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AgDay Daily Recap -July 28, 2014

July 28, 2014
 
 

 

TODAY ON AGDAY
JULY 28, 2014
 
OPEN HEADLINES:
COMING UP TODAY ON AGDAY - NEW ESTIMATES SAY THE 2014 CROP COULD HIT RECORD TERRITORY…

IN ANALYSIS HOW MUCH LOWER WILL CORN PRICES GO? PLUS THE LATEST CATTLE ON FEED REPORT SHOWS INVENTORY CONTINUE TO FALL. VALUES ON 15 TO 25 YEAR OLD TRACTORS IN GOOD CONDITION HAVE REMAINED REALLY STRONG EVEN SINCE THE PRICE OF CORN DROPPED. STAY TUNED I'LL HAVE TWO EXAMPLES THAT'LL HIGHLIGHT THIS TREND. AND WE'LL TAKE YOU TO A COLLEGE THAT'S SURELY TO "GET YOUR GOAT" AGDAY BROUGHT TO YOU BY THE ALL NEW CHEVY SILVERADO THE 2014 NORTH AMERICAN TRUCK OF THE YEAR.

CROP CONDITIONS:
GOOD MORNING I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. LATER TODAY THE USDA WILL RELEASE ITS CROP PROGRESS REPORT AS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND KEEP A MAJORITY OF THE NATION'S ROW CROPS ON PEAK PERFORMANCE. ...AND THAT'S OUR TOP STORY ON AGDAY.
POULTRYCONDITIONS:
POULTRY PRODUCTION IS UP 6 PERCENT FOR JULY.THAT'S ALSO ACCORDING TO NEW USDA NUMBERS.

U.S. PRODUCERS GREW MORE THAN 3 POINT 7 BILLION POUNDS. LIVE WEIGHTS OF CHICKENS AND TURKEYS ARE UP THANKS TO LOWER FEED PRICES. SO FAR THIS YEAR, PRODUCTION IS SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF 2013.

PORK PRICES:
PURDUE UNIVERSITY AG ECONOMIST CHRIS HURT SAYS HE THINKS RETAIL PORK PRICES TO CONTINUE INCREASING TO RECORD HIGHS THIS SUMMER. BUT THOSE INCREASES WILL LIKELY LEVEL OFF IN THE FALL AND THEN MOVE LOWER THIS WINTER AS PRODUCERS INCREASE PRODUCTION. PRODUCER PROFITS WERE AT A RECORD HIGHS.. NEAR 70-DOLLARS PER HEAD DURING THE SECOND QUARTER OF THIS YEAR -

HURT SAYS THIRD QUARTER PROFITS COULD BE EVEN HIGHER--UP TO 90-DOLLARS PER HEAD.

RABO PARK:
RABOBANK ALSO OUT WITH A NEW GLOBAL PORK REPORT. IT SAYS THE WORLD MARKET HAS GOOD POTENTIAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE YEAR DUE MOSTLY TO SUPPLY PROBLEMS RELATED TO PEDV. IT ALSO SAYS FARMERS CAN EXPECT RECORD PROFITS. HOWEVER PROCESSORS MAY STRUGGLE DUE TO INCREASED COMPETITION FOR HOGS.
ANTIBOTIC RULING:
A FEDERAL APPEALS COURT HAS RULED THE F-D-A WILL NOT BE REQUIRED TO CONDUCT PUBLIC HEARINGS ON ANTIBIOTIC USE IN ANIMAL FEED. ACTIVIST GROUPS SUED THE FEDERAL AGENCY IN 2011. THEY ARGUE F-D-A SHOULD WITHDRAW APPROVAL OF USING PENICILLIN AND TETRA-CYCLINE IN LIVESTOCK FEED. THEY WERE PUSHING FOR PUBLIC HEARINGS WHICH F-D-A WOULD NOT DO BECAUSE THE AGENCY FEELS THE INDUSTRY IS USING THE MEDS "JUDICIOUSLY". THE U-S SECOND CIRCUIT COURT OF APPEALS OVER-TURNED RULINGS ON THIS MATTER IN TWO LOWER DISTRICT COURTS. THE ACTIVIST GROUPS SAY USE OF THE ANTIBIOTICS HAS LED TO HUMAN RESISTANCE.

