PF Special -- Reaction to USDA's January Reports

January 10, 2014 05:36 AM
 

NOTE: This is an abbreviated reaction to USDA's January crop reports due to time constraints with our weekly newsletter production. A more in-depth analysis of the numbers will be in "Evening Report" later today.

 

MARKET REACTION

Ahead of the reports, March corn was trading down 5 cents and is now 15 cents higher on support from the smaller-than-expected Dec. 1 grain stocks and record first-quarter usage pace. December corn futures were trading 6 cents lower ahead of the report and are now 12 cents higher.

March soybeans were 13 cents higher ahead of the report and have softened a bit to trade around a dime higher. November soybeans were 3 cents higher in early trade and are now 1 1/2 cents lower.

March SRW futures were 1 cents higher early and are now down 14 cents; HRW futures were up 4 cents and are now 8 cents lower in the front-month; March spring wheat futures were up 6 ahead of the report and are now down 4 cents.

March cotton futures were trading about 100 points higher ahead of the report and are now trading up about 10 points.

 

ANNUAL CROP PRODUCTION SUMMARY

CORN: 13.925 billion bu.; trade expected 14.053 billion bu.
-- compares to 13.989 billion bu. in Nov.; 10.780 billion bu. in 2012
BEANS: 3.289 billion bu., trade expected 3.27 billion bu.
-- compares to 3.258 billion bu. in Nov.; 3.034 billion bu. in 2012
COTTON: 13.19 million bales; trade expected 13.0 million bales
-- compares to 13.069 million bales in Dec.; 17.315 million bales in 2012


USDA surprised the market with a 64-million-bu. cut to the 2013 corn crop estimate from November. The estimate is also 128 million bu. below the average pre-report trade estimate. USDA now puts the national average corn yield at 158.8 bu. per acre, down from 160.1 bu. per acre in the November Crop Production Report.

USDA did, however, increase the bean crop estimate by 31 million bu. That's also 12 million bu. above the average pre-report trade estimate. USDA now puts the national average bean yield at 43.3 bu. per acre, up from 43 bu. per acre in November.

The cotton crop estimate came in 190,000 bales above the average pre-report trade estimate and is up 121,000 bales from the November estimate.


QUARTERLY GRAIN STOCKS

CORN: 10.426 billion bu.; trade expected 10.77 billion bu.
-- compares to 824 million bu. Sept. 1; 8.03 billion bu. Dec. 1, 2012
BEANS: 2.148 billion bu.; trade expected 2.17 billion bu.
-- compares to 141 million bu. Sept. 1; 1.97 billion bu. Dec. 1, 2012
WHEAT: 1.463 million bu.; trade expected 1.41 billion bu.
-- compares to 1.85 billion bu. Sept. 1; 1.67 billion bu. Dec. 1, 2012

The smaller-than-expected 2013 corn crop resulted in a smaller-than-expected Dec. 1 corn stocks tally. Corn stocks in all positions are 344 million bu. below the average pre-report trade estimate. Implied use in the first-quarter of the 2013-14 marketing year is 4.32 billion bu., compared to 3.74 billion bu. during the same quarter last year.

Despite the bigger-than-expected bean crop, Dec. 1 bean stocks are 22 million bu. below the average pre-report trade estimate. Implied use in the first quarter of the 2013-14 marketing year is 1.28 billion bu., up 4% from the same period last year.

Wheat stocks in all positions are 53 million bu. above the average pre-report trade estimate. Implied use in the second quarter of the 2013-14 marketing year is 407 million bu., down 6% from the same period last year.


WINTER WHEAT SEEDINGS

ALL WINTER WHEAT: 41.892 mil. acres; trade expected 43.7 mil. acres
-- compares to 43.09 mil. acres in 2013
HRW: 30.1 mil. acres; trade expected 30.4 mil. acres
-- compares to 29.6 mil. acres in 2013
SRW: 8.44 mil. acres; trade expected 9.7 mil. acres
-- compares to 10.0 mil. acres in 2013
WHITE WINTER: 3.39 mil. acres; trade expected 3.5 mil. acres
-- compares to 3.5 mil. acres in 2013

All winter wheat seedings are 1.808 million acres below the average pre-report trade estimate. The smaller-than-expected seedings are spread out across the winter wheat flavors. Soft red seedings are 1.26 million acres below expectations, hard red seedings are 300,000 below expectations and white winter seedings fell 110,000 acres below trade expectations.

