Kansas Leads HRW Wheat Ratings Lower

April 14, 2014 11:04 AM
 

Below we plug USDA's weekly crop condition ratings into our weighted (by production) Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (CCI; 0 to 500 point scale). The Pro Farmer CCI for the HRW wheat crop declined nearly 6 points last week 293, with Kansas leading the decline. The SRW wheat crop, on the other hand, improved 4 points the week ended April 13, rising to 352. The HRW wheat crop is rated in around 20-points higher than year-ago, while the SRW wheat crop is around 20 points below year-ago at this point.

Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index
HRW Wheat
04/13/14
04/06/14
04/14/13
Kansas *(38.58%)
110.71
114.18
104.70
Oklahoma (13.10%)
31.04
32.74
34.21
Texas (8.35%)
18.94
19.28
24.15
Colorado (7.77%)
22.53
22.45
22.33
Nebraska (6.26%)
22.05
21.67
15.97
S. Dakota (6.08%)
22.24
22.12
NA
Montana (10.15%)
37.34
37.24
NA
HRW total
293.39
298.74
271.56

* denotes percentage of total national HRW crop production.

(Palmer Drought Index below text.)

Following are details from USDA's NASS (NASS) state crop and weather reports:

Kansas: For the week ending April 13, 2014, conditions began warm and dry but ended with a storm system that dropped temperatures and precipitation, according to USDA's National Agriculture Statistics Service. Temperatures averaged four to six degrees warmer than normal before dropping on Sunday. Heaviest amounts of precipitation were recorded in the eastern third of Kansas. The much needed rain, along with areas of snow, was welcome and should improve wheat and pasture conditions. Producers took advantage of the dry, warm conditions early in the week to plant row crops, fertilize, and burn range. There were 6.0 days suitable for fieldwork. Topsoil moisture supplies rated 27% very short, 42% short, 31% adequate and 0% surplus. Subsoil moisture supplies rated 26% very short, 44% short, 30% adequate, and 0% surplus.

Winter wheat condition rated 10% very poor, 20% poor, 44% fair, 25% good, and 1% excellent. Winter wheat jointed was 31%, near 33% last year but behind 47% average.

Texas: Warmer temperatures returned throughout the state. Towards the end of the week, storms moved across to the state, which brought humid and windy weather. Many areas of North East Texas and the Blacklands received 0.5 inches to 1.5 inches of precipitation. Areas of South East Texas received 0.5 inches of precipitation. The remainder of the state recorded a trace to a quarter of an inch of precipitation.

Windy conditions in the Northern High Plains continued to damage winter wheat. Winter wheat in the Northern Low Plains began to turn blue as a result of the hot, dry weather. Wheat conditions in the Edwards Plateau showed some improvement due to warmer weather. Wheat fields in the Upper Coast showed improvement due to favorable weather conditions.

Oklahoma: Last week began with light rains, more in some areas than others. Minimal precipitation fell in all 9 districts last week, ranging from 0.01 of an inch in the Panhandle and the West Central District to 1.01 inches in the Southeast District. Since March 1, the entire state of Oklahoma has only received 55% of their normal precipitation. As the week progressed, the state experienced warmer, spring-like temperatures. Temperatures ranged from 24 degrees at Kenton on April 13, to 97 degrees at Buffalo on April 12. The warmer temperatures experienced last week accelerated the drought conditions, especially in the Panhandle. According to the most recent drought monitor, just over 13% of the state is categorized in an exceptional drought, compared to just over 8% the previous week. The entire state, assuredly the Western portion, is in dire need of precipitation to see any progress in winter crops.

Fire danger and dust storms in western Oklahoma persisted last week. Wind gusts were recorded as high as 40 mph in West Central Oklahoma. Southeastern Oklahoma received additional rains last week. The cool temperatures and windy conditions have slowed grass production, however, wheat conditions improved and corn progressed well. Topsoil moisture conditions were rated 24% adequate to surplus and 76% short to very short. Subsoil moisture conditions were rated 20% adequate to surplus and 80% short to very short. There were 6.3 days suitable for fieldwork on average across the state.

