PF Special -- Reaction to Prospective Plantings & Grain Stocks Reports

March 31, 2014 06:47 AM
 

Market reaction

Ahead of the reports, May corn futures were trading around 14 cents lower and December corn futures were around 8 cents lower. Corn futures firmed after the report data was released and are now trading mostly 5 to 8 cents higher.

May soybean futures were fractionally lower ahead of the report, while November beans were around 8 cents lower. Soybean futures are being aggressively bull spread. May soybean futures are now around 16 cents higher, while November beans are trade around 9 cents lower.

SRW wheat futures were mostly 10 to 12 cents lower heading into the reports, while HRW futures were mostly 7 to 8 cents lower and HRS futures were 6 to 8 cents lower. Wheat futures have pared losses to trade narrowly mixed with a slight downside bias on spillover support from the corn market.

Cotton futures were mildly favoring the downside ahead of the report. Cotton futures are trading at virtually the same price levels they were ahead of the reports.

Prospective Plantings Report

CORN: 91.691 mil. acres; trade expected 92.748 mil. acres
-- compares to 95.365 mil. acres in 2013
SOYBEANS: 81.493 mil. acres; traders expected 81.075 mil. acres
-- compares to 76.533 mil. acres in 2013
ALL WHEAT: 55.815 mil. acres; traders expected 56.277 mil. acres
-- compares to 56.156 mil. acres in 2013
SPRING WHEAT: 12.009 mil. acres; traders expected 12.270 mil. acres
-- compares to 11.596 mil. acres in 2013
DURUM WHEAT: 1.799 mil. acres; traders expected 1.794 mil. acres
-- compares to 1.470 mil. acres in 2013
COTTON: 11.101 mil. acres; traders expected 11.16 mil. acres
-- compares to 10.407 mil. acres in 2013

As of March 1, producers intended to plant 3.674 million fewer corn acres than last year. That's 1.057 million acres less than the average pre-report guess. For the major production states, USDA signals corn acres will be down in: Illinois (-100,000 at 11.9 million); Indiana (-200,000 at 5.8 million), Missouri (-50,000 at 3.3 million); Nebraska (-550,000 at 9.4 million); North Dakota (-900,000 at 2.95 million); Ohio (-200,000 at 3.7 million); South Dakota (-400,000 at 5.8 million); and Texas (-250,000 at 2.1 million). Corn acres are expected to be steady with year-ago in Michigan (2.6 million) and Minnesota (8.6 million). Only Iowa (+400,000 at 14.0 million) and Kansas (+100,000 at 4.4 million) are expected to increase corn acreage from last year.

Soybean planting intentions came in nearly 5 million acres higher than last year and roughly 400,000 more than the average pre-report guess. Of the major production states, only Missouri (-100,000 at 5.5 million) wasn't projected to increase soybean acreage. Soybean plantings are expected to be higher in: Arkansas (+90,000 at 3.35 million); Illinois (+50,000 at 9.5 million); Indiana (+300,000 at 5.5 million); Iowa (+300,000 at 9.6 million); Kansas (+300,000 at 3.9 million); Michigan (+200,000 at 2.1 million); Minnesota (+700,000 at 7.4 million); North Dakota (+1 million at 5.65 million); Ohio (+250,000 at 4.7 million); and South Dakota (+200,000 at 4.8 million).

Spring wheat planting intentions came in 413,000 acres more than last year, but 261,000 acres fewer than the average pre-report guess. The top production state of North Dakota is expected to plant 800,000 more spring wheat acres this year (5.9 million). Spring wheat acres are expected to be down 350,000 in Montana (at 2.6 million) and down 90,000 in South Dakota (1.1 million). Minnesota spring wheat acreage is expected to be steady with year-ago at 1.2 million acres.

Cotton plantings are expected to be up 694,000 from last year. That was very close to the average pre-report guess. The big increase is in Texas (+600,000 at 6.4 million acres). Otherwise, there were just modest changes from year-ago in the major production states.


Quarterly Grain Stocks Report

CORN: 7.006 billion bu.; traders expected 7.099 billion bu.
-- compares to 10.426 bil. bu. Dec. 1; 5.4 bil. bu. March 1, 2013
SOYBEANS: 992 million bu.; traders expected 989 million bu.
-- compares to 2.148 bil. bu. Dec. 1; 998 mil. bu. March 1, 2013
WHEAT: 1.056 billion bu.; traders expected 1.042 billion bu.
-- compares to 1.463 bil. bu. Dec. 1; 1.235 bil. bu. Mar 1, 2013

Traders did a very good job anticipating March 1 grain stocks, which says a lot. This is the report, especially for corn, traders have struggled getting a handle on for years.

March 1 corn stocks came in 93 million bu. lower than the average pre-report guess. Of the 7.006 billion bu. of corn on hand as of March 1, on-farm stocks totaled 3.86 billion bu., up 45% from year-ago and off-farm stocks totaled 3.15 billion bu., up 15% from last year. Implied disappearance during the second quarter of 2013-14 was 3.45 billion bu., up 31.2%.

March 1 soybean stocks were a scant 3 million bu. higher than anticipated. Of the total, on-farm stocks are estimated at 382 million bu., down 16% from year-ago while off-farm stocks are pegged at 610 million bu., up 13% from last year. Implied second-quarter 2013-14 use was a record 1.16 billion bu., up 20% from year-ago.

March 1 wheat stocks came in 13 million bu. above the average pre-report guess. On-farm stocks totaled 238 million bu., up slightly from last year. Off-farm stocks totaled 818 million bu., down 18% from last year. Implied third-quarter 2013-14 disappearance was 419 million bu., down 4% from the same period last year.

Back to news

Comments

 

Rate this News Article:

Spell Check

No comments have been posted to this News Article

Close