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AgDay Daily Recap -July 3, 2014

July 3, 2014
 
 

 

 

TODAY ON AGDAY
JULY 3, 2014
 
OPEN HEADLINES:
 COMING UP TODAY ON AGDAY

THE TOTALS ARE IN...OR AT LEAST ENOUGH TO SHOW JUNE WAS ONE OF THE WETTEST MONTHS ON RECORD FOR GROWERS IN THE CORN BELT. MANY FIELDS HOLD STANDING WATER. IN AGRIBUSINESS...GRAINS PRICES ARE DOWN SO WHY ARNE'T INPUTS. THE PROFARMER PROFIT BRIEFING…AND SEE HOW A MISSOURI WOMAN IS USING THE LIFE AND STORIES OF MARK TWAINE TO ENTICE TOURISM TO THE SHOW ME STATE…AGDAY BROUGHT TO YOU BY CHEVY SILVERADO-THE 2014 NORTH AMERICAN TRUCK OF THE YEAR.

WET JUNE:
GOOD MORNING I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. AS WE CLOSE THE BOOKS ON THE MONTH OF JUNE   IT'LL BE REMEMBERED AS A RECORD BREAKER WHEN IT COMES RAINFALL. AND THAT'S OUR TOP STORY ON AGDAY.
IOWA FLOODING:
THE IOWA STATE CLIMATOLOGIST SAYS MOST OF THE RAINFALL CAME IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE MONTH. THAT'S CERTAINLY TRUE IN EASTERN IOWA WHICH IS BATTLING FLOOD WATERS RIGHT NOW. THIS IS THE IOWA RIVER NEAR THE TOWN OF RIVERSIDE. WHILE THE HIGH WATER HAS NOT IMPACTED THIS HIGHWAY, IT'S CERTAINLY SPILLING OVER INTO AREA FIELDS. RIVERSIDE IS JUST SOUTH OF IOWA CITY…THAT AREA GOT HIT WITH A FIVE INCH RAINFALL EARLIER THIS WEEK. IT'S THE SECOND STRAIGHT WEEK FOR HEAVY RAIN TO HIT THAT PART OF THE CORNBELT. LONG GONE IS THE LINGERING AFFECTS OF DROUGHT. WHEN PLANTING SEASON BEGAN, HALF THE STATE WAS STILL IN MODERATE DROUGHT.
MCCARTHY TRAVEL:
 EPA ADMINISTRATOR GINA MCCARTHY SHOULD GET A GOOD LOOK AT WET FIELDS NEXT WEEK. ACCORDING TO THE HAGSTROM REPORT, MCCARTHY IS PLANNING A TRIP TO THE MIDWEST NEXT WEEK IN AN EFFORT TO CLARIFY ITS PROPOSED CHANGES TO THE WATERS OF THE U.S. RULE. MCCARTHY IS REPORTED TO BE PLANNING LISTENING SESSIONS WITH FARMERS AND RANCHERS...AS PART OF AN OUTREACH TO COUNTER CRITICISM OF THE RULE AND CALLS THAT IT’S AGENCY OVERREACH.
PLANTED ACREAGE:
THE USDA'S FARM SERVICE AGENCY IS REMINDING AG PRODUCERS THAT THE DEADLINE TO FILE ACREAGE REPORTS IS JULY 15TH. THAT REPORT INCLUDES SPRING SEEDED CROPS AND PLANTED ACRES.THE 2014 FARM BILL REQUIRES AN ANNUAL REPORT ON ALL CROPLAND.
CASH CATTLE:
IN OUR BEEF TODAY REPORT....CATTLE MARKETS CONTINUE THEIR HOT STREAK THIS WEEK.

NEW REPORTS OUT OF KANSAS SHOW CASH CATTLE SALES UP ANOTHER COUPLE OF DOLLARS TO 157 PER HUNDRED. STRONG CASH MARKETS ARE HELPING SUPPORT RECORD HIGH FEEDER CATTLE FUTURES AT THE CME.

