Change is constant – and complex – in today’s commodity future’s markets. Grain market experts scour the globe looking for any insights to gain a competitive edge. Here is sample of what some of them have been saying this week.
Bob Utterback, president of Utterback Marketing Services, says despite strong corn export figures, the crop looks good overall and there’s little reason for the market to go higher.
"The most one might hope for is a retracement back to the $4.75 - $4.80 level," he says.
For those needing to make cash sales, Utterback recommends using the market to place hedges and anticipate storing until March 2015.
Is the USDA soybean yield estimate of 45 bu. per acre too high? That’s what Kevin Van Trump of Farm Direction has been asking.
"There is new evidence floating around the trade that shows overall yield growth in the US is actually slowing down a bit," he says. "Rather than adding the 0.5 bushel per acre per year to our trend-line estimates, some are arguing that number needs to be reduced."
Despite questioning per-acre yield estimates, Van Trump says harvested acres could end up north of 81 million acres, in which case "we could end up swimming in soybeans."
Kevin McNew, president of Grain Hedge and Geograin, is hopeful for opportunities for higher wheat prices.
"Fundamental and technical factors have combined to support prices," he says. "With yesterday’s (6/3) decline, U.S. export prices for Chicago (SRW) wheat are now nearly in-line with Black Sea exporters for the first time in months. This will open the door to export business in the weeks to come from buyers who have remained on the sidelines."
McNew is also closely monitoring Panara, the No. 2 production state in Brazil. The region recorded zero degree temperatures, which could affect the corn crop, although it’s still too early to speculate what the exact damage might be, he says.
Market Rally, a podcast featuring Pro Farmer’s Chip Flory, breaks down market highlights each afternoon when the markets close. Market Rally broadcasts to these affiliates, so you can listen live starting at 2:06 CST. Or, catch up anytime online at http://www.agweb.com/multimedia/market_rally/podcast.aspx.
The AgWeb discussion boards continue to be a farmer-led wealth of information. Ask questions, answer questions, offer opinions or just follow along.