The pre-report consensus calls for USDA to lower both its yield and production estimates for corn and soybeans.
Traders, analysts, and producers will all be watching USDA’s upcoming World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) released Sept. 12.
Commodities brokerage INTL FCStone is the most optimistic of the three major forecasting firms. INTL FCStone estimates USDA will drop its U.S. corn yield estimate to 121.4 bushels an acre and total production to 10.607 billion bushels. Last month, USDA forecast a U.S. average corn yield of 123.4 bushels an acre and production of 10.779 billion bushels.
Informa thinks USDA’s September WASDE report will drop the U.S. average corn yield to 119.8 bu. per acre and total corn production to 10.31 billion bushels. However, Informa also released "most likely final estimates," which were quite a bit higher. The forecasting firm expects the final tally for the 2012-13 crop to come in closer to 11.0 billion bushels with an average yield of 126.5 bushels per acre.
Allendale is the most pessimistic on USDA’s expected corn yield, estimating it at 118.2 bushels per acre, but its total production forecast lands between INTL FCStone’s and Informa’s at 10.326 billion bushels due to harvested acres.
Allendale also projects USDA will drop U.S corn ending stocks to 623 million bushels, below USDA’s previous estimate of 650 million bushels. The firm puts world corn ending stocks at 121 million metric tons, compared with USDA’s last estimate of 135 million metric tons.
Estimates for USDA’s September Supply Estimates
|| INTL FCStone
||USDA Aug. Est.
|U.S. corn yield (bu. per acre)
|Corn Production (billion bu.)
|U.S. soybean yield (bu. per acre)
|Soybean Production (billion bu.)
Soybean Estimates Could Improve
Looking at soybean estimates for the upcoming supply and demand report, once again, INTL FCStone is the most optimistic. The brokerage firm expects USDA to forecast the U.S. soybean crop at 2.739 billion bushels and the average U.S. soybean yield at 36.7 bushels an acre. USDA’s August forecast for soybeans called for total production of 2.692 billion bushels and an average U.S. yield of 36.1 bushels an acre.
See how AgWeb readers expect USDA to adjust its soybean yield estimate.
Informa is nearly as optimistic, putting the U.S. average soybean yield at 35.4 bushels per acre and the total production at 2.639 billion bushels. The firm also put out a "most likely final" production estimate for soybean production of 2.69 billion bushels.
Allendale puts new-crop soybean production 2.602 billion bushels, down 90 million bushels from USDA's August estimate. The firm expects USDA’s September yield estimate to drop to 34.9 bushels per acre.