AgKnowlegement: IGC Trims 2014-15 Total Grain Carryover Outlook

April 25, 2014 03:57 AM
 

Juli   AgKnows

 

The International Grain Council trimmed its outlook for 2014-15 global total grains (wheat and coarse grains) carryover by 12 MMT from last month to 390 MMT, which is equal to the current marketing year's peg. IGC lowered 2014-15 global wheat carryover by 3 MMT from last month to 187 MMT, which is 3 MMT lower than the current marketing year. It also trimmed global corn carryover by 8 MMT from last month to 163 MMT, which is up 5 MMT from the current marketing year. IGC left its 2014-15 global soybean carryover peg unchanged at 27 MMT, which is up 1 MMT from 2013-14.

IGC trimmed its global 2014-15 corn production forecast by 11 MMT from last month to 950 MMT, which if realized, is down 15 MMT from 2013-14. It states corn planting delays in the U.S. as raising the likelihood of more acres switching to soybeans.

Regarding the 2014-15 global wheat crop, IGC says while "there are some persistent concerns over less-than-ideal crop conditions, especially for winter wheat in the U.S., overall availability and 2014-15 wheat crop prospects remain generally good."

AgKnowledgement: The corn market has bounced this week on concerns that corn planting delays in the Midwest will linger into May, but it's still too early to count on a switch in corn acres to soybeans at this time. I'm not surprised the market is responding to weather, especially given the lack of other significant fresh news this week. But it is surprising the IGC is using corn planting delays in the U.S. as reasoning behind an 11-MMT drop in global corn production after the crop rebounded from significant and "real" corn planting delays last year. It's just too early to plug planting delays into a balance sheet. It's at least a month too early.

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