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Don’t Bet on a Bean Price Bump

September 7, 2013
By: Sara Schafer, Farm Journal Media Business and Crops Editor
8 23 12 MI soybeans
  

The market will be hit with another round of USDA reports Sept. 12. Jerry Gulke provides his pre-report pricing advice.

On Thursday, Sept. 12, USDA will release its September Crop Producer and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says these reports could hold some market- shifting information.

The soybean market could hold the biggest surprise, Gulke predicts. "We are narrowing the time frame that we can either make or kill the crop," he says. "At this point, it will be what it is."

Hear Gulke's full audio analysis:

 

His advice is to watch what USDA does with the exports and other usage. Demand will be key, considering soybean supply is large. "If you look at what we’re going to grow in the U.S., even with a 41 bu./acre national average, and what South America has left over and what the U.S. has left over, we have 500 million bu. more soybeans going into Sept. 1, than we had last year."

What will this mean for prices?

"Do we really think that $13 beans will go to $16? I told my guys that I don’t want any beans on my farm at $14," he says. "My bean bins will be empty at $14."

Gulke says that with South America’s large soybean supply, they will stay competitive, with U.S. prices, through this fall.

"If I was going to sell anything, I’d sell the beans. Get rid of them," he says.

For corn, Gulke says farmers need to prepare for a large U.S. crop. "We’re going to grow a lot of corn this year, whether we get 150 bu./acre or 160 bu./acre or somewhere in between," he says.

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