RABOBANK 2Q OUTLOOK:
IN OUR BEEF TODAY REPORT - BEEF PRICES DON'T APPEAR TO BE SUBSIDING ANY TIME SOON. RABOBANK SAYS IN ITS QUARTERLY BEEF FORECAST THAT THE GLOBAL BEEF MARKET IS EXPERIENCING A RELATIVELY BALANCED SUPPLY/DEMAND PICTURE. THE GLOBAL BANK SEES STRONG PRICE LEVEL FORECASTS DRIVEN BY CONTINUED LIMITED SUPPLY AND STRONG GLOBAL DEMAND. AND WITH A LIMITED FEEDER CATTLE SUPPLY, RABOBANK SEES LIMITED PRODUCTION EXPANSION.
TEXAS CHECKOFF:
ONE OF THE BIGGEST CATTLE STATES IN THE NATION PLANS TO ESTABLISH ITS OWN STATE CHECKOFF PROGRAM…TEXANS APPROVING THE PROMOTIONAL AND MARKETING PROGRAM IN VOTE TAKEN EARLY JUNE. THE FINAL COUNT JUST REVEALED. TWO THIRDS OF VOTES IN FAVOR OF THE CHECKOFF…MUCH LIKE THE NATIONAL PROGRAM THE TEXAS BEEF CHECKOFF WILL ASSES A NO MORE THAN 1 DOLLAR PER HEAD PREMIUM TO EVERY ANIMAL SOLD. THE COLLECTIONS BEGIN OCTOBER FIRST.
CORN STOCKS:
ON THE FEED SIDE OF MARGINS, USDA'S LATEST GRAIN STOCKS REPORT SHOWS CORN IN ALL POSITIONS IS NEARLY 40 PERCENT HIGHER THAN LAST YEAR AT THIS TIME. THE REPORT SAYS THERE'S 3 POINT 85 BILLION BUSHELS WAITING TO BE USED. THE FIRST TWO QUARTERS OF THE YEAR SHOW FEED USE UP 22 PERCENT.
LIVESTOCK MARKETS:
TAKING A LOOK AT LIVESTOCK MARGINS, NEW NUMBERS SHOW FEEDLOT MARGINS CONTINUE TO CLIMB DESPITE HIGHER CATTLE COSTS. THIS IS FROM THE STERLING PROFIT TRACKER. MARGINS NOW AT 280 DOLLARS PER HEAD--THAT’S MORE THAN A 400 DOLLAR SWING SINCE LAST YEAR WHEN MARGINS WERE NEGATIVE. MEANWHILE, FARROW TO FINISH MARGINS ARE UP ABOUT TEN DOLLARS IN JUST A WEEKS' TIME...NOW CASHING IN AT 101 DOLLARS PER HEAD. THAT'S ACCORDING TO THE STERLING PORK PROFIT TRACKER. LAST YEAR AT THIS TIME IT WAS CLOSER TO 21 DOLLARS.
PORK PRICES:
 SPEAKING OF PORK PRICES, ACCORDING TO PURDUE ECONOMIST CHRIS HURT...HE EXPECTS RETAIL PORK PRICES TO KEEP RISING RIGHT ON TO RECORD HIGHS. HE SAYS THE REASON IS FEWER HOGS GOING TO MARKET BECAUSE OF PEDV CASES THIS SPRING. THOSE PRICE INCREASES, ACCORDING TO HURT SHOULD LEVEL OFF BY FALL...AND START DROPPIING BY WINTER.
BAYER EXPANDS:
IN BUSINESS NEWS, BAYER CROPSCIENCE ANNOUNCING PLANS TO SPEND NEARLY 30 MILLION DOLLARS ON EXPANSION AT ITS LOCATION IN NORTH CAROLINA. THE PLAN INCLUDES NEW GREENHOUSES FOR INSECT TESTING AND PLANT DISEASE RESEARCH.
TYSON HILLSHIRE:
THE BATTLE FOR HILLSHIRE FARMS NOW HAS A CLEAR WINNER. TYSON FOODS OFFICIALLY COMING OUT ON TOP...THE COMPANIES SIGNING AN AGREEMENT FOR TYSON TO BUY HILLSHIRE FOR 63 DOLLARS PER SHARE OR NEARLY 8 BILLION DOLLARS..--THAT DOESN'T INCLUDE HILLSHIRES REMAINING DEBT. THAT'S A 22 PERCENT PREMIUM OVER ITS CURRENT STOCK PRICE. A BIDDING WAR BROKE OUT IN LATE MAY BETWEEN PILGRIM'S PRIDE AND TYSON--WITH TYSON WINNING OUT.
ANALYSIS INTRO:
WHILE GRAIN PRICES SLUMP ON STRONG GROWING CONDITIONS, INPUTS SEEM TO BE HOLDING STEADY IF NOT TRENDING HIGHER. IN TODAY'S PROFARMER PROFIT BRIEFING, JULIANNE JOHNSTON AND DAVIS MICHEALSON JOIN US FROM OUR STUDIOS IN CEDAR FALLS IOWA TO TALK ABOUT WHY.
PROFIT BRIEFING-SOT:
