Market expert Jerry Gulke tells you how to prepare for and position yourself ahead of next week’s reports.
At 7:30 a.m. (CDT) on March 30, USDA will release their Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports. Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says we’ll likely see some blockbuster numbers released.
In the Prospective Plantings report, USDA will release survey data that was collected from farmers respect to what they said they will plant this year.
Of course, Gulke points out, this is just a survey of intentions and the best-laid plans will still depend on spring weather. "This year one would expect we plant everything we can."
So, where will the corn and soybean acreage numbers come in at?
"Six months ago, no one believed we could plant 94 million acres of corn, now that’s kind of common knowledge."
Gulke expects the report will show around 94.5 million acres of corn and 75 million acres of soybeans.
"If the corn acreage over 95.5 million acres, I think the market will be shocked in a bearish way. If they come out with 76.5 million bean acres, we’re in trouble. No one believes we’ll plant more beans."
As far as the Grain Stocks report, Gulke says surprises could also be found in those numbers.
"A lot of traders have been saying that USDA is lying, that we don’t have the corn they say we do. It’s just a matter of time that the government has to admit that we didn’t get the crop last year that everybody thinks that we got and we are eating more or disappearing more of it."
He says next week’s Grain Stocks report likely will be the last chance the guys who think we’re going to run out of corn to be right.
Gulke advises farmers to keep an eye on if the stocks come in more than the market anticipates.
The average guess is 6.2 billion bushels for corn as of March 1. "The market is not anticipating that we’re going to have more stocks than anyone thinks."
Listen to Gulke's full audio commentary:
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