USFR Weekly Recap - JULY 26-27, 2014

July 26, 2014 03:30 AM
 

 

Today on USFR
July 26-27, 2014
HEADLINES:
U.S. FARM REPORT BROUGHT TO YOU BY THE ALL NEW CHEVY SILVERADO. 2014 NORTH AMERICAN TRUCK OF THE YEAR…TODAY ON U-S FARM REPORT...PRICES ARE UP, BUT THE NATIONAL COW HERD IS SLOW TO REBUILD. MORE OIL ON WHEELS PROMPTS NEW RAILROAD RULES AND CANADIAN WHEAT FARMERS CAN'T SEEM TO GET A SUNNY DAY THIS YEAR.
JOHN OPEN:
HELLO AND WELCOME TO U-S FARM REPORT, I'M JOHN PHIPPS WE'LL CHECK IN WITH MIKE FOR DETAILS LATER, BUT THE WEATHER HAS BEEN A REAL PUZZLE THIS YEAR. IT'S HARD TO COMPLAIN ABOUT A COOL JULY IN MY PART OF THE CORNBELT, BUT IT SEEMS THE HEAT HAS JUST BEEN CROWDED ONTO THE COASTS. WEATHER SYSTEMS SEEM TO DAWDLE AS THEY WANDER THROUGH THE COUNTRY. ALL THESE ANOMALIES MAKE JUDGING OUR CROPS AN UNEASY BUSINESS. IF WE GO BY LOOKS, WHAT'S TO WORRY ABOUT? MAYBE PLUNGING PRICES HAVE US LOOKING FOR PROBLEMS. BUT UNUSUAL CONDITIONS TEND TO PRODUCE USUAL RESULTS. AND WEARING A SWEATSHIRT TO MOW THE YARD IN JULY IS DEFINITELY NOT NORMAL.TIME NOW FOR THE HEADLINES.....HERE'S TYNE MORGAN.
CATTLE ON FEED:
 THANKS, JOHN. AS THE DROUGHT IMPROVES IN AREAS OF THE PLAINS, HOPES OF STARTING TO REBUILD THE NATION'S CATTLE HERD ARE ENTERING CONVERSATIONS AGAIN. BUT AS THE LATEST CATTLE OF FEED REPORT SHOWS, THAT PROCESS WILL BE SLOW.
RAIL SHIPMENT RULES:
SAFETY CONCERNS OVER TRANSPORTING FUELS, LIKE CRUDE AND ETHANOL, VIA RAIL HAS SPARKED ACTION IN WASHINGTON.THE DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION ROLLED OUT NEW PROPOSED RULES THIS WEEK, ONE OF WHICH WOULD PHASE OUT THE USE OF OLDER D-O-T ONE-ELEVEN TANK CARS FOR THE SHIPMENT OF FLAMMABLE LIQUIDS. THE EXCEPTION IS IF THE CAR IS RETRFITTED FOR NEW SAFETY STANDARDS.  THE RULES ALSO APPLY SPEED RESTRICTIONS TO ANY TANK CAR THAT DOESN'T MEET THE ENHANCED STANDARD. A 60-DAY COMMENT PERIOD IS NOW UNDERWAY.
OIL REFINERIES:
MEANWHILE, U-S OIL REFINDERIES ARE RUNNING AT RECORD LEVELS. THIS GRAPH SHOWS THE WEEKLY OUTPUT AMOUNTS COMPARED TO THE 5-YEAR AVERAGE.AS YOU CAN SEE, REFINERY INPUTS SHOT UP STARTING IN JUNE, HITTING A RECORD HIGH OF 16 POINT 8 MILLION BARRELLS PER DAY THE PAST TWO WEEKS…THAT TOPS THE PREVIOUS RECORD SET DURING THE SUMMER OF 2005.
