SUNNY AND WARM HIGH F 86…
PRESERVING WETLANDS:
SOME FARMERS ARE BLESSED WITH GREAT LANDS. WHILE OTHERS WORK WITH MARGINAL SOILS, DOING THEIR BEST TO GET THE MOST OUT OF WHAT THEY HAVE. USDA IS NOW TRYING TO HELP FARMERS AND RANCHERS PROTECT BOTH FARMLANDS AND WETLANDS THROUGH A NEW CONSERVATION PROGRAM. BUT AS USDA'S BOB ELLISON TELLS US, IT'S ALSO ABOUT PRESERVING THE MOST VALUABLE RESOURCE THEY HAVE.
RFD PROMO:
FRIDAY ON AGDAY - WILL PARCHED CALIFORNIA GET HELP FROM EL NINO THIS SUMMER?
WE'LL HAVE THE NEWEST FORECAST. PLUS CLINTON GRIFFITHS REPORTS FROM THE KANSAS WHEAT HARVEST. AND HOW FAR WILL GRAIN PRICES SLIDE? JOIN US EIGHT EASTERN ON RFD.
STATION PROMO:
MONDAY ON AGDAY WE'LL TAKE YOU TO ONE OF THE BUSIEST REGIONS OF THE COUNTRY FOR FEED LOTS TO SEE HOW RECORD PRICES ARE IMPACTING BUSINESS.
PLUS MACHINERY PETE JOINS US WITH SOME OF THE BEST EQUIPMENT DEALS AROUND.
JOIN US MONDAY ON AGDAY.
 
 
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