AgDay Daily Recap -May 7, 2014

May 7, 2014 02:57 AM
 

TODAY ON AGDAY

MAY 7, 2014

 

RABOBANK PORK:

GOOD MORNING I'M TYNE MORGAN IN FOR CLINTON GRIFFITHS. THE DEADLY PORCINE EPIDIMIC DIAHREA VIRUS PLAGUING the NATION'S SWINE HERD CONTINUES TO BE A CONCERN FOR THE GLOBAL PORK MARKETS. BUT SHOULD IT?

PEDV:

IF WE TAKE THE USDA INVENTORY NUMBERS, WHICH COME FROM WHAT PRODUCERS SAID THEY HAD AS FAR AS BABY PIGS, IT COMES OUT WE'RE ALREADY IN EXPANSION MODE IN THE HOG INDUSTRY . FARROWING WAS UP 3 PERCENT IN WINTER. WE LOST 7 SEVEN PERCENT OF THE BABY PIGS. BUT THAT LEFT US WITH FOUR PERCENT TO COME TO MARKET IN LATE SPRING AND SUMMER. PLUS WE'LL GAIN FOUR PERCENT IN WEIGHT. SO WE'LL ONLY BE DOWN TWO PERCENT ACCORDING TO USDA INVENSTORY ON PORK SUPPLIES THIS SPRING AND SUMMER.) MAY LEAN HOGS CLOSED AROUND 115-DOLLARS THURSDAY, DOWN FROM THE 130 RANGE WE SAW LAST MONTH. WHILE DOWN, PROFESSOR HURT STILL SEES A PROFITABLE YEAR FOR U-S PORK PRODUCERS. RABOBANK SAYS THE ONE WILD CARD IS CHINA, AS IT'S A SITUATION OF TOO MUCH PORK THERE. THAT'S BECAUSE OF MANY PRODUCERS LIQUIDATING.

MEXICO U.S. BEEF:

AFTER A DECADE, MEXICO SAYS IT WILL SOON RESUME IMPORTS OF U-S BEEF FROM CATTLE OF ANY AGE. MEXICAN OFFICIALS ARE MAKING THE REGULATORY CHANGES NOW. THIS MEANS THE 30-MONTH CATTE AGE LIMIT WILL BE REMOVED. THOSE RESTRICTIONS GO ALL THE WAY BACK TO MARCH OF 2004 WHEN B-S-E WAS DISCOVERED IN THE U.S.

CROP EMERGENCE:

COOL AND WET TEMPERATURES HAVEN'T PLAYED IN THE FAVOR OF FARMERS IN THE NORTHERN CORN BELT. AS WE FIRST REPORTED YESTERDAY, SIX OF THE TOP CORN GROWING STATES HAVE NO CORN EMERGING YET.

I-80 ILLINOIS:

WE JUST MENTIONED 8 PERCENT OF ILLINOIS' CORN IS NOW SHOWING THROUGH. THAT'S COMPARED TO THE AVERAGE OF 21 PERCENT. I JUST TRAVELED ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS MONDAY, AND SAW NO CORN UP YET. AS TWO FARMERS TOLD ME, MOTHER NATURE HAS MADE THIS SPRING LESS THAN IDEAL, BUT THINGS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO CHANGE.

CROP WATCH:

FARMERS IN ILLINOIS AREN'T THE ONLY ONES PLANTING AWAY THIS WEEK. MIKE HOFFMAN HAS DETAILS IN CROPWATCH. GOOD MORNING, MIKE.

CLIMATE CHANGE:

IN THE DEBATE OVER CLIMATE CHANGE, THE WHITE HOUSE LAUNCHES A NEW 840 PAGE FEDERAL REPORT. THE NATIONAL CLIMATE ASSESSMENT IS UPDATED EVERY FIVE YEARS.

EL NINO:

IN AGRIBUSINESS TODAY, WHILE TALKS OF EL NINO HAVE BEEN AROUND FOR MONTHS, IT COULD BE HERE EARLIER THAN WE THOUGHT. THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLGOGY SAYS THE RECENT WARMUP IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN AND CLIMATE MODELS INDICATE EL NINO COULD ARRIVE AS EARLY AS JULY. AND NOW THE BUREAU HAS UPPED IT'S LIKELIHOOD OF EL NINO THIS YEAR TO A 70 PERCENT CHANCE.  WHILE AN EL NINO COULD MEAN GOOD THINGS FOR U-S CROP YIELDS, IT DOESN'T HAVE A POSITIVE IMPACT ON OTHER PARTS OF THE WORLD. AL PELL DISCUSSES ALL THE POSSIBLE OUTCOMES IN TODAY'S ANALYSIS. HERE AT THE AGRIBUSINESS DESK HERE AT AGDAY WERE TALKING TO BRIAN DOHERTY OF STEWART PETERSON BRIAN LET'S TALK A LITTLE BIT I'M GONNA CALL IT THE WEATHER BUT EL NINO EVERYBODY KEEPS USING THAT WORD AND WHAT THAT MEANS, WHAT IS THAT REALLY GOING TO MEAN TO US HERE IN THE UNITED STATES AGRICULTURALLY? WHAT DOES IT MEAN, IT USUALLY MEANS FOR THE US THAT WE HAVE ADEQUATE MOISTURE GOOD WEATHER GOOD CROPS. TOO MUCH MOISTURE COULD BE IN PARTS OF THE SOUTH SHOULD GIVE REPRIEVE FROM THE DROUGHT BUT WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE WORLD AND WE'RE REALLY IN WORLD CROPS SO WE NEED TO WATCH THAT ESPECIALLY IN THE WHEAT MARKET AUSTRALIA'S A BIG EXPORTER OF WHEAT AS IS ARGENTINA THEY TYPICALLY HAVE DRY PATTERNS BUT THERE'S OTHER COMMODITIES THAT ARE AFFECTED BY EL NIÑO PATTERNS AS WELL AS AN EXAMPLE METALS NICKEL IS AFFECTED WHY IN INDONESIA AND IF THEY'RE DRY THEY USE WATER TO MINE IT FOR LACK OF WATER SO IT AFFECTS METALS NICKEL COPPER. IN CHILI TOO MUCH RAIN CAN GET COPPER OUT OF THE MINES SO IT HAS BIG EFFECT THE POINT OF IT IS THE MONEY THAT INVEST IN COMMODITIES USUALLY INVESTS IN EL NIÑO YEARS LOOKING FOR RISING FOOD AND ENERGY METAL PRICE IT SO IF WE SEE MORE VOLATILITY IN YOUR HEAD DUE TO EL NIÑO COULD MEAN GOOD PRICE OPPORTUNITIES FOR FARMERS HERE IN AMERICA BUT ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD'S PROBLEMS IN VOLATILE MARKETS AND SO CONSEQUENTLY FARMERS NEED TO LOOK TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE VOLATILITY WHEN IT PROVIDES OPPORTUNITIES TO SELL ON RALLIES. THE PROBLEM WITH IT, WITH SOMETHING LIKE THE WEATHER WAS YOU CAN'T PREDICT IT AND EVEN THOUGH A GOOD WEATHERMAN THEY FIGURE THEY'RE 50% RIGHT OR GOOD 50% RIGHT 50% OF THE TIME YET THAT'S RIGHT STILL NONETHELESS IT BEARS WATCHING ALL THESE WORLD EVENTS ESPECIALLY LIKE I SAID IN WHEAT, THE OTHER MARKET COULD BE CATTLE TIGHT WORLD INVENTORIES OF BEEF AUSTRALIA BIG BEEF PRODUCER THEY GO DRY THIS SUPPLY SITUATIONS REMAIN TIGHT WORLDWIDE SO WATCH THE WEATHER? WATCH THE WEATHER. EL NINO, WE'LL BE BACK WITH MORE AGDAY IN JUST A MOMENT.

MEALS OF HOPE:

PACKING TEN-THOUSAND MEALS IN TWO HOURS SOUNDS LIKE A DAUNTING TASK. BUT STUDENTS IN THE DIETETIC AND NUTRITION ASSOCIATION AT THE UNIVERSITY OF KENTUCKY TOOK ON THAT CHALLENGE.  VOLUNTEERS FORMED AN ASSEMBLY LINE TO PACK 'MEALS OF HOPE' FOR A FOOD PANTRY WHICH SERVES THE HUNGRY IN KENTUCKY.  IN THIS REPORT FROM THE U-K COLLEGE OF AGRICULTURE, JEFF FRANKLIN TELLS US HOW THIS MISSION CAME TOGETHER.

CHINESE DAIRY IMPORTS:

IN FOOD AND YOUR FAMILY, A BIG BUYER OF U-S MILK PRODUCTS WARNS OF NEW LIMITS ON FOREIGN BRANDS OF MILK POWDER AND INFANT FORMULA SOLD IN CHINA.

BAYER BUY:

AND A RECENT BUY IS MAKING THE PHARMACUETICAL REALM A LITTLE SMALLER.

 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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