The Australian Bureau of Meteorology says the rate of the decline of the La Nina event gained momentum over the last few weeks. However, current temperature anomalies are still consistent with a La Nina event. A gradual weakening of the event through autumn (March-May) would be consistent with previous La Nina events.
The agency says the majority of dynamical models it surveys suggest La Nina will undergo a gradual decline with all models predicting a warming of tropical Pacific temperatures through the austral autumn and winter months. "There is some variation between models as to the rate of the warming over the forecast period, but most models show a transition to neutral conditions sometime in the next few months," it says.
"While La Nina is clearly on the wane, waters around Australia remain warmer than normal, maintaining the potential for increased rainfall over the continent," it adds.