CROP CONDITIONS:
MEANWHILE, THE U-S SOYBEAN CROP IS IMPRESSIVE SO FAR, WITH CONDITIONS THE BEST IN 20 YEARS. USDA SAYS 73 PERCENT IS GOOD TO EXCELLENT, A SLIGHT INCREASE FROM LAST WEEK.  AND THE CORN CROP IS STEADY. 76 PERCENT IS IN THE TOP TWO CATEGORIES.
WE CAUGHT UP WITH FARMERS AT FARM JOURNAL'S ANNUAL CORN COLLEGE THIS WEEK.  AND WHILE SOME SAY THEY'RE SEEING THE BEST CROP EVER, OTHERS SAY CONDITIONS ARE MIXED.
PITCH TO MIKE:
ARE REPORTS AS MIXED IN OTHER AREAS OF THE COUNTRY? METEOROLOGIST MIKE HOFFMAN HAS MORE REPORTS IN CROP WATCH.
TEASE ONE:
WE SAW A LITTLE LIFE IN THE SOYBEAN PIT AT THE END OF THE WEEK. COULD THAT CONTINUE INTO NEXT? TYNE MORGAN IS JOINED BY MARK GOLD AND JAMEY KOHAKE {KOE-WAH-KEE} OR FOR THIS WEEK'S MARKET TALK RIGHT AFTER THE BREAK.
 JOHN’S WORLD:
 ANALYSIS OF THE CENSUS OF AG DATA IS BEGINNING TO APPEAR IN THE MEDIA AS VARIOUS AG EXPERTS INTERPRET THE NUMBERS. FOR MY STATE - ILLINOIS - TODD KEUTHE HAS BEEN POSTING SHORT SUMMARIES ON FARMDOCDAILY. THERE WAS ONE MILD SURPRISE. IN ILLINOIS, THE NUMBER OF FARMS OVER 1000 ACRES BARELY CHANGED FROM 2007. THE NUMBER OVER 2000 ACRES CLIMBED ONLY SLIGHTLY. THIS SEEM COUNTER TO MY IMPRESSION THAT THE BIG ARE GETTING BIGGER AND GOBBLING UP ALL THE LAND. WHAT MIGHT BE GOING ON? FIRST, SINCE THE LARGE MAJORITY OF THESE FARMS ARE GRAIN FARMS, THE RECORD PROFITS DURING THOSE 5 YEARS MAY HAVE ALLOWED SMALLER FARMS TO STAY COMPETITIVE. INDEED, SOME DOUBT THE ECONOMIC ADVANTAGES USUALLY ASCRIBED TO LARGE FARMS, SUCH AS MORE LEVERAGE ON INPUT COSTS. SECOND, A NUMBER OF BABY BOOMERS ARE NEARING RETIREMENT. LARGER FARMS TEND TO BE A RESULT OF YEARS OF SLOW GROWTH, SO PERHAPS OPERATORS IN THIS CATEGORY RAN OUT OF AMBITION, AND EASED BACK ON EXPANSION PLANS. ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS NO SUCCESSOR ON THE HORIZON…IN SHORT, GEEZERS LIKE ME WILL SLOW DOWN IF THEY CAN AT THIS POINT IN LIFE. THIRD, MAYBE THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE COSTS TO EXPANSION THAT WE DON'T FULLY UNDERSTAND. THERE COULD EVEN BE A SWEET SPOT FOR SIZE THAT IS HARD TO IDENTIFY. REGARDLESS, MY BET IS SHARPLY LOWER NET INCOMES COULD CHANGE THIS PICTURE. THE BIGGEST QUESTION FOR ME IS WHETHER BOOMERS WILL DECIDE TO QUIT BEFORE IT GETS WORSE. IF MEMORIES OF THEIR FATHERS LOSING EQUITY DURING THE EIGHTIES ARE STRONG, THERE COULD BE A RUSH TO THE EXITS.
