The following content was provided by meteorologist Gail Martell of MartellCropProjections.com:
Argentina Expecting More Rain
Generous rainfall is expected to add up this week in a stalled trough of low pressure. Rainfall for the week is expected to reach 1.0 to 2.5 inches, potentially more in scattered strong thunderstorms. Temperatures would moderate, where heavy rains occur, but highs over 90 F are still predicted in the central grain belt.
Soybean prospects are relatively better than corn, though both crops suffered from extreme drought and heat previously.
For corn, the rain is coming too late since the majority of the crop already has pollinated under severe heat and moisture stress. Drought damage was worse than last year, particularly in a heat wave in January. Soybeans would have a better chance to make a profitable yield. Beans planted in November, the main month for sowing, would be flowering and setting pods in February. Very late planted soybeans would be filling beans into April. Of course, for soybeans to keep improving, the rainfall needs to keep coming.
A mid January satellite vegetation analysis is a reminder of the severe damage that occurred earlier, showing worse conditions compared to last year except for portions of Santa Fe. Cordoba a key corn state has suffered severe damage from drought.
USDA predicted a record 26 million metric tons (MMT) of Argentina corn in the January report, bolstered by a record planted area in corn. However, with drought, a significant amount of corn would be cut for silage, and not sold as grain.
U.S. Hard Red Winter Wheat Needs More Rain
Growing conditions in U.S. hard red winter wheat are deteriorating. The weather has reverted back to a dry pattern in the Southern Great Plains. Virtually no precipitation has occurred in over a month in Kansas, Oklahoma and West Texas. Other bread-wheat states Colorado, Nebraska, South Dakota and Montana also are very dry.
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