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Gulke Special Report: Expect Another Corn Yield Reduction

June 11, 2013
By: Jen Russell, Managing Editor google + 
USDA   unloading corn

Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, offers his expectations for the June 12 USDA reports.

The U.S. corn crop is now 95% planted, with more than half of it in good to excellent condition. With warmer weather in the forecast, the market is now turning its attention to the June 12 USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates and Crop Production reports.

So what can producers expect in the June reports?

Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says he doesn't expect to see much change in stocks, but expect a reduction in export numbers.

"Exports have been dismal," he says. "They're just not there; we're not competitive, and we don't have (the supply) there to sell anyway, supposedly."

The real numbers to watch, however, are yield and planted acres.

Historically, Gulke says it's not unusual for USDA to lower its yield estimates during this report. This year is a little unusual, though, since the yield forecast was already lowered in May to 158 bu. per acre, down from the 164 bu. estimate USDA projected in February.

Gulke says it's a little unprecedented to have a national yield reduction that early, but with this year's late planting, USDA might lower the yield forecast again.

"There's reason to believe that the way they do their calculations, they could lower it another 2-4 bu. an acre," Gulke says. "If they were to lower it 8 to 10 bu., that would be a shock."

Gulke says planted acres might also be reduced.

"Along with that, you might expect that if they think we're going to produce less, they'll raise the average price for the farmer maybe 20 or 30 cents," he adds.

Listen in to Gulke's full analysis with Farm Journal Radio's Pam Fretwell:

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RELATED TOPICS: Corn, Marketing, USDA, Analysis, Exports

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