HEADLINES:
U.S. FARM REPORT BROUGHT TO YOU BY THE ALL-NEW CHEVY SILVERADO. 2014 NORTH AMERICAN TRUCK OF THE YEAR.TODAY ON U-S FARM REPORT...PRICES AND CONVENIENCE BOOST CHICKEN CONSUMPTIONFRUIT GROWERS TAKE ADVANTAGE OF A NEW FEDERAL AID PROGRAM
AND WE HEAD TO THE CORNER OF AMERICA FOR AN USUSUAL LEGACY STORY.
JOHN OPEN:
HELLO AND WELCOME TO U-S FARM REPORT, I'M JOHN PHIPPS.THE LAST FEW MONTHS HAVE SEEN A STRING OF SCARES ABOUT VARIOUS FOOD STAPLES. THERE IS ONGOING CONCERN OVER BANANAS. WE WEATHERED A LIME SHORTAGE EARLIER THIS YEAR, AND THE CALIFORNIA DROUGHT HAS IMPACTED PRICES AND AVAILABILITY FOR ALL KIND OF PRODUCE. ARABICA COFFEE IS THREATENED BY A VIRUS. WELL, THE WORST NEWS JUST BROKE. THANKS TO CLIMATE CHANGE, THE WORLD'S COCOA TREES ARE STRUGGLING AND PRODUCTION IS NOT KEEPING UP WITH INCREASED DEMAND. MAJOR CANDY MAKERS HAVE ANNOUNCED STIFF PRICE INCREASES. THIS IS A PROBLEM FOR MEN, BUT MAYBE WE CAN USE AN APPLIANCE OR A POWER TOOL FOR VALENTINE'S DAY OR TO APOLOGIZE. LET'S GET STARTED WITH THE HEADLINES AND TYNE MORGAN.
CHICKEN CONSUMPTION:
THANKS, JOHN.MANY POULTRY PRODUCERS HOPE TO START EXPANDING SOON.
THAT'S THANKS TO LOWER FEED COSTS AND A GROWING APPETITE FROM CONSUMERS..
EPA GREENHOUSE GAS:
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS STATE GOVERNORS ARE JUST A COUPLE WHO HAVE COME OUT AGAINST EPA'S RECENT PROPOSAL TO CUT GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS FROM PLANTS THAT PRODUCE FOSSIL FUELS.  BUT A NEW STUDY JUST RELEASED THURSDAY SHOWS THE CHANGES WOULD BE A GOOD THING FOR THEIR ECONOMIES. RESEARCHERS SAY THE REGULATION WOULD CUT DEMAND FOR ELECTRICITY FROM COAL. AND AT THE SAME TIME, CREATE NEW DEMAND FOR NATURAL GAS, WHICH THEY SAY HAS HALF THE CARBON FOOTPRING OF COAL. RESEARCHERS SAY THIS WOULD CREATE JOBS AND ADDITIONAL REVENUE.     
CATTLE FOOTPRINT:
MEANWHILE, A DIFFERENT STUDY ISN'T SITTING WELL WITH MANY IN THE BEEF INDUSTRY.
 PUBLISHED IN THE PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES, RESEARCHERS COMPARED THE ENVIRONMENTAL FOOTPRINT OF VARIOUS LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION PROCESSED. THEY CLAIM BEEF REQUIRED 28 TIMES MORE LAND, 11 TIMES MORE IRRIGATION, FIVE TIMES MORE GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSION AND SIX TIMES MORE NITROGREN FERTILIZER THAN ANY OTHER LIVESTOCK-BASED PRODUCTION SYSTEM.
TO GET TO THESE RESULTS, THE GROUP USED DATA FROM VARIOUS SOURCES, LIKE THE USDA AND INTEROR AND ENERGY DEPARTMENT. BUT GROUPS LIKE THE NATIONAL CATTLEMEN'S BEEF ASSOCIATION SAYS THE RESEARCHERS OVER SIMPLIFIED THESE NUMBERS FROM A VERY COMPLEX SYSTEM.
