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Disappointing Yield Reports Fuel Markets

September 4, 2012
By: Sara Schafer, Farm Journal Media Business and Crops Editor
8 27 12 IN corn ears
A Knox County, Ind., farmer provided this photo to AgWeb’s Crop Comments. “It's catch-as-catch-can with corn. These two farms are 4 miles apart.”  

Market expert Jerry Gulke discusses this week’s market movement following a long weekend.

Early planting of the 2012 corn crop has morphed into early harvest for many farmers across the Midwest. As of Sept. 4, USDA estimates 10% of the corn crop has been harvested, which compares to a five-year average of 3%.

Yet, early harvest reports continue to be generally disappointing, says Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group. "We have found some areas that are seeing 200+ yields, but they are not the norm." He says while some areas in the Deep South had seeing record yields, others in the Midwest were thinking they would get 40 bu./acre yields, but they are coming in closer to 25.

Around 200 farmers have submitted yield reports to AgWeb’s Corn Harvest map. As of Monday, the average yield is 79.78 bu./acre. These reports account for 85,800 acres.

The highest report corn yield is 252 bu./acre, on 1,500 acres, in Washington County, Miss. The rest of the 200-plus yields are from other southern states, such as Georgia, Louisiana and Arkansas.

Bullish Outlook for Beans

For soybeans, Gulke says, the general philosophy is if we get some rain, they may be alright. "But, it’s getting pretty late. Producers all know that the weather at this point, for beans, can mean the difference between BB-size or a plumb bean."

The big news, from a technical standpoint, is July soybeans movement. Gulke says for Monday, July soybeans gapped higher, meaning they opened higher than Friday’s close.

"This is one of the most bullish outlooks for a bean chart I’ve seen."

Hear Gulke’s full analysis:


For More Information
What yields are you seeing? Submit your report to AgWeb Crop Comments.

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