South American crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier has once again lowered his Brazilian soybean estimate by 1 million metric tons (MMT) to 68 MMT. High temps combined with a lack of meaningful precip in Rio Grande do Sul (RGDA) resulted in pod abortions and premature plant death in the region.
Meanwhile, Dr. Cordonnier left his Brazilian corn estimate unchanged at 58 MMT, which he says is 2 MMT to 3 MMT lower than most estimates due to his concern about the safrinha crop in southern Brazil. He also left his Argentine corn and soybean crop estimates unchanged, saying there is more downside risk for the recently planted corn crop, as it needs favorable weather moving forward. But he has a neutral bias toward the soybean crop, and says some of the lower estimates may start to move higher due to recent moisture improvements.
|
Dr. Cordonnier 2011-12 Soybean Estimates
|
Est.
|
Maximum
|
Minimum
|
2010-11
|
|
in million metric tons
|
| Brazil |
68.0
|
70.0
|
66.0
|
75.5
|
| Argentina |
47.0
|
49.0
|
45.0
|
49.0
|
| Paraguay |
5.0
|
6.0
|
4.0
|
8.3
|
| Bolivia |
1.7
|
2.0
|
1.4
|
1.6
|
| Uruguay |
1.7
|
2.0
|
1.4
|
1.5
|
| Total |
123.4
|
129.0
|
117.8
|
135.9
|
|
Dr. Cordonnier 2011-12
Corn Estimates
|
Est.
|
Maximum
|
Minimum
|
2010-11
|
|
in million metric tons
|
| Brazil |
58.0
|
62.0
|
55.0
|
57.5
|
| Argentina |
20.0
|
22.0
|
16.0
|
22.5
|
| Paraguay |
1.8
|
2.0
|
1.6
|
2.0
|
| Total |
79.8
|
86.0
|
72.6
|
82.0
|
See Comments