WASHINGTON WILDFIRE:
 MEANWHILE, RESIDENTS IN THE NORTHWEST ARE SIFTING THROUGH THOUSANDS OF CHARRED ACRES. THAT'S BECAUSE A SERIES OF WILDFIRES RAGED ACROSS OREGON AND WASHINGTON THIS WEEK. HOMES HAVE BEEN DESTROYED AND IT'S ALSO CAUSING CONCERN FOR MANY RANCHERS. THIS FIRE NEAR TWISP, WASHINGTON OVERTOOK A HERD THAT WAS ON SUMMER-GRAZING IN THE NEARBY MOUNTAINS.
FRUIT DISASTER AID:
2012 WAS A TOUGH ONE FOR MANY FRUIT FARMERS. AN EARLY SPRING FORCED THE TREES OUT OF DORMANCY EARLY AND THEN A LATE FREEZE ROBBED FARMERS OF A GREAT CROP.
 JUST THIS WEEK, SENATE AG COMMITTEE CHAIR DEBBIE STABENOW ANNOUNCED RELIEF IS ON THE WAY.SIGNUPS ARE NOW OPEN FOR THE NON INSURED CROP DISASTER ASSISTANCE PROGRAM, OR NAP. FRUIT GROWERS WHO LOST CROPS IN 2012 MAY NOW BE ELIGIBLE FOR ASSISTANCE THROUGH THE PROGRAM THAT'S PART OF THE NEW FARM BILL.
 WEATHER WITH GENERIC OPEN:
I'M STARTING TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD BUT THAT'S BECAUSE THE WEATHER IS A BROKEN RECORD. WE HAVE ANOTHER TROPH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND THE EAST AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE BEGINNINGS OF THIS WEEK, AND WATCH WHAT HAPPENS, THE CUTOFF SITS JUST SOUTHEAST OF HUDSON BAY FOR A WHILE AND THEN IT LOOKS LIKE IT'S GOING TO WEAKEN AND THEN NO, NOT QUITE. WE HAVE A WEAK CUTOFF SITTING OVER SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES, BY NEXT WEEK.
SO THAT MEANS A COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ARE GOING TO CONTINUE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THIS WEEK NO QUESTION IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AND IN FACT, EARLY IN THE WEEK IT'S GOING TO EXTEND BACK INTO THE NORTHEASTER PORTIONS OF THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS WITH COOL AIR MASS COMING SOUTHWARD ON MONDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD BE ON HEAVY SIDE IN GULF COAST AND EAST COAST REGIONS AS STORM SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD AND WE CONTINUE TO HAVE THE HEAT LOW SITTING IN THE SOUTHEAST, SO EVERY AFTERNOON WE'RE GOING TO HAVE THIS AREA OF HIT AND MISS, MAINLY MISS, STORMS IN THE SOUTHWEST, BUT AT LEAST YOU HAVE CHANCES FOR SOME RAIN IN THOSE AREA. SYSTEM COMING INTO THE NORTHWEST WILL HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH IT AS WELL. THAT SYSTEM MOVER INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY MIDDLE OF THE WEEK…. HIGH PRESSURE STILL JUST DOMINATING CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY… ALL THE WAY TO THE EAST COAST… BY WEDNESDAY WITH CLEAR, COOL CONDITIONS, MAYBE A WEAK FRONT COULD CAUSE A BRIEF SHOWER IN UPPER GREAT LAKES. BUT OTHERWISE THE FOCUS WILL BE ON THE FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA ON UP INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES AND INTO THE WESTERN STATES AS WELL. BY FRIDAY THEN, THAT SYSTEM IS STARTING TO REDEVELOP INTO THE WESTERN GULF. AND YOU CAN SEE SOME WIDESPREAD RAINS EXPECTED EASTERN TEXAS ALONG THE GULF COAST REGION. THAT WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN. ANOTHER COOL FRONT COMING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS, WESTERN GREAT LAKES MAY PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ANDS STORMS THERE, AS WELL. AND OF COURSE SOME HIT AND MISS VARIETY IN THE WESTERN STATES. LET'S LOOK AT NEXT WEEK, AUGUST THIRD THROUGH THE NINTH. