AgDay Daily Recap -July 21, 2014

July 21, 2014 02:57 AM
 

 

 

TODAY ON AGDAY
JULY 21, 2014
 
OPEN HEADLINES:
COMING UP TODAY ON AGDAY - IS THE LAND RUN ABOUT TO RUN OUT? A LOOK AT LAND VALUES AND THE RURAL ECONOMY… PLUS, ARE DRONES GOING TO BUZZ INTO AMERICA'S FARM FIELDS ANYTIME SOON? IN AGRIBUSINESS....EVALUATING THE OVERALL ECONOMY…AND THIS HISTORIC PLANTATION IS GETTING A MUCH NEEDED RENOVATION THANKS TO A BIG DONATION FROM ONE WEALTHY HISTORY BUFF. AGDAY BROUGHT TO YOU BY CHEVY SILVERADO THE 2014 NORTH AMERICAN TRUCK OF THE YEAR.
BEARISH FARMLAND:
GOOD MORNING I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. AS CORN PRICES DECLINE SO DO THE ATTITUDES OF FARM COUNTRY BANKERS ABOUT THE STRENGTH OF FARMLAND VALUES.
AND THAT'S OUR TOP STORY ON AGDAY.
RECENT SALES:
WALSTEN SAYS WHILE FARMERS ARE A BIT MORE CAUTIOUS RIGHT NOW, SOME ARE STILL AGGRESSIVE IN BUYING HIGH QUALITY LAND THAT'S CLOSE TO THEIR EXISTING FIELDS.
FOR EXAMPLE, A RECENT AUCTION IN SIOUX CITY IOWA FETCHED JUST OVER 20-THOUSAND DOLLARS AN ACRE ON AN 80 ACRE FARM. AND IN NORTH-CENTRAL IOWA FOUR TRACTS OF LAND WENT FOR OVER 19-THOUSAND AN ACRE. ON A "CORN SUITABILITY RATING" OF 100, THOSE PARCELS RANGED FROM 90-TO-97.
DRONE COLLEGE:
FARM JOURNAL'S FIRST EVER DRONE FLY IN TOOK OFF IN HEYWORTH ILLINOIS. THE UNMANNED AERIAL VEHICLES ARE GAINING POPULARITY WITH FARMERS FOR USE IN SCOUTING AND CROP DIAGNOSTICS. SOME ESTIMATES SAY THE UAV INDUSTRY COULD PUMP 82 BILLION DOLLARS INTO THE U.S. ECONOMY BY 2025--MOST OF THAT INTO AGRICULTURE.
THE BIGGEST QUESTION REMAINS HOW REGULATORS WILL HANDLE THIS EXPANDING MARKET.
TEASE:
JUST AHEAD IN AGRIBUSINESS - IS THE MARKET SETTING ITSELF UP FOR A "CORRECTION"? WHAT WILL THIS MEAN FOR FARMERS AND INVESTORS? FARM DIRECTOR AL PELL DISCUSSES NEXT WITH BOB UTTERBACK. WHEAT GENOME:
THERE'S A NEW ROADMAP FOR WHEAT GENTICISTS. THE FIRST EVER GENETIC BLUEPRINT OF THE CROP IS NOW IN THE HANDS OF SCIENTISTS. RESEARCHERS SAY DECIPHERING THE INFORMAITON SHOULD EVENTUALLY HELP IMPROVE PLANT BREEDING AND LEAD TO BETTER PROTECTIONS FROM DISEASE, INSECTS AND DROUGHT. A FULL SEQUENCE OF THE WHEAT GENOME ISN'T EXPECTED FOR ANOTHER 3 YEARS.
ANALYSIS:
OUR GUEST HERE AT THE AGRIBUSINESS DESK IS BOB UTTERBACK OF UTTERBACK MARKETING. BOB, THERE ARE A LOT OF THINGS IN THE MARKET, YOU'RE BEAR, YOU LOOK AT THINGS, HAVE TO, IN ORDER TO BE ABLE TO HAVE THAT POSITION AND MAINTAIN IT, BUT, EVERYTHING WE HAVEN'T TALKED ABOUT AND CONSIDERED, CAN YOU GIVE ME A ONE TWO THREE FOUR? WELL, YOU KNOW, AS PRODUCERS WE'RE ALWAYS FOCUSED ON THE SUPPLY SIDE OF THE EQUATION, OUR PRODUCTION. BUT I'D SAY THERE ARE SOME OUTSIDE VARIABLES THAT WE NEED TO PUT INTO THE EQUATION, THROUGH 