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Treasuries Fall as U.S. Employment Data Sustain Fed Speculation

June 7, 2013

June 7 (Bloomberg) -- Treasuries fell after U.S. payrolls increased in May more than forecast even as the jobless rate unexpectedly rose, keeping alive speculation the Federal Reserve may slow its bond-buying under quantitative-easing stimulus.

The drop pared U.S. 10-year notes’ first weekly gain since April. A measure of volatility in Treasuries climbed yesterday to almost a one-year high. The Fed will trim its asset purchases in October by less than previously forecast, economists in a Bloomberg survey projected earlier.

"It may give the Fed pause to taper at the end of the year rather than earlier," Aaron Kohli, an interest-rate strategist BNP Paribas in New York, one of 21 primary dealers that trade with the Fed. "It was one of those numbers that doesn’t give us enough to push us in any strong direction, and that uncertainty is being reflected in the markets."

The 10-year note yield increased three basis points, or 0.03 percentage point, to 2.11 percent at 9:39 a.m. in New York, according to Bloomberg Bond Trader prices. It dropped as much as four basis points. It has lost two basis points this week. Thirty-year bond yields rose four basis points to 3.28 percent.

Payrolls rose by 175,000 jobs after a revised 149,000 increase in April that was smaller than first estimated, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey called for a 163,000 gain. The unemployment rate rose to 7.6 percent, from 7.5 percent.

"The number was right in line," said William Larkin, a fixed-income portfolio manager who helps oversee $500 million at Cabot Money Management Inc., from Salem, Massachusetts. "The market was expecting a restraining growth number."


High Volatility


Volatility in Treasuries as measured by the Bank of America Merrill Lynch MOVE index climbed to 84.75 yesterday, the highest since June 18, 2012. It has averaged 62.5 in the past 12 months.

Treasury 10-year notes dropped on May 3 for the first time in three days, pushing yields up 11 basis points to 1.74 percent, when the Labor Department’s April report showed payroll gains exceeded the 140,000-job forecast in a Bloomberg survey and the jobless rate unexpectedly fell.

Ten-year notes climbed on April 5, when the government said payrolls added 88,000 jobs in March, trailing a Bloomberg survey forecast for a gain of 190,000.

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