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Strategies for Your In-the-Bin Corn

November 22, 2013
By: Ed Clark, Top Producer Business and Issues Editor
grain bin truck

You can still achieve decent prices for just-harvested crops, but you’ll have to work at it. Here's some advice.

The word across farm country is that most corn left the field and went straight to the bin. Marketing experts agree that you need a plan for that grain.

These comments are experts from a recent Top Producer article that features analysis and commentary from 15 ag market analysts. Read the full article: They Say It’s a Bear Market

Jeff Beal, Gulke Group

For just-harvested corn, farmers should focus on selling for the carry and padding their income by selling call options. Soybeans also face lower price pressure, but demand from China might continue to provide price support, at least in the near term. The inverted soybean market says farmers should sell now.

Without an unforeseen demand catalyst, we’ll have to rely on a weather-induced supply shock somewhere to get back to $6 corn and $15 soybeans. 

Naomi Blohm, Stewart-Peterson

Global ending stocks for corn arethe highest in 10 years, and this keeps prices on the defensive, allowing futures to test $4 per bushel. When we’re in a doom and gloom scenario, typically fundamental news emerges and turns the market around.

At this time, farmers should view any rally as a selling opportunity. Prepare for both bullish and bearish scenarios. Make incremental sales as prices go to the high end of ranges. If prices break through technical resistance, plan to re-own the crop. Finally, establish price levels for making cash sales.

Richard Brock, Brock Associates

Commodity prices are cyclical, and the current downside price cycle is not yet complete. It will likely run through January. Once a bottom is discovered, both corn and soybeans will enter a base-building phase that could take anywhere from a few months to three years to achieve.

For corn, we have been heavily priced in short futures for months and will be looking to take profits soon. To price remaining corn, we will look for basis improvements between now and March. Soybeans will feel negative price pressure from sharp production increases in South America.

Alan Brugler, Brugler Marketing

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RELATED TOPICS: Corn, Soybeans, Marketing

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