Jul 30, 2014
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Corn Avalanche on Horizon as Rain Trumps Planting Drop

July 7, 2014
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The 8-foot corn stalks on Bill Long’s farm in southern Illinois are so big, green and healthy that he wishes he’d sold more of it sooner.

Like many growers across the Midwest, Long expects a second straight record crop that will boost domestic stockpiles already at a four-year high. Output in the U.S. will jump 2.8 percent to 14.314 billion bushels, the most ever, researcher The Linn Group Inc. estimated in a July 1 report. Even after fewer acres were planted, the wettest June on record left fields in the best condition since 2003 and sent prices into a bear market two months before the harvest starts.

Power Hour Noon Logo"There is a wall of grain coming at us," said Roy Huckabay, an executive vice president at Linn Group in Chicago, said in a telephone interview July 2.

Two years removed from a devastating drought that damaged crops and sent prices surging, farmers will see yields rise 4.1 percent to an all-time high of 165.3 bushels an acre, government data show. Rising grain output in the U.S., the world’s largest producer, is keeping global food prices in check while boosting profit for meat producers including Tyson Foods Inc. and makers of sweeteners and ethanol including Archer-Daniels-Midland Co.


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Futures have tumbled 20 percent since the end of April, slipping into a bear market on July 3 to $4.1525 on the Chicago Board of Trade, after touching $4.145, the lowest since Jan. 10. The Bloomberg Commodity Index of 22 raw materials dropped 2.6 percent over the same period, while the MSCI World Index of equities advanced 4.7 percent. The Bloomberg Treasury index gained 0.3 percent.

Price Outlook

Corn’s slump may worsen once the harvest starts. In separate reports, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said June 23 that prices will drop to $4 in six months, while Rabobank International said July 1 the grain will average $4.07 in the fourth quarter. Dan Basse, the president of AgResources Co. in Chicago, predicted a drop as low as $3.50.

As of June 29, 75 percent of the crop was in good or excellent condition, compared with 67 percent a year earlier and the highest at this stage of development since 2003, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said. After low temperatures delayed planting this year, the arrival of warm, wet weather accelerated plant development in June with about 5 percent already reproducing this week, up from 3 percent in 2013.

"Right now, it looks as good as it did last year when we had a record harvest," Long said by telephone from Franklin, Illinois, where he farms about 3,000 acres with his son. "We have moisture in the ground and mild temperatures for successful pollination. We are ahead of the game."

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8640855
As%25252520usual%25252520all%25252520the%25252520no%25252520mind%25252520traders%25252520and%2525252​0bragging%25252520farmers%25252520are%25252520hyping%25252520this%25252520whole%25252520thing%252525​20out%25252520of%25252520proportion%25252520again.%25252520yes%25252520corn%25252520will%25252520be%​25252520good%25252520but%25252520it%25252520is%25252520usually%25252520good%25252520in%25252520centr​al%25252520Ill%25252520and%25252520middle%25252520Iowa%25252520tell%25252520us%25252520something%252​52520we%25252520don't%25252520know!%25252520If%25252520we%25252520head%25252520to%25252520sub%252525​20$4;00%25252520it%25252520is%25252520going%25252520to%25252520be%25252520tough%25252520to%25252520m​ake%25252520those%25252520rent%25252520payments%25252520isn't%25252520it?%25252520In%25252520Wiscons​in,%25252520The%25252520arm%25252520pit%25252520of%25252520the%25252520world%25252520corn%25252520is​%25252520from%252525204%25252520inches%25252520to%25252520chest%25252520high%25252520with%25252520dr​own%25252520out%25252520spots%25252520and%25252520a%25252520very%25252520yellow%25252520color,%25252​520waste%25252520high%25252520that%25252520need%25252520additional%25252520N%25252520might%25252520n​ot%25252520get%25252520is%25252520because%25252520for%25252520the%25252520height%25252520and%2525252​0the%25252520soybeans%25252520are%25252520just%25252520stunted%25252520and%25252520not%25252520makin​g%25252520much%25252520progress%25252520need%25252520to%25252520be%25252520sprayed%25252520and%25252​520the%25252520field%25252520are%25252520muddy%25252520because%25252520it%25252520rains%25252520ever​y%2525252036%25252520hours%25252520%25252520a%25252520little%25252520hard%25252520to%25252520make%25​252520guesses%25252520when%25252520uniformity%25252520is%25252520%25252520what%25252520it%25252520is​.%25252520To%25252520the%25252520traders%25252520at%25252520the%25252520board%25252520of%25252520tra​de%25252520you%25252520believe%25252520there%25252520can't%25252520be%25252520to%25252520much%252525​20rain%25252520it%25252520just%25252520makes%25252520more%25252520grain%25252520your%25252520ignoran​ce%25252520proceeds%25252520you.%25252520the%25252520fact%25252520that%25252520water%25252520logged%​25252520fields%25252520definitely%25252520will%25252520not%25252520produce%25252520as%25252520much%2​5252520as%25252520drained%25252520non%25252520water%25252520logged%25252520field%25252520just%252525​20because%25252520you%25252520say%25252520and%25252520think%25252520it%25252520does%25252520not%2525​2520make%25252520it%25252520true.%25252520Nore%25252520rain%25252520does%25252520not%25252520make%25​252520more%25252520grain!%25252520Do%25252520any%25252520of%25252520you%25252520even%25252520know%25​252520what%25252520corn%25252520or%25252520soybeans%25252520look%25252520like?%25252520Not%25252520a​%25252520lot%25252520of%25252520that%25252520grown%25252520on%25252520LaSalle%25252520 %25252520Jackson%25252520Street%25252520on%25252520concrete.%25252520%25252520​
11:00 AM Jul 9th
 