WELL DAVIS WE HAD A VERY BEARISH TO USDAS REPORTS THIS WEEK MOSTLY BECAUSE THAT SOYBEAN PLANTED ACREAGE ESTIMATE CAME IN WELL ABOVE TRADERS EXPECTATIONS WE HOPE THAT FARMERS TOOK SOME OF OUR ADVICE IN OUR NEWSLETTER BY INCREASING THEIR COVERAGE ON THOSE ACRES THAT THEY ADDED DURING THE SPRING COMPARED INTENTIONS BUT AS WE HEAD INTO THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND ITS VERY IMPORTANT BECAUSE WE HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR THESE CROPS WE SHOULD GET THOUGH POLLINATION WITHOUT ANY TROUBLES UNLESS WE GET A DRASTIC CHANGE IN THE WEATHER AND WHAT HAPPENS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY IS VERY IMPORTANT BECAUSE AFTER THE 4TH OF JULY PRICE TRENDS EITHER ACCELERATE OR REVERSE BEARS CLEARLY HAVE CONTROL OF THE MARKETS RIGHT NOW AND THAT GIVES THEM A LITTLE MORE HEADWAY UNLESS WE GET SOME SHORT COVERING WHATS THAT MEAN FOR THE INPUTS MARKET AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE REST OF THE SUMMER. WELL GENERALLY BEARISH CORN FUTURES MEAN BEARISH FERTILIZER PRICES WE'VE PROVEN THAT OVER THE LAST FEW YEARS AND IN KEEPING TRACK OF OUR DATA HOWEVER THIS YEAR A LITTLE BIT OF BULLISHNESS IN CORN PRICES LATE IN THE WINTER TIME ACTUALLY GAVE FARMERS A LITTLE BIT OF EXTRA INCENTIVE TO GO OUT AND APPLY A LITTLE BIT OF MORE P AND K AND A LITTLE BIT EXTRA NITROGEN POSSIBLY BECAUSE CORN PRICES WERE JUST A LITTLE BIT HIGHER WHEN THEY WERE MAKING THOSE BUDGETING DECISIONS NOW THE PRICES HAVE FALLEN OFF RATHER THAN FERTILIZER PRICES FOLLOWING CORN DOWNWARD SINCE ALL THAT EXTRA DEMAND CAME INTO THE MARKET UNEXPECTEDLY WERE FACED WITH VERY TIGHT FERTILIZER SUPPLIES ACROSS THE US RIGHT NOW AND UNTIL SUPPLIES CAN BE REBUILT AT LOCAL SUPPLIERS AT YOUR LOCAL DEALER PRICES ARE GOING TO REMAIN JUST A LITTLE BIT OUT OF WACK WITH FERTILIZER PRICED PREMIUM TO WHERE I THINK IT SHOULD BE RIGHT NOW. SO RIGHT NOW YOUR SEEING THE PRICE OF CORN THE PRICE OF FERTILIZER LITTLE DIFFERENT THAN YOU NORMALLY WOULD EXPECT IT BUT THAT CAN CHANGE BY HARVEST TIME. THAT'S EXACTLY RIGHT AND I FULLY EXPECT IT TO WE'VE BEEN EYEING THIS SUMMER AS GIVING FERTILIZER A CHANCE TO KIND OF BREATHE A LITTLE AND RETURN TO EXPECTED MARGINS WE'VE GOT INCREASE DOMESTIC PRODUCTION AND WE'VE GOT STRONG DEMAND FOR FALL APPLICATIONS AND SO SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THAT MIX WE DO EXPECT LOWER FERTILIZER PRICES FROM TODAYS PRICE BY HARVEST TIME. AND WE WANT TO ALSO REMIND PRODUCER THAT WITH LOWER PRICES WE REBUILD DEMAND ITS GOOD FOR OUR LIVESTOCK INDUSTRY WE BOTH HAVE OPPORTUNITIES IN THE CATTLE AND THE HOG MARKETS FOR EXPANSION AND FOR EXPORT MARKETS AS WELL SO WERE GOING TO KEEP AN EYE ON THESE THINGS AS WE HEAD INTO THE SUMMER FROM ALL THE EDITORS OF PROFARMER WE HOPE YOU HAVE A SAFE HOLIDAY WEEKEND THIS IS JULIANNE JOHNSTON WITH DAVIS MICHAELSON..
WX:
WELCOME BACK TO AGDAY. MIKE AS WE HEARD EARLIER IN THE SHOW, JUNE A PRETTY WET MONTH FOR MANY PLACES ACROSS THE COUNTRY…MORE OF THAT THIS MONTH OR DO WE KNOW YET NO NOT SO FAR AND PROBABLY NOT A REPEAT OF THAT. I MEAN IT WOULD BE TOUGH TO REPEAT IN SOME PLACES. BUT HIGH PRESSURE AT LEAST STARTING OFF SINCE THE FIRST OF THE MONTH WE'RE FINALLY DRYING OUT ACROSS MOST OF THE CORN BELT. THERE ARE A FEW LINGERING SPRINKLES AND LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS THE GREAT LAKES. NONE OF THAT IS HEAVY. THE AREAS THAT COULD GET HEAVY RAIN HAVN'T SEEN A WHOLE LOT IN FACT IN TEXAS NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THOSE AREAS DESPARTELY NEED MORE RAIN SO THEY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THAT. ARTHUR CONTINUES TO MOVE ON UP SHORE. ITS GOING TO BE EITHER A TROPICAL STORM OR MINIMAL HURRICANE AS IT MOVES ALONG THE OUTERBANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA. DURING THE NIGHT TIME HOURS TONIGHT AND AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE