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AgDay Daily Recap -July 14, 2014

July 14, 2014
 
 

 

TODAY ON AGDAY
JULY 14, 2014

 OPEN HEADLINES:
COMING UP TODAY ON AGDAY - PRICES RETREAT AS GOVERNMENT DATA SHOWS BIG SUPPLIES OF GRAIN. WE HAVE DATA AND EXCLUSIVE ANALYSIS. MARKET BEARS ARE IN EXTREMELY CONTROL OF THIS MARKET AND BULLS ARE ON THE DEFENSIVEWE'RE IN WESTERN KANSAS FOR THE 3I SHOW HOW ARE FEEDERS FAIRING IN THE RECORD HIGH MARKETS THAT STORY TODAY ON AGDAY. HOW DO YOU MAKE ROBOTS MORE LIFE-LIKE? THE ANSWER SEEMS TO BE IN A FISH TANK. AGDAY-BROUGHT TO YOU BY CHEVY SILVERADO THE 2014 NORTH AMERICAN TRUCK OF THE YEAR.
WHEAT:
THANKS, BRIAN. USDA TRIMMED WINTER WHEAT PRODUCTION FROM ITS JUNE FORECAST TO ONE-POINT-EIGHT BILLION BUSHELS. THAT'S DOWN ONE PERCENT.

YIELD WAS TRIMMED EVER SO SLIGHTLY BY TWO-TENTHS OF A BUSHEL.

AS WE REPORTED FROM KANSAS FRIDAY, THE WHEAT CROP STRUGGLED WITH WET CONDITIONS. MEANWHILE USDA SAYS SPRING WHEAT PRODUCTION IS UP SIX PERCENT.

SCOTT IRWIN:
THE REPORTS INDICATE USDA IS NOT CONVINCED THIS YEAR'S CORN CROP WILL BE THE BIGGEST EVER. FOR NOW, IT'S NOT AS BIG AS LAST YEARS.

UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS AG ECONOMIST SCOTT IRWIN SAYS THE BIG CROP SUSPICIONS ARE BECAUSE OF THE HEAVY RAINS IN IOWA LAST MONTH.