2001 2013 WE HAD AN EXPLODING DOMESTIC FEUDALIZATION, WE HAD GOOD LIVESTOCK, BUT WE HAD GOOD ETHANOL POLICY THAT EXPLODED, CAUSED UNPRECEDENTED INCREASE IN USAGE, WE HAD AN EXPORT MARKET EXPLODING BECAUSE OF CHINA, AND AT THE SAME TIME WE HAD A MONETARY POLICY THAT WAS SUPPORTIVE, AND VERY CONDUCIVE TO INFLATIONARY PRESSURE, INTEREST RATES WERE RECORD LOWS. SO NOW WE HAVE A MARKET WHERE THE ETHANOL MARKET IS BASICALLY STABLE, BUT NO POLICY TO PUSH MORE ETHANOL, ACTUALLY CONTRACTING IT, IF THE POLICY COULD, THEY DON'T REALLY WANT TO PUSH ETHANOL. SO IT'S ALL EXPORT MARKET, BUT THE VARIABLE OF THIS MONETARY POLICY, WE HAVE, ALL YOU EVER HEAR ANYBODY TALK ABOUT MONETARY POLICY IS IN FACT, ON COMMODITIES. AND I WOULD SUGGEST TO YOU, WE HAVE A FED NOW THAT KNOWS IT HAS A TIGER BY THE TAIL, IT KEEPS ON, IS PLUNKING MONEY LOWER INTEREST RATES IN THE SYSTEM, EVENTUALLY IT'S GOING TO BITE US. INTEREST RATES GOING TO TAKE OFF, SO I THINK YOU'D BE WORKING ON THAT, THAT'S GOING TO AFFECT SPREADS IN THE FUTURE. I THINK 016 017 SPREADS ARE GOING TO WIDEN, BUT THE EFFECT IS THAT IF WE WOULD HAVE THE STOCK MARKET ALL-TIME HIGHS, PEOPLE HAVE INVESTED IN THE STOCK MARKET BECAUSE THERE IS NO PLACE ELSE TO GO FOR YOUR MONEY, SO WE HAVE A LOT OF SCARED MONEY OR WEAK MONEY IN THE MARKET THAT CANNOT TOLERATE THAT BIG OF A CORRECTION. YOU ALMOST PERPETUATE, WE'RE ONE TICK AWAY FROM A FIVE PERCENT TO A TEN PERCENT CORRECTION, LIKE THE 2008 CORRECTIVE RATE, RIGHT, IF THAT WOULD OCCUR AT THE TIME WE ARE HARVESTING A RELATIVE BIG CORN CROP, OR BEAN CROP, FUNDAMENTALLY, AND TO MUCH EXCESS SUPPLY IT WOULD EXAGGERATE THE DOWNSIDE RISK S MARKET, AND THAT RISK, I THINK, IS A PRETTY SERIOUS RISK WE HAVE TO TALK ABOUT IN THIS SEPTEMBER OCTOBER TIME PERIOD, BE VERY AWARE IF THE STOCK MARKET STARTS BREAKING THIS COULD MAGNIFY THE WEAKNESS OF THE MARKETPLACE. BOB UTTERBACK, UTTERBACK MARKETING, OUR GUEST HERE ON AGDAY...
MACH PETE:
CLINTON… TIME NOW FOR OUR WEEKLY VISIT FROM GREG PETERSON OTHERWISE KNOWN AS MACHINERY PETE...HE JOINS US FROM HIS HOME OFFICE WITH A LOOK AT PRICES FOR A COUPLE NEWER RED COLORED TRACTORS.
RUSSET PRICES:
HARVEST IS GETTING CLOSE FOR RUSSETT POTATO GROWERS. HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THAT CROP ISN'T GOING TO BE WORTH AS MUCH AS IT WAS LAST YEAR.
SCHOOL LUNCHES:
CLINTON…THE SCHOOL LUNCH DEBATE ISN'T SETTLED IN WASHINGTON…AND NOW IT'S GOING UNDER THE MICROSCOPE OF THE SENATE AG COMMITTEE.
CLOSE:
CLINTON…THAT'S ALL THE TIME WE HAVE THIS MORNING. WE'RE GLAD YOU TUNED IN.
FOR MIKE HOFFMAN, AND AL PELL. I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. HAVE A GREAT DAY.
 
 
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