 

2013-14 U.S. CARRYOVER

CORN: 1.631 billion bu.; down from Dec. proj. of 1.792 billion bu.
-- compares to 824 million bu. in 2012-13
BEANS: 150 million bu.; unch from Dec. proj. of 150 million bu.
-- compares to 141 million bu. in 2012-13
WHEAT: 608 million bu.; up from Dec. proj. of 575 million bu.
-- compares to 718 million bu. in 2012-13
COTTON: 3.0 million bales; unch from Dec. proj. of 3.0 million bales
-- compares to 3.9 million bales in 2012-13

Corn carryover is now estimated 161 million bu. below the December estimate. USDA cut total supplies by 61 million bushels. Total use was increased 100 million bushels with all of the increase in the feed & residual category. USDA now puts the national average on-farm cash corn price at $4.10 to $4.70, up a nickel on the bottom and down a nickel on the top end of the range from last month.

Bean carryover is steady with the December estimate. Total supplies were increased by 31 million bushels. Total use was increased 30 million bu. with estimated crush up 10 million bu. and estimated exports up 20 million bushels.

Wheat carryover is up 33 million bu. from the December estimate. Total supplies were unchanged from December. USDA cut total use by 33 million bu. with a 60-million-bu. cut to feed & residual use partially offset by a 25-million-bu. increase in estimated exports and a 1-million-bu. increase in expected seed use.

Cotton carryover is unchanged from December. Total supplies were up 120,000 bales from December, which were completely offset by a 100,000-bale increase in exports and a 20,000-bale increase in estimated unaccounted use.

 

2013-14 GLOBAL CARRYOVER

CORN: 160.23 MMT; down from Dec. proj. of 162.46 MMT
-- 132.98 MMT for 2012-13
BEANS: 72.33 MMT; up from Dec. proj. of 70.62 MMT
-- 60.55 MMT for 2012-13
WHEAT: 185.4 MMT; up from Dec. proj. of 182.78 MMT
-- 176.13 MMT for 2012-13
COTTON: 97.61 mil. bales; up from Dec. proj. of 96.41 mil. bales
-- 89.17 MMT for 2012-13

 

2013-14 GLOBAL PRODUCTION HIGHLIGHTS

ARGENTINA BEANS: 54.5 MMT; compares to 54.5 MMT in December
-- 49.3 MMT for 2012-13
BRAZIL BEANS: 89.0 MMT; compares to 88.0 MMT in December
-- 82.0 MMT for 2012-13
ARGENTINA WHEAT: 10.5 MMT; compares to 11.0 MMT in December
-- 9.5 MMT for 2012-13
AUSTRALIA WHEAT: 26.5 MMT; compares to 26.5 MMT in December
-- 22.46 MMT for 2012-13
CHINA WHEAT: 122.0 MMT; compares to 121.0 MMT in December
-- 121.02 MMT for 2012-13
CANADA WHEAT: 37.5 MMT; compares to 37.5 MMT in December
-- 27.21 MMT for 2012-13
EU WHEAT: 142.9 MMT; compares to 143.12 MMT in December
-- 133.88 MMT for 2012-13
RUSSIA WHEAT: 52.1 MMT; compares to 51.5 MMT in December
-- 37.72 MMT for 2012-13
FSU-12 WHEAT: 105.02 MMT; compares to 104.06 MMT in December
-- 77.46 MMT for 2012-13
CHINA CORN: 217.0 MMT; compares to 211.0 MMT in December
-- 205.6 MMT for 2012-13
ARGENTINA CORN: 25.0 MMT; compares to 26.0 MMT in December
-- 26.5 MMT for 2012-13
SOUTH AFRICA CORN: 13.0 MMT; compares to 13.0 MMT in December
-- 12.37 MMT for 2012-13
BRAZIL CORN: 70.0 MMT; compares to 70.0 MMT in December
-- 81.0 MMT for 2012-13
CHINA COTTON: 33.0 mil. bales; compares to 32.0 mil. bales in December
-- 35.0 MMT for 2012-13

Back to news

Comments

 

Rate this News Article:

Spell Check

Anonymous
1/12/2014 02:07 AM
 

  what happened to Brazil's horrendous big bean crop that was going to ruin our market this fall? I sold my beans with in a dollar of what averaged last year.

 
 
Close