Hello and welcome to US Farm Report. Remember back in March or as I now call it the summer of 2012? Field conditions were so ideal few of us could stop preparation for and even planting, even though we knew it was early. It may turn out the biggest problem from those choices wasn't possible frost damage but locking in our production option. Only the market continues to whisper we want soybeans, not corn. Despite the faith you may put in the report it was one more hint that users trying to tell producers something.
The USDA offers its first estimates of the supply demand ledger for the current crop year. On the supply side the Agriculture department puts new crop ending stocks at nearly 1.9 billion-bushels higher than expectations, as far as soybeans they are at 145 million-bushels and all wheat stocks are put at 735 million. As for old crop corn ending stocks were bumped higher by 50 million, now estimated at 851 million. Soybean supplies are decreased by 40 million and the old crop supplies to 210 million. And there was slight adjustment on wheat stocks to just 770 million. USDA also issued its wheat production forecast. It puts winter wheat production at just under 1.7 billion. A 13% increase from last year. Based on crop conditions as of May 1st yield is pegged at 37.6 bushels, up one and a half from last year. All wheat forecast is upped at 2.2 billion-bushels, even though drought seems to be letting up in some parts of Texas many areas are still in desperate need of moisture it. Steve is a farmer in the southern panhandle around Plainview Texas and as he plants the crop he said the water situation isn't much better than 2011. This is causing him and others in the area to grow less corn, more drought tolerant crops like cotton, sunflower and sorgum. From harvest of last year we haven't had an inch of rain yet. People go out and dig in the first foot or so and you see a little bit of moisture but under that it's dry.
Crop watch this week starts in southern Michigan. A farmer in Hillsdale said he may have jumped the gun on corn planting in late march, he said only one in three plants has come out so it will be a serious replant. His corn planted on May 1st is coming up well. And we talked to Bob from Montana. He said winter wheat is coming along. There is great moisture and near perfect growing conditions. He expects above average yields if the crop finishes up.