KANSAS FEEDERS:
END-USERS OF CORN ARE GENERALLY PLEASED WITH THE OUTLOOK OF CORN BECAUSE IT TRANSLATES INTO LOWER INPUT COSTS. IN THE CASE OF A FEEDLOT, IT MEANS LOWER FEED COSTS.WHILE COVERING THE THREE-I SHOW IN WESTERN KANSAS, CLINTON GRIFFITHS STOPPED BY A FEEDLOT WHICH IS STRUGGLING TO FIND ENOUGH CATTLE.
3I SHOW:
THANKS CLINTON. WHILE WE DON'T HAVE OFFICIAL NUMBERS, ATTENDANCE AT THE 3-I SHOW MAY HAVE STRUGGLED A BIT BECAUSE OF WEATHER-IMPACTED HARVEST.AS CLINTON REPORTED FRIDAY, WHEAT HARVEST IN KANSAS HAS BEEN DELAYED BECAUSE OF RECENT RAINS.
SOME FARMERS ARE STILL IN THE FIELD. THE THREE-I SHOW IS CELEBRATING ITS 60TH YEAR. THE WESTERN KANSAS MANUFACTURERS ASSOCIATION SPONSORS THE SHOW AS A WAY TO CELEBRATE THE IMPORTANCE OF INDUSTRY, IMPLEMENTS AND IRRIGATION - THE THREE "EYES".
CROP WATCH:
ALABAMA WHEAT GROWERS HAD SOME NICE HARVEST WEATHER. MIKE HOFFMAN HAS DETAILS THIS MORNING, MIKE.
TEASE: WE'VE SEEN THE NUMBERS, BUT WHAT WERE THE REAL CURVE BALLS IN FRIDAY'S USDA REPORT? TODAY'S ANALYST HAS THE ANSWER PLUS AN OVERVIEW OF HOW CROPS LOOK FROM A RECENT CROP TOUR.
ANALYSIS INTRO:
EARLIER IN THE SHOW WE HIGHLIGHTED THE LATEST USDA SUPPLY AND DEMAND REPORT. BUT WERE THERE ANY BIG SHOCKERS? AGRIBUSINESS DIRECTOR AL PELL ASKS PETER MEYER OF PIRA ENERGY GROUP, IN THIS MORNING'S ANALYSIS.
PETE MEYER ANALYSIS:
 THE ONLY THING THAT SURPRISED ME WAS THE WAS THE WHEAT CARRYOUT SO THERE'S NOTHING THAT YOU SHOULD THAT THAT IS OF A SURPRISE IN IT I MEAN THE ACREAGE NUMBERS WERE RELEASED A WEEK AGO MONDAY WITH THE ACREAGE WITH THE ACREAGE REPORT THOSE JUST TRANSPOSED INTO REPORT YIELDS WERE KEPT THE SAME DEMAND LOWERED A LITTLE BIT DUE TO THE QSR TO ME IT DOESN'T WARRANT A REACTION I GOT INITIALLY. YEA BUT ALSO BRAZIL RELEASED INFORMATION THAT THEY'RE GOING TO HAVE MORE WHEAT THAT WAS IN OR MORE CORN AND CHINA'S ALSO TALKING ABOUT THEIR CORN BUT YOU SOMETIMES CAN'T BELIEVE THEIR CHINA YOU'RE SMILING. WELL CHINA HAS A RECORD CROP EVERY YEAR JUST ASK THEM. WELL YEA THAT'S TRUE. AND AS FAR AS BRAZILIAN CORN IS CONCERNED THEY ALWAYS SAY THAT THEY HAVE MORE CORN AND I YOU KNOW IF WE WENT TO BRAZIL I COULD SHOW YOU PILES OF 2012 AND 2011 CORN IS THERE IT MAY NEVER MAKE IT OUT OF THE COUNTRY. OH REALLY. YEA NOT I NEVER REALLY WORRY MUCH ABOUT THE BRAZILIAN CORN IS IT IS IT COMPETING WITH US NOW YES BUT THE PROBLEM NOW IS THAT WE'RE AT THE END OF A MARKETING YEAR AND THERE'S NO DEMAND UNTIL THE NEW CROP THE NEW CROP GETS HARVESTED SO. WELL THAT'S PROBABLY TRUE TO THE SAME THING TRUE WITH SOYBEANS AND SOYBEANS TOOK A BIG HIT. WELL I MEAN THERE WERE THERE WHERE OBVIOUSLY THE 2013 CROP WAS BIGGER THAN WE THOUGHT THE QSR TOLD US THAT…YEA. BY ADDING 15 OR 20 MILLION BUSHELS INTO THE ENDING STOCKS ID NOT A NOT A BIG DEAL IT GIVE THEM A LITTLE BIT MORE WIGGLE ROOM BUT YEA I WAS A BIT SURPRISES THAT THEY PUBLISHED A CARRYOUT WITH A 4 HANDLE IN FRONT OF IT I REALLY ONLY THOUGHT THEY'D BE AROUND 3.90 MY FINAL NUMBERS WHERE THEY ARE NOW AT 4.15 I HAVE A LITTLE BIT LOWER YIELD THAN WHERE THEY ARE NOW SO YEA LOOK AL WE BOTH KNOW SOYBEANS ARE AN AUGUST CROP. WELL YEA THAT'S TRUE NOW QUESTION ABOUT THAT. AND THE SOYBEAN CROP HAS A LONG WAY TO GO HERE I MEAN YES IT LOOKS GOOD I'VE TRAVELED THE EASTERN EASTERN PART OF THE BELT LOOKS GOOD BUT YOU KNOW WHAT LETS SEE HOW IT ENDS UP. I'M GOING TO TALK TO YOU ABOUT THAT A LITTLE BIT BUT HOW ABOUT CORN CORN IS BEING MADE RIGHT NOW. I THINK THE CORN LOOKS PRETTY I THINK THAT WERE REALLY HAVING A YEAR WHERE THE GENETICS ARE COMING UP TO SHINE YOU KNOW THE GENETIC SCIENTISTS IN THE SEED COMPANIES HAVE BEEN TELLING US FOR YEARS ALL WE NEED IS ONE GOOD YEAR AND WE CAN PROVE HOW MUCH CORN WE CAN. THIS IS GOING TO BE THE YEAR. THIS IS IT COULD BE COULD BE THEY NEED SOME HEAT UNITS. YEAH CROP IS STILL NOT MADE BUT YEA FROM WHAT WE'VE SEEN SO FAR IT'S A LITTLE BIT DIFFICULT TO GET BULLISH. THANK YOU VERY MUCH TALKING TO PETE MEYER PIRA HERE ON AGDAY BACK WITH MORE IN A MOMENT.
WX:
WELCOME BACK TO AGDAY FOR A CHECK OF WEATHER. MIKE WE'VE BEEN TALKING ABOUT THIS COLD FRONT COMING ACROSS THE MIDWEST NEXT WEEK. SO LET'S LOOK AT THE POSITIVES OF THIS. NEBRASKA HAS BEEN HIT WITH SEVERE STORM AFTER SEVERE STORM. WILL THAT HELP FIGHT AWAY SOME OF THOSE STORMS NEXT WEEK. OH YEAH. ABSOLUTELY…WHEN YOU GET THE JET STREAM COMING OUT OF CANADA WHICH IS MUCH DRYER AND MUCH COOLER YOU WON'T SEE THOSE BIG STORMS AT ALL. WITH THE COLD FRONT YOU CAN BUT ONCE THAT AIR MASS GETS IN HERE, IT SHUTS OFF THE MOISTURE AT LEAST FOR THREE OR FOUR DAYS AND YOU END UP WITH DRYER WEATHER, SO THAT WILL HELP OUT SOME PEOPLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THIS IS VERY CHILLY AIR FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...I THINK THERE WILL BE MANY RECORD SET BOTH COOLEST HIGH EVER ON A DAY AND FOR LOW TEMPS COLDEST EVER ACROSS THE MANY PARTS OF THE CORNBELT. REALLY FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY GREAT LAKES EVEN THE NORTHEAST. SO, GET READY FOR A QUICK SHOT OF CHILLY AIR THIS IS KIND OF LIKE OUR JULY VERSION OF OUR JANUARY COLD SNAP THAT WE SAW AND THAT'S OBVIOUSLY NOT AS BRUTAL, BUT NONETHELESS IT'S VERY CHILLY FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. YOU CAN SEE THE TROPH LINGERING THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK. THEN IT KIND OF PULLS AWAY. AND BY SUNDAY WE'RE LOOKING AT A RIDGE IN THOSE SAME AREAS. WHICH MEANS A PRETTY DRAMATIC WARMUP, AS WE HEAD INTO THIS COMING WEEKEN. BUT THERE IS MORE CHILLY AIR RIGHT BEHIND IT COMING INTO MONTANA AND DAKOTAS AS YOU CAN SEE WITH THE JET STREAM DIPPING SOUTHWARD ON MONDAY. OBVIOUSLY THE TEMPS THIS WEEK PRETTY EASY FORECAST HERE. BELOW NORMAL FROM CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ALL THE WAY TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. WE'LL GO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE SOUTHEAST. YOU MAY HAVE A DAY OR TWO WHERE YOU'RE PRETTY CHILLY FOR THIS TIME OF HT YEAR. BUT THEN YOU START TO WARM UP AGAIN. AND THE WESTERN PARTS OF THIS AREA WILL START TO WARM UP LAST THIS WEEK, BUT IT WON'T BE ENOUGH TO ET YOU BACK TOWARD NORMAL. ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY FOR THIS WEEK.. PRECIPITATION THIS WEEK, WITH THE COLD AIR MASS COMING SOUTHWARD, BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS, OHIO VALLEY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST, HOWEVER WHERE THAT FRONT COMES SOUTHWARD AND KIND OF STALLS OUT THERE IS GOING TO BE AN ABOVE NORMAL AREA. MID ATLANTIC, THAT COULD BE SOME GOOD NEWS FOR YOU FOLKS. MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE FOUR CORNER REGION, GOOD NEWS FOR THIS AREA AS WEL...SO HOPEFULLY THIS IL HELP OUT SOME OF THOSE SPOTS THAT HAVE BEEN TOO WET OR TOO DRY. HERE'S THE 30 DAY OUTLOOK FOR TEMPS. BELOW NORMAL STILL FROM COLORADO NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES…ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE GULF COAST AND THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY… ABOVE NORMAL OUT WEST AS WELL…30 DAY OUTLOOK FOR PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL IN THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTION OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS WHAT WE'RE THINKING. ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE ROCKIES THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS THE GREAT LAKES DOWN INTO THE MIDATLANTIC...AGAIN GOOD NEWS FOR BOTH OF THOSE AREAS…BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FAR NORTHWEST…THAT'S A LOOK ACROSS THE COUNTRY NOW LETS TAKE A LOOK AT SOME LOCAL FORECASTS. FIRST OF ALL FOR PHOENIX ARIZONA PARTLY SUNNY CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM, HIGH OF 102… MINNEAPOLIS, VARIABLY CLOUDY, BREEZY AND CHILLY… HIGH OF ONLY 65, AND CHARLOTTE NORTH CAROLINA. HOT AND HUMID THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE HIGH OF 93…
MACHINERY PETE OPEN:
MACHINERY PETE IS BROUGHT TO YOU BY JOHN DEERE AND YOUR LOCAL JOHN DEERE DEALER. NOTHING RUNS LIKE A DEERE.
BB STRATEGO:
AGDAY BROUGHT TO YOU BY STRATEGO YIELD FUNGICIDE FROM BAYER. PUT'ER THERE EARLY SEASON FOR AN AVERAGE SIX POINT EIGHT BUSHELS AN ACRE BUMP IN CORN YI
CLOSE:
CLINTON…THAT'S ALL THE TIME WE HAVE THIS MORNING. WE'RE GLAD YOU TUNED IN. FOR CLINTON GRIFFITHS, MIKE HOFFMAN, AND AL PELL. I'M TYNE MORGAN. HAVE A GREAT DAY.

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