TEASE:

RABOBANK ALSO OUT WITH A NEW GLOBAL PORK REPORT. IT SAYS THE WORLD MARKET HAS GOOD POTENTIAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE YEAR DUE MOSTLY TO SUPPLY PROBLEMS RELATED TO PEDV. IT ALSO SAYS FARMERS CAN EXPECT RECORD PROFITS. HOWEVER PROCESSORS MAY STRUGGLE DUE TO INCREASED COMPETITION FOR HOGS.
POTASH:
IN AGRIBUSINESS TODAY - THE WORLD'S LARGEST FERTILIZER PRODUCER HAS RAISED ITS EARNINGS FORECAST BASED ON THE LIKELIHOOD OF STRONG EXPORTS. POTASH CORPORATION OF SASKATCHEWAN SAID DEMAND FOR POTASH IN CHINA AND LATIN AMERICA WILL BE MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THE COMPANY IS EXPECTING PROFITS BE WILL A DOLLAR-70 TO A DOLLAR-90 A SHARE. THAT'S A 20-CENT INCREASE FROM AN EARLIER FORECAST.

NITROGEN US:

 A NEW REPORT FROM RABOBANK SAYS THE NITROGEN FERTILIZER MARKET IS APPROACHING SATURATION AS CAPACITY HAS BOOMED IN RECENT YEARS. NEW PLANTS ARE STILL COMING ONLINE...THANKS IN PART TO AN ABUNDANCE OF NATURAL GAS. THE REPORT SAYS THE U.S. COULD BECOME SELF SUFFICIENT IN UREA--BY AS EARLY AS 2017. RABOBANK DOESN'T EXPECT MORE SEGMENT EXPANSION IN THE NEAR TERM.
ANALYSIS INTRO:
CLINTON…CORN FUTURES CLOSED SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON FRIDAY, BUT IT'S STILL WELL BELOW FOUR DOLLARS.

WHEN YOU FACTOR IN BASIS, YOU SEE CASH PRICES AT SOME ELEVATORS THAT START WITH A "TWO". FARM DIRECTOR AL PELL TAKES A CLOSER LOOK IN ANALYSIS.

