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Be Ready for a Planting Progress Shock

May 18, 2013
By: Sara Schafer, Farm Journal Media Business and Crops Editor
Flying Money

Jerry Gulke doesn’t think the grain market is prepared for how much planting was completed this week.

Even though the calendar reads May, you’d think it was mid-April by the way planters have been rolling across farm country.

This week, the planting window finally opened for many. According to this week’s Farm Journal Pulse, nearly 60% of the respondents’ corn acres were planted by May 15. Here’s an overview of the results:

Of the 1,678 respondents:

  • 0% planted: 12%
  • 1-25% planted: 17%
  • 26-50% planted: 17%
  • 21-75% planted: 14%
  • 76-99% planted: 13%
  • 100% planted: 26%

5 15 13 Pulse

As of May 12, USDA estimated 28% of the corn crop is planted. The five-year average for this time is 65% planted.

Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says the market realized we had this open window for planting.

"I think we will shock the world with how much we got done this week," he says. "A lot of our clients who thought last week it would take 10 days to get into the field are now almost done. It is miracle what a 20 mph wind and 90 degrees will do to soil moisture."

Gulke says several of his clients from several states said they posted a record day or week in terms of planting progress this year. "I think we could have planted 40% this past week in corn."

All eyes will be on Monday’s Crop Progress report. Gulke expects the percent for planted corn will be in the higher 60s. There’s an upside chance that we’ll post a 70% complete for progress, he says. "If we do, I don’t think the market is prepared for that."

Acreage Update

On Friday, Informa Economics updated its planted acreage estimates. Here’s an overview of the report:

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