Prevented-Plant Acreage Talk To Resurface?

August 15, 2013 01:36 AM
 

What Traders are Talking About:

Overnight highlights: As of 6:30 a.m. CT, corn futures are trading 1 to 2 cents higher, soybeans are 4 to 6 cents higher and wheat futures are mixed with a slight upside bias. A key in the day session is whether corn can maintain the modest corrective gains posted overnight. Cattle and hog futures are expected to be choppy this morning.

 

* Initial FSA acreage data released. Prevented-plant acres have been a hot topic throughout farm country all summer, but once crops were finally planted, the market's attention shifted to growing conditions and weather, while the number of unplanted acres this year were brushed aside. Well... prevented-plant talk could start to get some more attention in the marketplace as USDA's Farm Service Agency released initial certified acreage data this morning. For a rundown of initial prevented-plant acres via FSA's initial certified acreage data, click here.

The long and short of it: Subsequent FSA postings on certified acres will occur on Sept. 17, Oct. 16, Nov. 13, Dec. 13 and a final report will be posted about Jan. 15, 2014. USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service will begin to incorporate the FSA certified acreage data into its Crop Production Report in October, but regularly monitors the data.

* Summer heat ahead. August temps have been very mild thus far, but a heat wave is set to move into the western Corn Belt over the weekend and stick around through next week. Some of that building heat may push into the eastern Belt, depending on how the jet stream shifts. Meanwhile, dry conditions are expected to continue. The combination of heat and continued dryness is starting to get traders' attention as they are sensing this will trim yield potential, especially in the driest areas. Producers are already signaling corn is tipping back and soybeans are at risk of aborting pods, but traders are now just starting to pay some attention.

The long and short of it: Traders' level of concern is still relatively limited, but the potential hit to soybeans is getting more attention than any impact to corn.

* Demand for state-owned Chinese soybeans improves. China sold 198,976 MT (39.7%) of 2009- and 2010-crop state-owned soybeans put up for auction this week. While the sales volume and average price were up from the initial auction last week, demand remains relatively limited. Typically, demand for older state-owned soybean supplies is limited as crushers are concerned about quality and they would rather pay higher prices for much better quality imported supplies.

The long and short of it: The weekly auctions will continue as China works to trim old soybean supplies ahead of harvest, but demand should remain relatively limited and therefore, have little to no market impact.

 

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