Market Analysts Provide Yield Estimates

July 10, 2012

By: Sara Schafer, AgWeb.com Business and Crops Online Editor

Find out where several market estimates expect the average national corn yield estimate to come in at.

According to around 6,000 votes, readers of www.AgWeb.com are expecting low corn yields this fall.

Here is the vote breakdown:

Currently, USDA is estimating a national corn yield average of 166 bu./acre. Many market experts believe that number is high, way too high.

Alan Brugler, president of Brugler Marketing, says his current estimate is 149 bu./acre. But, he doesn’t think USDA will go below 154-155 bu./acre on Wednesday.

"Current prices are high enough to ration demand with a 13.2 billion bushel crop, as ending stocks would still be close to 1 billion bushels. However, that doesn't mean they won't go higher out of an abundance of caution!"

Justin Kelly, EHedger president, is predicting a national yield of 153 bu./acre. "We believe the market is already pricing in a 145-150 type yield, so expect corn to be reaching the top end of its range."

Ted Seifried, senior market strategist for the Zaner Group, says their current estimate is 151.5 bu./acre, but believes it could drop as low as 144 bu./acre if drought conditions continue.

"Using a 151.5 bu./acre national yield we see prices between $7.75 on the high end to $5.25 on the low end. The reduction in yield obviously tightens the balance sheet however we also expect a fair amount of demand destruction above $7. A strong dollar and crude oil prices under $100 a barrel could help corn price ration demand specifically in the export and ethanol sectors."

Greg Wagner, president of GWX Ag Advisors, is pegging the final national corn yield average at 149.7 bu./acre. "Given current crop condition ratings, the relative percent of crop that has pollinated under worst possible conditions, and the expanding soil moisture deficit in principal corn producing states it is clear that the U.S. is rapidly approaching a catastrophic crop failure."