** 2011-12 U.S. CARRYOVER **
- CORN: 801 million bu.; unch from Feb. proj. of 801 million bu.
-- compares to 1.128 billion bu. in 2010-11
- BEANS: 275 million bu.; unch from Feb. proj. of 275 million bu.
-- compares to 215 million bu. in 2010-11
- WHEAT: 825 million bu.; down from Feb. proj. of 845 million bu.
-- compares to 862 million bu. in 2010-11
- COTTON: 3.9 million bales; up from Feb. proj. of 3.8 mil. bales
-- compares to 2.6 million bales in 2010-11
For corn, USDA made no change on the supply or demand side of the balance sheet. With no change to Argentine corn production, there was little reason to increase estimated U.S. corn exports to offset what the market expected to be lost global supply from South America. USDA's national average on-farm cash price projection is now $5.90 (up a dime from February) to $6.50 (down a dime).
For soybeans, USDA made minor -- almost ridiculous -- changes to the Supply & Demand table. The supply side is unchanged, but USDA cut estimated 2011-12 seed use 1 million bu. and offset that with a 2-million-bu. increase in residual use. Rounding of the numbers left carryover unchanged from February. USDA's national average on-farm cash price projection is now $11.40 to $12.60, up 30 cents on both ends of the range from February.
For wheat, USDA left the supply side unchanged from February. On the demand side, USDA cut estimated food use 5 million bu., but more than offset that with a 25-million-bu. increase to estimated old-crop exports. That dropped old-crop carryover 20 million bu. from February. USDA now puts the national average on-farm cash price at $7.15 to $7.45, unchanged from February.
For cotton, USDA added 100,000 bales to estimated carryover. On the supply side, USDA increased total supply 10,000 bales with a like increase in estimated imports. On the demand side, USDA cut domestic use 100,000 bales, which was slightly offset with a 10,000-bale cut to unaccounted use. The result is an unexpected uptick in carryover. USDA's national average price is 88 (up a penny from February) to 93 cents (unchanged).
Bottom line: Today's Supply & Demand Report was enough of a non-event that traders will now focus very clearly on the March 30 Prospective Plantings Report.
** 2011-12 GLOBAL CARRYOVER **
- CORN: 124.53 MMT; down from 125.35 MMT in Feb.
-- compares to 129.07 MMT in 2010-11
- BEANS: 57.3 MMT; down from 60.28 MMT in Feb.
-- compares to 68.76 MMT in 2010-11
- WHEAT: 209.58 MMT; down from 213.1 MMT in Feb.
-- compares to 199.49 MMT in 2010-11
- COTTON: 62.32 mil. bales; up from 60.77 mil. bales in Feb.
-- compares to 47.26 million bales in 2010-11
** 2011-12 GLOBAL PRODUCTION HIGHLIGHTS **
- ARGENTINA BEANS: 46.5 MMT; compares to 48.0 MMT in February
-- compares to 49.0 MMT in 2010-11
- BRAZIL BEANS: 68.5 MMT; compares to 72.0 MMT in February
-- compares to 75.5 MMT in 2010-11
- ARGENTINA WHEAT: 14.5 MMT; compares to 14.5 MMT in February
-- compares to 16.1 MMT in 2010-11
- AUSTRALIA WHEAT: 29.5 MMT; compares to 28.3 MMT in February