Change is constant – and complex – in today’s commodity future’s markets. Grain market experts scour the globe looking for any insights to gain a competitive edge. Here is sample of what some of them have been saying this week.
Ted Seifried, chief market strategist and vice president at the Zaner Ag Hedge Group, is questioning whether soybeans have already reached their spring high. That typically happens once the crop is 50% planted (the crop was 59% planted as of May 25).
"This can be especially true in years where there are concerns about planting delays, such as this year," he says. "This year we may not only be looking at spring highs, but possibly yearly highs as well."
Kevin Van Trump, with Farm Direction, says farmers don’t seem to be interested in planting many more corn acres. But, any acres lost in the north and east could be offset by what he considers a conservative early acreage estimate from USDA.
"My hunch is as long as the weather plays itself out [as the NOAA is predicting], it will be tough to rally corn in any extended fashion," he says.
Dan Hueber, with The Huber Report, says wheat sits in a very technically oversold position at the moment. Could it see a corrective rebound? Maybe not – the weather outlook is favorable domestically and across Northern Europe and Russia moving forward.
"I suspect it would require something out of the ordinary to bring buyers back to this market," he says.
Alan Brugler, the President of Brugler Marketing & Management, has cast a wary eye to the weather. That’s because one of the cardinal rules of trading is, "If you trade the news, you lose."
"We’re into the growing season, and weather news will dominate," he says. "Try to tune out the daily hype, watch for broad trends, and let the price charts tell you what the market really knows about the situation."
Market Rally, a podcast featuring Pro Farmer’s Chip Flory, breaks down market highlights each afternoon when the markets close. Market Rally broadcasts to these affiliates, so you can listen live starting at 2:06 CST. Or, catch up anytime online at http://www.agweb.com/multimedia/market_rally/podcast.aspx.
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