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS HOW OFTEN HAVE I BEEN SAYING THAT FOR THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY? ABOVE NORMAL EASTERN MAINE, AND ALSO OUT WEST, PRECIP ABOVE NORMAL…FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EASTWARD…EXCEPT FOR MINNESOTA WESTWARD BELOW NORMAL, AND  THEN SOUTH TEXAS BELOW NORMAL, HERE'S OUR 90 DAY OUTLOOK, SPLIT UP INTO THREE MONTHS. AUGUST TEMPS BELOW NORMAL WESTERN LAKES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ABOVE NORMAL SOUTHERN STATES, AND UP AND DOWN EASTERN SEABOARD…SEPTEMBER I'M SHIFTING COOL BACK WESTWARD. SO BELOW NORMAL WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS EASTERN ROCKIES….ABOVE NORMAL FOR A CHANGE FOR THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF COAST AND OUT WEST. BUT WE COME BACK WITH IT IN OCTOBER. THE COLD COMES BACK. SO BELOW NORMAL FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRE CORN BELT…ONLY THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST EXPECTED TO BE WARMER THAN NORMAL... PRECIP OVER THE NEXT 90 SAYS LOOKS LIKE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MISSOURI BACK THROUGH MOST OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. WHICH WOULD BE SOME GOOD NEWS FOR SOME FOLKS, BUT BELOW NORMAL FOR GULF COAST REGION AND FAR NORTHWEST …IT COULD BE TRICKY MATURING THE CROP HERE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. YOU DIDN'T SHOW ANYTHING WITH HEAT THERE. NO I DON'T SEE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS HERE UNFORTUNATELY. IT'S REMARKABLE RIGHT NOW. IT'S AN UNUSUAL JULY. LOOKS LIKE AUGUST WILL BE COOLER, THAT'S TRUE, ESPECIALLY FAR WEST. THANKS MIKE, SPIRIT OF THE HEARTLAND IS NEXT.
USFR REOPEN:
YOU'RE WATCHING US FARM REPORT, WITH HOST JOHN PHIPPS, FARM DIRECTOR AL PELL, NATIONAL REPORTER TYNE MORGAN AND METEOROLOGIST MIKE HOFFMAN. US FARM REPORT, THE SPIRIT OF THE COUNTRYSIDE."
DJ COLLECTION:
WE KNOW MANY OF OUR VIEWERS HAVE COLLECTIONS.WHETHER IT'S ANTIQUE TRACTORS OR SOMETHING A LITTLE LESS SPACE CONSUMING, ONCE YOU START COLLECTING, SOMETIMES IT'S HARD TO STOP. THAT'S THE CASE FOR A RADIO ANNOUNCER IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI WHO KEEPS ALL KINDS OF MUSIC ALIVE. AND IT'S NOT JUST A DOWNLOAD FROM A COMPUTER. STEVE GRANT FROM KY-3-TV TUNES US INTO A BLAST FROM THE PAST.
LEGACY TEASE:
UP NEXT, WE'LL HEAD TO THE NORTHEAST WHERE ONE FAMILY IS KNITTING TOGETHER A FAMILY LEGACY BY GOING ALL NATURAL. LEAVE A LEGACY IS NEXT.
LEGACY SHEEP:
WHEN YOU THINK OF AGRICULTURE IN THE NORTHEAST, WHAT COMES TO MIND? PROBABLY DAIRIES, LOBSTER AND MAYBE EVEN A LITTLE BIT OF MAPLE SYRUP. AS CLINTON GRIFFITHS TELLS US IN THIS LEAVE A LEGACY REPORT, ONE FAMILY IS ON A QUEST TO BRING SHEEP BACK TO NEW ENGLAND.
LEGACY TAG:
THANKS, CLINTON. CURRENTLY FARM JOURNAL IS HOSTING LEGACY WORKSHOPS ACROSS THE COUNTRY.TO FIND DATES OR TO JUST LEARN MORE ABOUT THE FARM JOURNAL LEGACY PROJECT, VISIT AGWEB.COM BACKSLASH LEGACY PROJECT.
