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Full Coverage of the June 30 Reports

July 1, 2011
 
 

On Thursday, June 30 at 7:30 a.m., USDA will release its planted acreage report and quarterly stocks estimates. These reports will provide vital market information, as they will detail the actual amount of crop acres planted following the widespread planting delays earlier this year.

Analysis

Yesterday's June plantings report is one of the more important reports in recent years for a variety of factors.
 
With the release of USDA's June Grain Stocks and Acreage reports comes a fundamental shift in the corn market, suggesting that corn prices will come under considerable pressure, according to University of Illinois agricultural economist Darrel Good.
 
North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota and Montana, will be resurveyed.
 
The Bull has taken his money to the sideline, and the Bear is in charge! Listen to Bob Utterback of Utterback Marketing talk with Pam Fretwell in today's Midday Commentary about today’s USDA reports.
 
With the release of the acreage report today by the USDA, farmers around the country are concerned with the government agency's accuracy.
 
Between this morning’s Acreage and Grain Stocks reports, the U.S. corn supply for the 2011-12 corn year is close to 0.5 billion bushels higher than the industry anticipated.
 
While corn prices drop, feeder futures prices move higher potentially offsetting any benefit from lower corn prices.
 
Driven by the higher commodity prices, U.S. corn growers increased the planted acreage by 4.1 million acres from last year.
 
Look for big drops in July corn this morning as stock are higher than expected. Acreage higher, too, so it's not much brighter in new crop months either, says Tom Grisafi.
 
Corn, soybeans and wheat futures are all in for an ugly day, says Mike Howlett of Top Third Marketing, after today's surprising USDA report.
 
See what people are saying in the AgWeb Discussion Boards: June 30 Report.
 

Blog Commentary

By Joe Vaclavik & Doug Bergman

 

By Jeremy Knutson

 

By Kevin McNew
 
 

Pre-report Commentary

 
Get ready for a big move in corn prices. USDA's June Grain Stocks report comes out tomorrow morning, and it tends to swing the market. 
 
Wild Week for Corn

As the first delivery date looms, speculators jump out of the July market, sending futures prices spiraling down.

Attention Shifting from Acreage to Yields

The near completion of planting, except for double-cropped soybeans, and less threatening weather may reduce crop concerns for now, resulting in some modest price weakness. The June 30 USDA Acreage and Grain Stocks reports will provide additional price direction.
 
A large number of factors have contributed to the higher prices of corn and other commodities over the past year. The beginning of the price increase can be traced to the USDA's forecast of 2010 corn planted acreage and the estimate of June 1 corn stocks released on June 30, 2010, said University of Illinois agricultural economist Darrel Good.
 
After one of the slowest planting seasons on record, the U.S. corn crop is finally in the ground. The abnormal planting progress of the last few months has sent the corn market on a crazy roller coaster ride.
 
Corn futures dropped significantly as contract highs were reached last week and demand fears took over, says Jerry Gulke.
 
Prices of corn, soybeans and wheat continue to move erratically, reflecting both new information and the lack of some information, said a University of Illinois agricultural economist.

 

 
 

AgWeb Radio Analysis

 
AgWeb Radio: Opening Commentary 6-29-11
Andy Shissler of Roach Ag said a short covering rally began yesterday. Corn, Beans and Wheat all up overnite. Lots of concern about the numbers to be revealed in tomorrows report. Using options the best way to be either longor short the market now.
 
Rich Nelson, Director of Research at Allendale, Inc. -- Offers comments on their Planted Acerage and Quartely Grain Estimates. -- Official report to be released 7:30am CST Thursday 6-30-11.
 
Tom Grisafi of Indiana Grain Company said outside markets are friendly today. Market is trading higher today. Important for grain to have a good day. After the report Thursday morning --- a chance Corn will not trade!!
 
Greg Milkovich of Roach Ag says a slight pull back due to profit taking. Markets expected to open a little easier today. Watch for choppy markets leading up to June 30 report.
 
Jim Bower of Bower Trading -- prices are down, but not much new news. Suspect large funds are in liquidation phase. Book squaring in front of June 30 report is in progress. Commodity fund liquidation!!
 
Bob Utterback of Utterback Marketing reported the market was more of a surprise today after a seven day retracement. Corn, Beans off 30, Wheat at onetime down 51. Tone is most think we have good crops now -- so June 30 report will tell. Wheat will probably be the first to rebound in the next few days.
 
Mike Howlett of Top Third Ag Marketing says market firmer overnite. Spring wheat planted. Corn 97% emerged. Choppy trade going into June 30 report. Today expect corn, beans and wheat all to be higher.
 
Andy Shissler of Roach Ag said that at least over this weekend the markets weren't murdered. After the Greece settlement (now on going) and margins are met by traders in the markets -- there may be an opportunity for the markets to rebound before the June 30 report.
 
Doug Werling of Bower Trading says the Markets are higher today. Difficult to determine exactly why. July corn higher than July wheat - first time in 15 years. Feeling the June 30 report is most important. Higher dollar, higher energy, higher commodities usually do not go together. A confusing market today.

 

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COMMENTS (2 Comments)

WCMN Farmer - MN
And neither should anyone else but apparently the people controlling the money at CBOT do. Sure hard to be patriotic when your own government screws you over!
10:37 AM Jul 3rd
 
DAVID - SMITHFIELD, PA
I do not take much stock in anything USDA or the Federal Gov. has to tell us.
3:25 PM Jun 30th
 



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