8640855
As%25252520usual%25252520all%25252520the%25252520no%25252520mind%25252520traders%25252520and%2525252​0bragging%25252520farmers%25252520are%25252520hyping%25252520this%25252520whole%25252520thing%252525​20out%25252520of%25252520proportion%25252520again.%25252520yes%25252520corn%25252520will%25252520be%​25252520good%25252520but%25252520it%25252520is%25252520usually%25252520good%25252520in%25252520centr​al%25252520Ill%25252520and%25252520middle%25252520Iowa%25252520tell%25252520us%25252520something%252​52520we%25252520don't%25252520know!%25252520If%25252520we%25252520head%25252520to%25252520sub%252525​20$4;00%25252520it%25252520is%25252520going%25252520to%25252520be%25252520tough%25252520to%25252520m​ake%25252520those%25252520rent%25252520payments%25252520isn't%25252520it?%25252520In%25252520Wiscons​in,%25252520The%25252520arm%25252520pit%25252520of%25252520the%25252520world%25252520corn%25252520is​%25252520from%252525204%25252520inches%25252520to%25252520chest%25252520high%25252520with%25252520dr​own%25252520out%25252520spots%25252520and%25252520a%25252520very%25252520yellow%25252520color,%25252​520waste%25252520high%25252520that%25252520need%25252520additional%25252520N%25252520might%25252520n​ot%25252520get%25252520is%25252520because%25252520for%25252520the%25252520height%25252520and%2525252​0the%25252520soybeans%25252520are%25252520just%25252520stunted%25252520and%25252520not%25252520makin​g%25252520much%25252520progress%25252520need%25252520to%25252520be%25252520sprayed%25252520and%25252​520the%25252520field%25252520are%25252520muddy%25252520because%25252520it%25252520rains%25252520ever​y%2525252036%25252520hours%25252520%25252520a%25252520little%25252520hard%25252520to%25252520make%25​252520guesses%25252520when%25252520uniformity%25252520is%25252520%25252520what%25252520it%25252520is​.%25252520To%25252520the%25252520traders%25252520at%25252520the%25252520board%25252520of%25252520tra​de%25252520you%25252520believe%25252520there%25252520can't%25252520be%25252520to%25252520much%252525​20rain%25252520it%25252520just%25252520makes%25252520more%25252520grain%25252520your%25252520ignoran​ce%25252520proceeds%25252520you.%25252520the%25252520fact%25252520that%25252520water%25252520logged%​25252520fields%25252520definitely%25252520will%25252520not%25252520produce%25252520as%25252520much%2​5252520as%25252520drained%25252520non%25252520water%25252520logged%25252520field%25252520just%252525​20because%25252520you%25252520say%25252520and%25252520think%25252520it%25252520does%25252520not%2525​2520make%25252520it%25252520true.%25252520Nore%25252520rain%25252520does%25252520not%25252520make%25​252520more%25252520grain!%25252520Do%25252520any%25252520of%25252520you%25252520even%25252520know%25​252520what%25252520corn%25252520or%25252520soybeans%25252520look%25252520like?%25252520Not%25252520a​%25252520lot%25252520of%25252520that%25252520grown%25252520on%25252520LaSalle%25252520 %25252520Jackson%25252520Street%25252520on%25252520concrete.%25252520%25252520​
11:00 AM Jul 9th
 