TEASE:
WHEN WE COME BACK, TRACTOR TALES AND OUR COUNTRY CHURCH SALUTE...PLEASE STAY WITH US.
TRACTOR TALES:
JOHN…WHAT CLASSIC TRACTOR DO YOU HAVE FOR US TODAY AL? AL…WELL JOHN, WE'VE GOT A 520 DEERE THAT WAS BUILT IN 1957.
MAILBAG:
TIME NOW FOR OUR WEEKLY LOOKS INSIDE THE FARM REPORT MAILBAG...TOM DEETS SAW A SURVEY ON WHAT A PICNIC COSTS, AND ASKED ABOUT ANOTHER EXPENSE SUMMARY.
"DO A SURVEY ON WHAT IT WOULD COST ON MACHINERY, FUEL AND INPUT COST ON RAISING A CROP." TOM, ALL OVER THE CORNBELT AG ECONOMISTS ARE BUSY CHURNING OUT FRANKLY TROUBLING NUMBERS LIKE YOU ASKED FOR. ONE OF THEM IS GARY SCHNITKEY AT THE UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS, WHO’S WORK YOU CAN SEE ON FARMDOC DAILY. CHECK WITH YOUR STATE EXTENSION FOR NUMBERS CLOSER TO YOU. I THINK IT'S SAFE TO SAY, AG ECONOMISTS ARE DEEPLY WORRIED FARMERS HAVE NOT GRASPED THE NATURE OF THE BUSINESS PROBLEM FACING THEM. THIS IS HIS CORN BUDGET FOR 2015 FOR A HIGHLY PRODUCTIVE CENTRAL ILLINOIS GRAIN FARM. THEY ARE BASED ON FBFM NUMBERS FROM ACTUAL FARMS. NOTE THE NUMBERS DO NOT INCLUDE LAND RENT OR ANY RETURN TO THE OPERATOR. THE LINE MARKED POWER INCLUDES MACHINERY COSTS AND FUEL. OVERHEAD INCLUDES LABOR, FARM INSURANCE, BUILDING COSTS AND INTEREST. THIS TABLE JUST SHOWS COSTS, BUT YOU CAN GUESS WHERE I'M HEADING. WHEN YOU COMBINE THESE NUMBERS WITH POSSIBLE INCOME RANGES, THE RESULTS ARE SOBERING TO SAY THE LEAST. WHILE MANY OF US HAVE SOLD $3.50 CORN BEFORE AND LIVED TO TELL THE STORY, WE DIDN'T HAVE COSTS LIKE THESE. NEXT YEAR COULD BE A PROFIT HAIRCUT FOR CORN AND SOY FARMERS.YOU CAN FIND SIMILAR WORKSHEETS ALL OVER THE AG MEDIA. BUT IN ADDITION TO CHECKING THEM OUT, TAKE THE TIME TO GENERATE YOUR OWN NUMBERS. AND BRACE YOURSELF.
CONTACT:
AS ALWAYS, WE WANT TO HEAR FROM YOU, SEND COMMENTS TO MAILBAG-AT-U-S-FARM-REPORT-DOT-COM OR CHECK US OUT ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER.
GOODBYE:
 FOR AL AND MIKE, I'M JOHN PHIPPS SAYING THANK YOU FOR WATCHING U-S FARM REPORT. BE SURE TO JOIN US AGAIN NEXT WEEK, WE'LL BE WORKING TO DO EVEN BETTER..
RFD PROMO:
 THIS WEEK ON US FARM REPORT… POSSIBLE NEW CONSTRAINTS ON SHIPPING FUEL VIA RAIL…WE'LL BREAK IT DOWN. IS THE REBOUNDING SOYBEAN MARKET FOR REAL?  AND THIS FAMILY WANTS TO BRING SHEEP FARMING BACK TO ITS ROOTS. JOIN US THIS WEEKEND ON R-F-D.
 
 
 
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