FIRST PART OF THE FOURTH OF JULY…AGAIN HIGH PRESSURE JUST FINALLY...WE HAVEN'T SEEN A HIGH LIKE THIS IN SEVERAL WEEKS IT SEEMS TO ME. THAT'S GOING TO LAST A WHILE. EXCUSE ME. AND THAT'S ACTUALLY GOING TO BRING SOME VERY NICE WEATHER. FINALLY SOME DRY WEATHER FOR A LOT OF YOU FOLKS TO START TRYING TO DRY OUT A LITTLE BIT…AND ARTHUR WILL KIND OF MOVE ON UP TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. ONCE IT GETS PHASED IN WITH THIS FRONT IT WILL LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND JUST BECOME A STORM SYSTEM THAT MOVES MAINLY OFF SHORE. SO REALLY BESIDES THE OUTER BANKS OF THE CAROLINAS AND PART OF THE MIDATLANIC COASTLINE IT REALLY DOES DRY OUT BECAUSE THIS FRONT TAKES IT ALL OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC. SO YOU END UP WITH SOME RAIN UP IN NEW ENGLAND FROM THE STORM SYSTEM AS IT MOVE AWAY BUT THAT'S ABOUT IT. NOW THAT'S LATE IN THE DAY TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE SITTING RIGHT OVER ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEXT COLD FRONT DOES HAVE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IT…NONE OF IT REALLY HEAVY AT THIS POINT. AND WE'RE STILL LOOKING AT THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO GIVING MORE AFTERNOON RAIN…WHICH IS GOOD. PAST 24 HOURS WE'VE SEEN SOME IN PARTS OF TEXAS NEW MEXICO EVEN INTO THE GULF COAST AREA. AND UP AND DOWN THE EAST COAST. ADDING ON THE NEXT 36 HOURS THOSE ARE THE GENERAL AREAS THAT SEE IT AGAIN. FLORIDA WILL HAVE SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS BUT YOU CAN SEE ALL OF THE MOISTURE ALONG THE NORTHER TIER OF STATES REALLY NOT THAT HEAVY…HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY. STILL COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR… MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST HOT AND HUMID ALONG THE G ULF COAST BUT EVEN YOU FOLKS ARE GOING TO SEE A LITTLE BIT OF RELIEF AS THIS COOLER AIR SPREADS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND YOU CAN SEE LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. EVEN THEN THE NORTHERN DIXIE IN THE MID-60'S WHICH IS NICE. AND THEN YOU'RE TALKING THE LOW 80'S TOMORROW EVEN UPPER 80S IN NEW ORLEANS…THE GULF COAST STILL PLEASANT THROUGH MUCH OF THE CORN BELT. THERE'S THE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT IN THE COOL AIR. AND THE TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE AGAIN ARTHUR WILL BEGIN TO PHASE IN WITH THAT TROUGH. THAT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. STILL KIND OF A TROUGH SITUATION THERE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE GREAT LAKES SO...AS WE HEAD THROUGH NEXT WEEK…SO ITS KIND OF DEBATABLE HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM UP WILL GET AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK. THAT'S A LOOK ACROSS THE COUNTRY NOW LETS TAKE A LOOK AT SOME LOCAL FORECASTS…FIRST OF ALL FOR HOLLBROOK ARIZONA, HAZY SUNSHINE AND HOT…AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE HIGH OF 94. JAMESTOWN NORTH DAKOTA MOSTLY SUNNY PLEASANTLY WARM…HIGH UP TO 76. AND TAMPA FLORIDA A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS, MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM…HIGH OF 91.
ITC MARK TWAIN CAVE:
IT'S SUMMERTIME AND MILLIONS OF FAMILIES ACROSS THE COUNTRY TRAVEL THE OPEN ROAD IN SEARCH OF AMERICA. MANY SMALL BUSINESSES DEPEND ON TOURISM DOLLARS

