After more than a month of tooth gnashing and hand wringing from MF Global customers finally have their money is finally back in their white-knuckled hands. At least most of it, says Jerry Gulke, president of The Gulke Group
This should be welcomed news to the markets, he says, as the release of the funds should bring come confidence back into the markets. It was an early Christmas present reported on Friday.
That news, along with the release of 2012 planting projections by Informa Economics, pushed January soybeans more than 18 cents higher to close out the week, sparking a more confident outlook.
"Informa is actually lowering soybean acres. I don’t disagree with that, because we had 10.4 million acres of prevent planting in all areas last year."
The corn acreage projections from Gulke and Informa are both in 94-95 million acre range. Informa, however, is anticipating a 300,000 acre drop in soybean acres for 2012, citing more profitable opportunities in smaller acreage oilseed crops like crops and other grain crops. With a large chunk of the prevented planting acres coming from the Dakotas, this makes sense.
"You don’t have to plant corn and soybeans like I do in Illinois," Gulke says. "You can plant canola, barley and oats and other things in North Dakota, so there’s an alternative. Some of these other crops are offering pretty good money."
Gulke isn’t going to argue with these numbers, but he still expects to see more soybean acres in the Dakotas next spring. CRP expirations will also increase acreage, but Gulke believes most of that acreage will go to soybeans.