 
WX:
WELCOME BACK TO AGDAY MIKE LOOKS LIKE WE'RE IN STORE FOR ANOTHER COOL WEEK ACROSS ABOUT HALF THE COUNTRY HERE. DOES THAT LOOK FAMILIAR?  REALLY HOT OUT WEST…YEAH REALLY IS. AND IT LOOKS LIKE THAT TROUGH IS JUST GOING TO KIND OF SIT THERE FOR THE MOST PART. IT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN SOMEWHAT. BUT OVERALL THIS IS REALLY A CHILLY WEEK FOR THE CORN BELT. CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THAT AREA... YOU CAN SEE THE JET STREAM DIVING FROM NORTHERN CANADA ALL THE WAY INTO GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA THAT IS ALWAYS A PRETTY CHILLY SITUATION NO MATTER WHAT TIME OF YEAR IT IS. OF COURSE IT IS JULY AND AUGUST HERE SO. WE ARE LOOKING AT A SITUATION WHERE IT’S JUST GOING TO BE COOL, NOT COLD BY ANY STRETCH. BUT YOU CAN SEE THE CUTOFF JUST KIND OF SITS THERE SOUTHEAST OF HUDSON BAY AND THEN IT STARTS TO WEAKEN THEN ANOTHER LITTLE CUTOFF TRIES TO FORM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND IT JUST SITS THERE ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SO THAT WOULD BE A MODERATING AIR MASS THERE. IT WOULDN'T BE QUITE AS COOL MAYBE EVEN BACK UP CLOSE TO NORMAL BUT A SITUATION LIKE THIS CAN ALSO HAVE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH IT EACH AFTERNOON SO WE'LL HAVE TO WATCH THAT. BIG RIDGE OUT WEST OBVIOUSLY KEEPING THINGS DRY FOR THE MOST PART AND WARM…WE'RE GOING ABOVE NORMAL WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BUT EAST OF THERE BELOW NORMAL ALL THE WAY TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WE'LL KEEP MAINE AND FLORIDA NEAR NORMAL AND ALSO SOUTH AND WEST TEXAS NEAR NORMAL BUT OTHERWISE JUST ABOUT EVERYBODY IS GONG TO BE COLDER THAN NORMAL AS WE HEAD THROUGH THIS WEEK INTO THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE COUNTRY. AND WITH THAT COLD AIR MASS IT WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION GOES FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY UP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THE NORTHEAST ON UP THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS AND MOST OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ABOVE NORMAL THEN FROM THE FOUR CORNER DOWN THROUGH NORTHERN AND EASTERN TEXAS ALONG THE GULF COAST…NOW THERE WILL BE AFTERNOON VARIETY SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATER INTO THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. SO THAT COULD GIVE YOU SOME HOPE FOR SOME RAIN THERE. NOW LET’S GO INTO OUR 90 DAYS OUTLOOK FOR SPLITTING IT UP INTO MONTHS LIKE WE HAVE BEEN DOING RECENTLY. AUGUST TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FROM THE GREAT LAKES ALL THE WAY BACK INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ABOVE NORMAL FOR A LOT OF THE SOUTHERN STATES AS YOU CAN SEE THERE AS WELL AS THE FAR EASTERN SEABOARD. SEPTEMBER TEMPERATURES I SHIFT THE BELOW NORMAL BACK INTO THE DAKOTAS, KANSAS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE ROCKIES. ABOVE NORMAL FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHEAST…AND ABOVE NORMAL IN THE SOUTH WEST AND THEN OCTOBER COMES RIGHT BACK WE'RE HEADING INTO COLDER THAN NORMAL LOOKS LIKE LATER FALL. SO BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE CORN BELT ABOVE NORMAL FAR SOUTHEAST AND FAR SOUTHWEST... PRECIPITATION 90 DAYS FROM THE MISSOURI VALLEY THROUGH THE WEST, ABOVE NORMAL GULF COAST AND FARM NORTHWEST BELOW NORMAL... THAT'S A LOOK ACROSS THE COUNTRY. NOW LETS TAKE A LOOK AT SOME LOCAL FORECASTS. FIRST OF ALL FOR NEEDLES CALIFORNIA, PARTLY SUNNY HOT AND HUMID HIGH OF 110... TAKING A LOOK AT CARRINGTON NORTH DAKOTA, SUNNY COMFORTABLE HIGH OF 78 AND FLORIDA PARTLY SUNNY AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN SOME AREAS HIGH OF 89...
MACHINERY PETE:
THANKS, GREG. YOU CAN STAY UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST DEALS BY FOLLOWING PETE ON TWITTER OR LIKING HIM ON FACEBOOK. IN ADDITION TO HIS WEEKLY SEGMENT ON AGDAY, HE'S ALSO FEATURED EVERY WEEK ON AGRITALK AND AGWEB DOT COM.
BB STRATEGO:
AGDAY-BROUGHT TO YOU BY STRATEGO YIELD FUNGICIDE FROM BAYER... PUT'ER THERE EARLY SEASON FOR AN AVERAGE SIX POINT EIGHT BUSHELS AN ACRE BUMP IN CORN YIELD.
CLOSE:
CLINTON…THAT'S ALL THE TIME WE HAVE THIS MORNING. WE'RE GLAD YOU TUNED IN. FOR MIKE HOFFMAN, AND AL PELL. I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. HAVE A GREAT DAY.

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