8640855
As%252520usual%252520all%252520the%252520no%252520mind%252520traders%252520and%252520bragging%252520​farmers%252520are%252520hyping%252520this%252520whole%252520thing%252520out%252520of%252520proportio​n%252520again.%252520yes%252520corn%252520will%252520be%252520good%252520but%252520it%252520is%25252​0usually%252520good%252520in%252520central%252520Ill%252520and%252520middle%252520Iowa%252520tell%25​2520us%252520something%252520we%252520don't%252520know!%252520If%252520we%252520head%252520to%252520​sub%252520$4;00%252520it%252520is%252520going%252520to%252520be%252520tough%252520to%252520make%2525​20those%252520rent%252520payments%252520isn't%252520it?%252520In%252520Wisconsin,%252520The%252520ar​m%252520pit%252520of%252520the%252520world%252520corn%252520is%252520from%2525204%252520inches%25252​0to%252520chest%252520high%252520with%252520drown%252520out%252520spots%252520and%252520a%252520very​%252520yellow%252520color,%252520waste%252520high%252520that%252520need%252520additional%252520N%252​520might%252520not%252520get%252520is%252520because%252520for%252520the%252520height%252520and%25252​0the%252520soybeans%252520are%252520just%252520stunted%252520and%252520not%252520making%252520much%2​52520progress%252520need%252520to%252520be%252520sprayed%252520and%252520the%252520field%252520are%2​52520muddy%252520because%252520it%252520rains%252520every%25252036%252520hours%252520%252520a%252520​little%252520hard%252520to%252520make%252520guesses%252520when%252520uniformity%252520is%252520%2525​20what%252520it%252520is.%252520To%252520the%252520traders%252520at%252520the%252520board%252520of%2​52520trade%252520you%252520believe%252520there%252520can't%252520be%252520to%252520much%252520rain%2​52520it%252520just%252520makes%252520more%252520grain%252520your%252520ignorance%252520proceeds%2525​20you.%252520the%252520fact%252520that%252520water%252520logged%252520fields%252520definitely%252520​will%252520not%252520produce%252520as%252520much%252520as%252520drained%252520non%252520water%252520​logged%252520field%252520just%252520because%252520you%252520say%252520and%252520think%252520it%25252​0does%252520not%252520make%252520it%252520true.%252520Nore%252520rain%252520does%252520not%252520mak​e%252520more%252520grain!%252520Do%252520any%252520of%252520you%252520even%252520know%252520what%252​520corn%252520or%252520soybeans%252520look%252520like?%252520Not%252520a%252520lot%252520of%252520th​at%252520grown%252520on%252520LaSalle%252520 %252520Jackson%252520Street%252520on%252520concrete.%252520%252520​
11:00 AM Jul 9th
 
8640855
As%20usual%20all%20the%20no%20mind%20traders%20and%20bragging%20farmers%20are%20hyping%20this%20whol​e%20thing%20out%20of%20proportion%20again.%20yes%20corn%20will%20be%20good%20but%20it%20is%20usually​%20good%20in%20central%20Ill%20and%20middle%20Iowa%20tell%20us%20something%20we%20don't%20know!%20If​%20we%20head%20to%20sub%20$4;00%20it%20is%20going%20to%20be%20tough%20to%20make%20those%20rent%20pay​ments%20isn't%20it?%20In%20Wisconsin,%20The%20arm%20pit%20of%20the%20world%20corn%20is%20from%204%20​inches%20to%20chest%20high%20with%20drown%20out%20spots%20and%20a%20very%20yellow%20color,%20waste%2​0high%20that%20need%20additional%20N%20might%20not%20get%20is%20because%20for%20the%20height%20and%2​0the%20soybeans%20are%20just%20stunted%20and%20not%20making%20much%20progress%20need%20to%20be%20spr​ayed%20and%20the%20field%20are%20muddy%20because%20it%20rains%20every%2036%20hours%20%20a%20little%2​0hard%20to%20make%20guesses%20when%20uniformity%20is%20%20what%20it%20is.%20To%20the%20traders%20at%​20the%20board%20of%20trade%20you%20believe%20there%20can't%20be%20to%20much%20rain%20it%20just%20mak​es%20more%20grain%20your%20ignorance%20proceeds%20you.%20the%20fact%20that%20water%20logged%20fields​%20definitely%20will%20not%20produce%20as%20much%20as%20drained%20non%20water%20logged%20field%20jus​t%20because%20you%20say%20and%20think%20it%20does%20not%20make%20it%20true.%20Nore%20rain%20does%20n​ot%20make%20more%20grain!%20Do%20any%20of%20you%20even%20know%20what%20corn%20or%20soybeans%20look%2​0like?%20Not%20a%20lot%20of%20that%20grown%20on%20LaSalle%20 %20Jackson%20Street%20on%20concrete.%20%20​
11:00 AM Jul 9th
 
