Cattle on Feed Report: Bearish

May 17, 2013 09:22 AM
 

 

USDA's Cattle on Feed Report shows all three categories on the bearish side of the average pre-report guesses. The combination of much stronger Placements and slightly lighter-than-expected Marketings pushed the On Feed category 0.7 percentage points higher than the average pre-report guess.

COF Report

USDA

Average

Range

% of year-ago levels

On Feed

97%
96.3

95.0-98.0

Placements

115%

112.1

104.9-122.0

Marketings

102%

102.9

100.0-104.1

 

The 15% surge in cattle placements last month was likely tied to lower feed costs and poor pasture conditions in the Plains. Placements were higher than year-ago in virtually all of the key cattle production states of the Plains and Iowa, aside from South Dakota.

A weight breakdown of placements shows all categories up from year-ago, though the bulk of the increase was in 7-weights (up 19.7%) and heavyweights (up 21.3%). Lightweight placements were up 5.6% and 6-weight placements rose 8% from year-ago.

With all three categories coming in on the bearish side of the average pre-report guesses, this data is negative, especially for farther deferred futures as the Placements number was the most bearish. But given recent price pressure, some of this report is already likely "in" the market, which should help limit selling pressure Monday.


 

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