Hogs & Pigs Report: Mild Herd Expansion

March 28, 2013 09:32 AM
 

Traders did a fairly good job pegging the report, with most of the categories coming within the pre-report guess ranges. The "misses," however, were on the top side of the ranges, giving the data a mildly negative tone.

Quarterly H&P Report

USDA

Avg. trade guess

Range

% of year-ago

 

All Hogs and Pigs

101

100.7

100.3-101.6

Kept for breeding

100

100.3

99.7-101.2

Kept for marketing

102

100.8

100.3-101.7

Dec-Feb pig crop

102

101.2

100.6-101.7

Dec-Feb pigs per litter

101

101.1

100.6-101.5

Dec-Feb farrowings

101

100.1

99.7-100.3

Mar-May farrowing int.

99
98.7

97.9-99.8

Jun-Aug farrowing int.

99

100.9

98.9-101.6

Hogs under 50 lbs.

101

100.9

100.4-101.5

Hogs 50 to 119 lbs.

101

100.7

100.1-102.7

Hogs 120-179

102

99.9

99.4-101.5

Hogs 180 and over

102

101.6

99.7-103.8

 

A slightly bigger-than-expected market hog inventory signals hog slaughter will continue to outpace year-ago moving forward. Breaking down the market hog numbers, the kill pace should run roughly 1% above year-ago through spring and summer. With abundant pork supplies in storage and a bigger-than-expected supply of hogs coming to market, there will continue to be pressure on demand to chew through supplies.

The winter pig crop came in 2% higher than year-ago thanks a pickup in farrowings and continued strong efficiency in the farrowing house as pigs per litter continue to trend higher.

Spring and summer farrowing intentions signal producers intend to trim production -- or at least that's what they indicated to USDA. But if there's a drop in feed prices, as expected, those intentions could change. After all, record-high feed prices triggered very little herd contraction last summer and fall, and we're hearing herds are being actively expanded in some areas of the Corn Belt.

Click here for the full report.

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