FOR SURVIVAL. IN THIS REPORT PROVIDED BY THE UNIVERSITY OF MISSOURI, KENT FADDIS TAKES US TO AN ALL AMERICAN TOWN - WHICH SERVED AS INSPIRATION TO MARK TWAIN - TO SEE THE ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF TOURISM.

TEASE AMC SPECIAL:
IF YOU LIKE STORIES ABOUT RURAL AMERICA--ESPICIALLY THE UNIQUE PEOPLE AND PLACES YOU CAN FIND THERE-- BE SURE TO JOIN US THIS FRIDAY--THE FOURTH OF JULY FOR AN AGDAY SPECIAL.
ITC TAG:
UP NEXT, DESPITE DRY WEATHER THE NATION'S ALMOND GROWERS ARE EXPECTING A BUMPER CROP....FOOD AND YOUR FAMILY WHEN WE RETURN.
CLOSE:
UP NEXT, DESPITE DRY WEATHER THE NATION'S ALMOND GROWERS ARE EXPECTING A BUMPER CROP...FOOD AND YOUR FAMILY WHEN WE RETURN.
RFD PROMO:
CLINTON…THURSDAY ON AGDAY, JUNE SET RECORDS FOR RAINFALL TOTALS...WE'VE GOT NUMBERS FROM ACROSS THE COUNTRY. PLUS, CASH CATTLE TRADE IN RECORD TERRIOTRY AND THE GLOBAL OUTLOOK FOR BEEF IS STRONG.ALL THAT MORE, THURSDAY FOR AGDAY.
STATION PROMO:
FRIDAY ON AGDAY, IT'S A FOURTH OF JULY SPECIALS. JOIN US AS WE TRAVEL THE AMERICAN COUNTRYSIDE, MEETING PEOPLE AND SEEING PLACES UNIQUE TO OUR GREAT NATION.

FROM GETTYSBURG TO ARIZONA…AND PLACES IN BETWEEN…THE AMERICAN COUNTRYSIDE ON AGDAY THIS FRIDAY.

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