Small grains continue to be rated mostly fair to poor. Winter wheat jointing reached 80% by Sunday, 5 points ahead of the previous year and 6 points behind the five year average. Canola conditions were rated 52% fair to poor. Canola blooming reached 45% by week's end, compared to 37% this time last year and 44% on the five-year average. Eighty-two percent of oats had been seeded by Sunday, 13 points behind the previous year and 16 points behind the five-year average. Oats emerged reached 69% by week's end, up 10 points from last week. Rye jointing reached 46%, 34 points behind last year and 46 points behind the five-year average.

Nebraska: For the week ending April 13, above normal temperatures and dry conditions during the week gave way to precipitation in the form of rain and snow on Sunday, according to USDA's NASS. High winds created blizzard conditions across the west and south. Precipitation totals were heaviest in eastern counties, but lighter amounts were welcome in south central and southwestern areas where drought conditions were severe. Temperatures averaged 4 degrees above normal across the western half of the state and 6 to 8 degrees above normal much of the east.

A few fields of corn were planted in southern counties, but most producers were waiting for the weekend conditions to clear and soils to warm. Days suitable for fieldwork were 5.8. Topsoil moisture supplies rated 13% very short, 42% short, 45% adequate, and 1% surplus. Subsoil moisture supplies rated 17% very short, 43% short, 39% adequate, and 0% surplus.

Small grains continue to be rated mostly fair to poor. Winter wheat jointing reached 80% by Sunday, 5 points ahead of the previous year and 6 points behind the five-year average.

 

Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index
SRW Wheat
04/13/14
04/06/14
04/14/13
Missouri *(8.97%)
30.04
30.04
29.83
Illinois (9.91%)
35.18
34.19
35.86
Ohio
(8.80%)
29.92
29.30
42.19
Arkansas (6.45%)
23.61
23.29
20.52
Indiana (5.34%)
19.23
19.06
20.11
North Carolina (9.48%)
34.49
34.30
33.68
Michigan (9.50%)
33.16
32.97
39.88
SRW total
351.83
347.60
373.06

* denotes percentage of national SRW crop production.

Following are details from NASS's state-by-state crop and weather Reports:

Illinois: Severe storms and heavy rainfall continued throughout the state last week. Activities included anhydrous application, spring tillage, and oat planting. Potato and limited corn planting began early in the week. Statewide temperatures averaged 54.5 degrees, 5.1 degrees above normal. Statewide precipitation averaged 0.32 inches, 0.63 inches below normal. Topsoil moisture was rated at 1% very short, 9% short, 73% adequate, and 17% surplus. Subsoil moisture was rated at 5% very short, 27% short, 61% adequate, and 7% surplus. Winter wheat condition was rated at 3% very poor, 6% poor, 35% fair, 45% good, and 11% excellent.

Ohio: There were 0.9 days suitable for fieldwork in Ohio during the week ending April 13, according to the USDA, NASS, Great Lakes Region. While warmer temperatures dried the soil some, it was still too wet for most producers to do any field work. Some areas are still flooded from snowmelt and rain. Winter wheat and hay fields are starting to green up.

Michigan: According to the Great Lakes Regional office of the National Agricultural Statistics Service, melting snow rains, and freezing temperatures limited fieldwork for the week ending April 13. Winter wheat is slowly emerging from dormancy, and hay fields showed signs of growth.

Topsoil moisture 1% short, 36% adequate, 63% surplus. Subsoil moisture 2% short, 44% adequate, 54% surplus. Winter wheat jointed 1%.

Precipitation for the week ending April 13 ranged between 0.13 inch and 0.15 inch in the Upper Peninsula and between 0.29 inch and 2.35 inches in the Lower Peninsula. Temperatures ranged from 35.1 degrees to 43.3 degrees, with a state average of 44.1 degrees Fahrenheit.


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