8640855
As%20usual%20all%20the%20no%20mind%20traders%20and%20bragging%20farmers%20are%20hyping%20this%20whol​e%20thing%20out%20of%20proportion%20again.%20yes%20corn%20will%20be%20good%20but%20it%20is%20usually​%20good%20in%20central%20Ill%20and%20middle%20Iowa%20tell%20us%20something%20we%20don't%20know!%20If​%20we%20head%20to%20sub%20$4;00%20it%20is%20going%20to%20be%20tough%20to%20make%20those%20rent%20pay​ments%20isn't%20it?%20In%20Wisconsin,%20The%20arm%20pit%20of%20the%20world%20corn%20is%20from%204%20​inches%20to%20chest%20high%20with%20drown%20out%20spots%20and%20a%20very%20yellow%20color,%20waste%2​0high%20that%20need%20additional%20N%20might%20not%20get%20is%20because%20for%20the%20height%20and%2​0the%20soybeans%20are%20just%20stunted%20and%20not%20making%20much%20progress%20need%20to%20be%20spr​ayed%20and%20the%20field%20are%20muddy%20because%20it%20rains%20every%2036%20hours%20%20a%20little%2​0hard%20to%20make%20guesses%20when%20uniformity%20is%20%20what%20it%20is.%20To%20the%20traders%20at%​20the%20board%20of%20trade%20you%20believe%20there%20can't%20be%20to%20much%20rain%20it%20just%20mak​es%20more%20grain%20your%20ignorance%20proceeds%20you.%20the%20fact%20that%20water%20logged%20fields​%20definitely%20will%20not%20produce%20as%20much%20as%20drained%20non%20water%20logged%20field%20jus​t%20because%20you%20say%20and%20think%20it%20does%20not%20make%20it%20true.%20Nore%20rain%20does%20n​ot%20make%20more%20grain!%20Do%20any%20of%20you%20even%20know%20what%20corn%20or%20soybeans%20look%2​0like?%20Not%20a%20lot%20of%20that%20grown%20on%20LaSalle%20 %20Jackson%20Street%20on%20concrete.%20%20​
11:00 AM Jul 9th
 
8640855
As usual all the no mind traders and bragging farmers are hyping this whole thing out of proportion again. yes corn will be good but it is usually good in central Ill and middle Iowa tell us something we don't know! If we head to sub $4;00 it is going to be tough to make those rent payments isn't it? In Wisconsin, The arm pit of the world corn is from 4 inches to chest high with drown out spots and a very yellow color, waste high that need additional N might not get is because for the height and the soybeans are just stunted and not making much progress need to be sprayed and the field are muddy because it rains every 36 hours a little hard to make guesses when uniformity is what it is. To the traders at the board of trade you believe there can't be to much rain it just makes more grain your ignorance proceeds you. the fact that water logged fields definitely will not produce as much as drained non water logged field just because you say and think it does not make it true. Nore rain does not make more grain! Do any of you even know what corn or soybeans look like? Not a lot of that grown on LaSalle Jackson Street on concrete.
11:00 AM Jul 9th
 
8640855
As usual all the no mind traders and bragging farmers are hyping this whole thing out of proportion again. yes corn will be good but it is usually good in central Ill and middle Iowa tell us something we don't know! If we head to sub $4;00 it is going to be tough to make those rent payments isn't it? In Wisconsin, The arm pit of the world corn is from 4 inches to chest high with drown out spots and a very yellow color, waste high that need additional N might not get is because for the height and the soybeans are just stunted and not making much progress need to be sprayed and the field are muddy because it rains every 36 hours a little hard to make guesses when uniformity is what it is. To the traders at the board of trade you believe there can't be to much rain it just makes more grain your ignorance proceeds you. the fact that water logged fields definitely will not produce as much as drained non water logged field just because you say and think it does not make it true. Nore rain does not make more grain! Do any of you even know what corn or soybeans look like? Not a lot of that grown on LaSalle Jackson Street on concrete.
11:00 AM Jul 9th
 
cornman - Scott City, KS
www.afairmarketprice.com
7:15 AM Jul 9th
 
CARROLL - JASPER, NY
Many farmers and agronomist around the country don't see a bumper crop !!!
8:38 PM Jul 8th
 
KEVIN - DAVENPORT, IA
There may be some good spots but we also saw a lot of water damage, wind, and hail on our trip from SD down I-29 and then from Omaha to Davenport IA on I-80 last week. Didn't see the "Avalanche" type crop till Des Moines and even then, just a good crop...I think there may be some surprises out there and the trade may have their head up some USDA reports...does anyone remember them being right??
6:24 PM Jul 8th
 



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