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AgDay Daily Recap -July 1, 2014

July 1, 2014
 
 

 

TODAY ON AGDAY
JULY 1, 2014
 
OPEN HEADLINES:
COMING UP TODAY ON AGDAY

USDA DROPS AN ACREAGE REPORT THAT DROPS GRAIN PRICES IN ITS WAKE. WE'VE GOT ALL THE NUMBERS AND ANALYSIS. TYNE MORGAN AND ANGIE MAGQUIRE BREAK THINGS DOWN FROM THE AGRIBUSINESS DESK. WHILE ACRES ARE IN, GROWING CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN GOOD IN MOST PLACES. AND WE'LL MEET A MISSOURI MAN, WHO'S PASSIONATE ABOUT PRESERVING HIS FAVORITE MUSIC AND HE'S NOT AFRAID TO SHARE IT. AGDAY BROUGHT TO YOU CHEVY SILVERADO-THE 2014 NORTH AMERICAN TRUCK OF THE YEAR.

USDA REPORTS:
GOOD MORNING I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. SOYBEANS TAKE CENTER STAGE THIS MORNING AS THE GOVERNMENT PUSHES ACREAGE ESTIMATES TO RECORD TERRITORY....AND THAT'S OUR TOP STORY ON AGDAY.
PLANTED ACREAGE:
CORN PLANTED AREA FOR ALL PURPOSES IN 2014 IS ESTIMATED AT 91-POINT-SIX MILLION ACRES, DOWN 4 PERCENT FROM LAST YEAR AND SLIGHTLY CHANGED FROM THE MARCH FORECAST. SOYBEANS ARE WHERE THE BIG CHANGE COMES FROM. PLANTED AREA FOR 2014 IS ESTIMATED AT A RECORD HIGH 84-POINT-EIGHT MILLION ACRES, UP 11 PERCENT FROM LAST YEAR. AND ONE-POINT-SIX MILLION ACRES HIGHER THAN PRE-REPORT ESTIMATES. ALL WHEAT PLANTED AREA FOR 2014 IS ESTIMATED AT 56-AND-A-HALF MILLION ACRES, UP LESS THAN 1 PERCENT FROM 2013.
PROFARMER REAX:
 AS ALWAYS, OUR REPORTING PARTNERS AT PROFARMER NEWSLETTER HAVE SCOURED THE DATA. EDITOR BRIAN GRETE JOINS US FROM THE PROFARMER STUDIOS WITH HIS TAKE ON THE BIG BOOST IN BEANS.
GRAIN STOCKS:
THANKS BRIAN. USDA ALSO RELEASED THE QUARTERLY GRAIN STOCKS REPORT, WHICH SHOWED U-S CORN STOCKPILES AT THREE-POINT-85 BILLION BUSHELS.WHEAT STOCKS CAME IN AT 590 MILLION BUSHELS - THAT'S WITHIN THE RANGE OF PRE-REPORT ESTIMATES. SOYBEAN STOCKPILES COME IN AT 405 MILLION BUSHELS, THAT'S ABOUT 30 MILLION BUSHELS HIGHER THAN MOST PRE-REPORT EXPECTATIONS.
DARREL GOOD:
ONE THING THAT'S UNKNOWN IN TERMS OF ANTICIPATING THAT NUMBER IS THE MAGNITUDE OF IMPORTS DURING THE MONTH FO MAY... CENSUS BUREAU WILL RELEASE THAT LATER THIS WEEK. SINCE WE ARE IMPORTING A LOT OF BEANS THIS YEAR IT MAY HAVE BEEN THAT MAY IMPORTS MAY HAVE LARGER THAN THE MARKET EXPECTED. ANOTHER POSSIBLITIY IS THAT LAST YEARS CROP WAS UNDERESTIMATED WHICH WAS FINALLY REVEALED BY LARGER STOCKS IN THIS REPORT.
COTTON ACREAGE:
THERE'S A BIG TURNAROUND IN COTTON PLANTINGS THIS YEAR. USDA PROJECTS ALL COTTON PLANTED AREA 11-AND-A-HALF MILLION ACRES, 9 PERCENT ABOVE LAST YEAR.COTTON CLOSED DOWN IN RESPONSE.
CROP PROGRESS:
AS FAR AS CROP CONDITION, ABOUT HALF OF THE COTTON FIELDS ARE RATED GOOD TO EXCELLENT. ANOTHER THIRD IS FAIR. SEVEN PERCENT IS STARTING TO SET BOLLS. THAT'S JUST BEHIND THE FIVE YEAR AVERAGE. THE SOYBEAN CROP IS STARTING TO BLOOM IN MOST OF THE BIG BEAN STATES. IT'S AT TEN PERCENT. AND 72-PERCENT OF THE CROP IS RATED GOOD TO EXCELLENT. WE'RE GETTING OUR FIRST LOOK AT CORN IN THE TASSELING STAGE. FIVE PERCENT HAS SILK. THE FIVE YEAR AVERAGE IS NINE PERCENT.AND THREE QUARTERS OF THE CROP IS GOOD TO EXCELLENT AS OF MONDAY'S REPORT. AND LOOKING AT WINTER WHEAT HARVEST…IT REACHED 43-PERCENT COMPLETED. THAT'S FIVE POINTS BEHIND. KANSAS WHEAT GROWERS ARE STARTING TO MAKE-UP GROUND WITH 40-PERCENT NOW CUT. THAT'S A BIG JUMP FROM LAST WEEK BUT STILL 26 POINTS BEHIND AVERAGE. OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS ARE ALSO STILL BEHIND.
WHEAT SCAB:
FARMERS HARVESTING SOFT RED WINTER WHEAT THIS SUMMER SHOULD BE ON THE LOOK OUT FOR A DISEASE CALLED HEAD SCAB. THE SOFT RED WINTER WHEAT DISEASE PLOTS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS ARE ALWAYS INTENTIONALLY INFECTED WITH HEAD SCAB. THAT GIVES EXTENSION PLANT PATHOLOGIST CARL BRADLEY PLENTY TO STUDY. UNFORTUNATELY THE WEATHER WAS JUST RIGHT THIS YEAR AND, IN GENERAL, THERE IS ALSO PLENTY OF HEAD SCAB IN THE SOFT RED WINTER WHEAT CROP AROUND THE NATION. WHILE YOU CAN'T DETER THE DISEASE FOR THIS SEASON YOU CAN MANAGE SOME OF THE FINANCIAL LOSSES BY BLOWING INFECTED KERNELS OUT THE BACK OF YOUR COMBINE.
CROP WATCH:
ANOTHER WET STREAK IN THE CORNBELT, AND IDEAL HARVEST CONDITIONS NEAR CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA… MIKE HOFFMAN HAS DETAILS IN CROPWATCH MIKE.
DTR PROTECT DAIRY:
IN OUR DAIRY TODAY REPORT, TENNESSEE IS TAKING STEPS TO PROTECT ITS DAIRY HERD...IF FOOT AND MOUTH EVER FINDS ITS WAY TO THE UNITED STATES.
DTR BUTTER:
 MEANWHILE AS WE REPORTED EARLIER, BUTTER SUPPLIES REMAIN TIGHT IN THE U.S. MUCH OF THAT DUE TO AN UPTICK IN DEMAND.A REPORT FROM THE WALL STREET JOURNAL SHOWS U.S. BUTTER SALES HIT 5 POINT 6 POUNDS PER PERSON THIS YEAR. THAT'S 22 AND HALF STICKS FOR EVERYONE....A LEVEL NOT SEEN SINCE WORLD WAR TWO. COMBINE MORE DEMAND DOMESTICALLY AND OVER SEAS THE BUTTER MARKET IS BOOMING.
TEASE:
UP NEXT, WE RETURN TO MONDAY'S REPORTS. NATIONAL REPORTER TYNE MORGAN IS AT THE AGRIBUSINESS DESK, POURING THROUGH THE NUMBERS.
CROP INSURANCE:
AN UPDATE ON FARM BILL IMPLEMENTATION SHOWS CROP INSURANCE COMPANINES PROCESSED MORE THAN 354-THOUSAND POLICIES THUS FAR. THE 1 BILLION DOLLARS IN FARMER PREMIUMS PROTECT 113 MILLION ACRES AND REPRESENT 30 BILLION IN LIABILITIES. LAST YEAR, 90 PERCENT OF PLANTED CROPLAND WAS PROTECTED BY CROP INSURANCE.
ANAYLSIS INTRO:
TYNE MORGAN JOINS US NOW FROM THE AGRIBUSINESS DESK WITH CONTINUED REACTION TO MONDAY'S USDA REPORTS…TYNE.
ANALYSIS:
THANKS SO MUCH CLINTON HERE WITH US NOW ANGIE MCGUIRE OF CITIZENS SHE HAS BEEN DIGGING THOUGH THESE REPORTS TRYING TO DIGEST ALL THE NUMBERS TWO BIG REPORTS NOT ONLY DID WE HAVE QUARTERLY GRAIN STOCKS BUT WE HAD ACREAGE SO LOOKING AT ALL THE INFORMATION THAT CAME OUT ON MONDAY WHAT WAS THE BIGGEST SHOCKER TO YOU ANGIE. BIGGEST SHOCKER WAS SOYBEAN ACRES GOING INTO THE REPORT WE HAD ANTICIPATE THAT MAYBE THE TRADE WAS UNDER ESTIMATING SOYBEAN ACRES THAT WERE PLANTED WHEN THE NUMBER CAME OUT AS WHAT IT DID WE WERE ALMOST 2 MILLION ACRES HIGHER THAN WHAT THE AVERAGE TRADE GUESS WAS SO EVEN THOUGH WE WERE EXPECTING THEM TO BE HIGH AND TO LIKELY COME IN HIGHER THEY CAME IN EVEN HIGHER THAN THE HIGH END OF THINGS THAT WE THOUGHT ABOUT PRIOR TO THE REPORT. AND INITIALLY SOYBEANS REALLY TOOK A DIVE AND WAS THIS SOLELY BECAUSE OF THE ACREAGE OR DID GRAIN STOCKS HAVE ANYTHING TO DO WITH THAT. GRAIN STOCKS HAD A LITTLE BIT TO DO WITH IT WE DISCOVERED THAT WE HAD MORE HAND THAN WHAT TRADERS HAD ANTICIPATED THERE HAD BEEN SOME RUMBLINGS ALL ALONG WITH THE WAY THAT SPREAD AND BASIS HAD TRADED THAT PERHAPS WE HAD MORE BEANS THAN WHAT WE HAD A YEAR AGO AND GOING INTO THE REPORT TRADERS THE AVERAGE PRE-REPORT GUESS HAD SHOWN THE TIGHTEST SOYBEANS STOCKS EVER ON RECORD WAS WHAT TRADERS WERE EXPECTING THEY REALLY WEREN'T AS TIGHT AS ANTICIPATED STILL TIGHT BUT IT'S INDICATING WE PROBABLY HAD MORE BEANS PRODUCED LAST YEAR THAN INITIALLY THOUGHT. SO WERE NOT RUNNING OUT OF SOYBEANS LIKE SOME HAD FEARED. WE'RE NOT RUNNING OUT OF SOYBEANS WE'RE STILL TIGHT BUT WE'LL MAKE IT INTO HARVEST AND HAVE SOME BEANS ON HAND. SO WHAT ABOUT CORN I MEAN THE REPORT WASN'T REALLY WAS IT WAS IT REALLY THAT FRIENDLY FOR CORN. ACREAGE WISE WAS FRIENDLY ACRES CAME IN A LITTLE LESS THAN ANTICIPATED BUT FROM A STOCKS NUMBER THEY CAME IN HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED SO WHAT THAT INDICATED WAS EITHER WE'RE USING LESS OR WE HAVE MORE ON HAND THAN INITIALLY THOUGHT I'M GOING TO GO WITH PROBABLY WERE USING A LITTLE BIT LESS ON THE FEED SIDE OF THINGS WITH THE HOGS AND HOGS AND PIGS REPORT WE SAW LAST WEEK WITH THE HERD SIZES DOWN AND THINGS LIKE THAT I THINK WE'RE PROBABLY OVER ESTIMATING SOME FEED USAGE AT THIS POINT. IT WAS NOT A PRETTY REPORT WELL THE REACTION WAS NOT PRETTY SO WHAT'S YOUR BIGGEST ADVICE FOR FARMERS RIGHT NOW. FOR FARMERS RIGHT NOW IS PROBABLY TAKE A LOOK AT WHAT YOU NEED TO DO FOR HARVEST IF YOU KNOW THAT YOU HAVE MOVE GRAIN RIGHT AT HARVEST THERE ARE OPTIONS THAT YOU CAN LOOK AT THERE ARE WAYS TO STOP THE BLEEDING SO TO SPEAK YOU CAN LOOK AT SELLING CASH TAKE ADVANTAGE OF SOME BASIS LEVELS RIGHT NOW ESPECIALLY IF YOU'RE IN AN AREA WHERE THE STOCKS ARE HIGHER AND THE ACRES ARE HIGHER AND IT LOOKS AS THOUGH HARVEST WISE YOU'LL HAVE GOOD AMOUNT OF SUPPLIES COMING IN THERE ARE WAYS THAT YOU CAN LOOK TO  LOCK IN THE BOTTOM SIDE OF THINGS WITH CASH AND PROTECT YOUR UPSIDE THROUGH OPTIONS IF YOU'D LIKE TO. SOME GOOD ADVICE SOME GOOD INSIGHT ANGIE THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR JOINING US WELL WE HAVE MUCH MORE AGDAY TO COME SO DON'T GO ANYWHERE WE'LL BE RIGHT BACK.
WX:
WELCOME BACK TO AGDAY MIKE SOME PRETTY WILD WEATHER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. AND MORE EXPECTED I GUESS. YEAH IT REALLY HAS BEEN. AND I DON'T THINK IT WILL BE QUITE AS MUCH FARTHER EAST AS IT HAS BEEN ACROSS PARTS OF IOWA ILLINOIS, PARTS OF INDIANA HAVE REALLY GOT SLAMMED WITH SOME HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS AND WE'RE STILL CHECKING OUT TO SEE HOW MUCH WIND DAMAGE AFFECTED THE CROPS IN THOSE AREAS. BUT UNFORNTUNATELY THE CORN MAY HAVE BEEN HIT PRETTY HARD IN MUCH OF THE CORN BELT. AND THE COLD FRONT RIGHT NOW IS ACROSS CENTRAL MICHIGAN INTO CENTRAL INDIANA SO THE STORMS HAVE KIND OF WEAKENED A LITTLE BIT SO THERE ARE STILL SOME DIVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE APPALACIANS THIS MORNING. SO YOU KIND OF HAVE TO WATCH THOSE. BUT THEY'LL REFIRE CLOSER TO THE FRONT AS WE HEAD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOOON. SO YOU CAN SEE OHIO DOWN ALONG THE OHIO RIVER BETWEEN INDIANA AND KENTUCKY THOSE WILL BE THE PLACES GETTING THUNDERSTORMS AND THAT WILL STRETCH ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS ARKANSAS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS AS WELL. THAT WILL BE THE FOCAL POINT. SO WE'RE WATCHING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA SOME COMPUTER MODELS TAKE THIS AS A TROPICAL STORM AS IT COMES UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. NOW IT’S SO CLOSE TO LAND THAT IT WOULD HAVE A TOUGH TIME BECOMING A BIG HURRICANE OR ANYTHING. BUT ITS SOMETHING WE HAVE TO WATCH AND IT COULD BE A BIG RAIN PRODUCER AND A WIND PRODUCER WHETHER IT BECOMES A TROPICAL SYSTEM OR NOT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THERE'S THE COLD FRONT BY TOMORROW MORNING. IT’S APPROACHING THE APPALACIANS AT THAT POINT…STILL STATIONARY ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS THAT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS THERE. AND AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW YOU CAN SEE THE FRONT KIND OF FIRE UP AGAIN WITH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS BUT I THINK WE'VE SEEN THE WORST OF THE SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM ALREADY BACK ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. YOU FOLKS GET A REPREIEVE WITH THAT BIG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE COMING IN FOR SEVERAL DAYS FOR A CHANGE ACTUALLY TO DRY THINGS OUT. AND YOU NEED A LOT MORE THAN THAT HIGH IS GOING TO GIVE YOU BUT AT LEAST THIS WILL BE A START. HERE'S WHAT WE'VE SEEN OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AS A PRECIPITATION ESTIMATE. AND YOU CAN SEE THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS, IOWA ILLINOIS, SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INTO MICHIGAN AND INDIANA ADDING ON THE NEXT 36 HOURS WE'LL CONTINUE TO KIND OF SPREAD THE FRONT A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND DEFINITELY A LITTLE FURTHER EAST AND THAT WILL BE WHERE MOST OF THE RAIN OCCURES AS WELL AS SOUTHEAST FLORIDA. ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA THAT'S SOMETHING WE'LL HAVE TO WATCH. LOOK AT THE HEAT IN THE SOUTHWEST TRIPPLE DIGITS IN MANY PLACES EVEN EL PASO EXPECTING THAT TODAY. 90S INTO TEXAS EVERYWHERE SOUTH OF THAT FRONT IT IS MUGGY AIR BUT LOOK AT THE HIGHS UP IN MINESOTA AND NORTH DAKOTA HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60'S THIS AFTERNOON EXPECTED THIS IS THE COOLEST AIR WE'VE SEEN IN A FEW WEEKS. BISMARK DOWN TO 46 TOMORROW MORNING…YOU CAN SEE 50'S ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO NEBRASKA BUT IT’S STILL MUGGY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THAT FRONT AND THAT'S WHERE THE HEAT IS GOING TO BE TOMORROW AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHEAST. ITS GOING TO BE A COOL AIRMASS COMING IN FOR THE FOURTH OR THE START OF THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE GREAT LAKES. LET’S TAKE A LOOK AT THE JET STREAM AND YOU CAN SEE A PRETTY GOOD SIZED TROUGH THERE. WE TALKED ABOUT THIS ONE LAST WEEK. THAT BRINGS A SHOT OF CHILLY AIR INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY BUT THEN THAT KIND OF WEAKENS AND MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST STILL A LITTLE BIT OF A TROUGH LINGERING SO THAT WILL KEEP THE HEAT FROM RETURNING TOO MUCH BUT THE CENTRAL PLAINS MAY GET PRETTY HOT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK IF THAT RIDGE BUILDS UP LIKE THAT. THAT'S A LOOK ACROSS THE COUNRY NOW LETS TAKE A LOOK AT SOME LOCAL FORECASTS. FIRST OF ALL FOR OGDEN UTAH MOSTLY SUNNY… AND COMFORTABLY WARM TODAY HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 85. CHILICOTHE MISSOURI LESS HUMID WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE HIGH OF 82 IN HUNTINGTON WEST VIRGINIA, PARTLY SUNNY HOT…AND HUMID AN EVENING THUNDERSTORM LIKELY HIGH OF 94.
ITC MISSOURI:
HAVE YOU EVER WORKED WITH SOMEONE WHO JUST ISN'T QUITE READY TO GIVE-UP ON TECHNOLOGY OF THE PAST? I HAVE ONE OF THOSE IN MY OFFICE. HE STILL THINKS EIGHT-TRACK PLAYERS ARE STILL PRETTY "NEAT". WELL, THERE'S A RADIO ANNOUNCER IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI WHO KEEPS ALL KINDS OF MUSIC ALIVE. AND IT'S NOT JUST A DOWNLOAD FROM A COMPUTER. IT'S AN IMPRESSIVE COLLECTION OF ALBUMS, CASSETTES AND, YES, PROBABLY EIGHT TRACK TAPES. STEVE GRANT FROM KY-3-TV TUNES US IN.

STATION PROMO:

WEDNESDAY ON AGDAY, A WEATHER EXPERT TRAVELS TO AGDAY STUDIOS FOR A CLOSER LOOK AT WHAT MAYBE IN STORE FOR FARMERS IN THE SEASONS AHEAD. PLUS A CLOSER LOOK AT CROP CONDITIONS AND THE IMPACTS OF THIS WEEK'S WILD WEATHER. JOIN ME WEEKDAYS FOR AGDAY.
RFD PROMO:
CLINTON…TUESDAY ON AGDAY, USDA LATEST CROP REPORTS ARE OUT INCLUDING NEW ESTIMATES FOR PLANTED ACRES. PLUS OUR WEEKLY DAIRY TODAY REPORT AND MEET A MISSOURI MAN PASSIONATE OF ABOUT HIS MUSIC. JOIN ME 8 EASTERN ON RFD.
 
 

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