Martell: Heat Stress Intensifies in Argentina

February 21, 2012

By: Julianne Johnston, Pro Farmer News Editor

The following content was provided by meteorologist Gail Martell of MartellCropProjections.com:

Heat Stress in Argentina Corn Worsens Production Outlook

Exceptionally hot summer temperatures in Argentina's corn belt is expected to shrink the yield, producing a harvest of 20 to 20.5 million metric tons (MMT) and worse than last year's 22.5 MMT harvest. The Argentina agriculture ministry issued its first forecast for corn predicting production in a range from 20.5 to 22 MMT. Growing conditions this summer have been hotter and drier than 2010-11, arguing for production near the low end of the Ministry's range.

Rio Cuarto in western Cordoba, a key corn area, recorded 36 days over 90 F and 4 days above 100 F since early December. A major portion of corn was pollinating under heat-wave conditions. Unseasonal heat has persisted into February, keeping stress on corn and causing premature ripening. Late-planted corn would be in the grain filling stage in February.

Farmers planted a record area of corn, but a significant portion of the crop has been irreversibly damaged by drought and will be grazed out or cut for silage, perhaps 15-20% of the planted area. The USDA corn area for harvest estimate seems too optimistic, identical to last year, despite a worse drought.

The USDA 2011-12 corn estimate at 22.50 MMT s is close to last year’s 23 MMT harvest. We believe prospects are worse from more intense heat and dryness, suggesting corn production 20- 20.5 MMT and near the low end of the Ministry's range of estimates.

Worrisome Drought in Canadian Prairies

A 6-month drought has reduced field moisture in the Canadian prairies, a potential threat to crop production in 2012. The 3 prairie provinces Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba produce more than 95% of Canada grains and oilseeds.

Northern Alberta and northwestern Saskatchewan have received only 25 – 50 millimeters (1-2 inches) of precipitation since September 1. This represents a 3-5 inch precipitation moisture deficit.

Normally winters are rather dry on the prairies. This year was no exception. What is unusual was an incredible long dry stretch in 2011 beginning in July and continuing through into the winter, in which hardly any precipitation was received. Growers claimed that warm sunny conditions in September-October were ideal for grain drying and harvesting. However, it was the beginning of a prolonged drought.