USFR Weekly Recap - November 23-24, 2013

November 23, 2013 02:30 AM
 

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THIS WEEK ON U.S. FARM REPORT

EPISODE # 2102

NOVEMBER 23-24, 2013   

 

JOHN’S OPEN:

HELLO AND WELCOME TO U-S FARM REPORT, I'M JOHN PHIPPS. THE OUTLOOK DIMMED FURTHER THIS WEEK FOR A NEW FARM BILL SOON OR PERHAPS ANYTIME. IN FACT, RECENT UNPRECEDENTED EVENTS IN CONGRESS MAKE PREVIOUSLY UNTINKABLE OUTCOMES WORTH REVISITING. FOR EXAMPLE, WHILE CONVENTIONAL WISDOM HOLDS THAT THE AVENUE OF ESCAPE IS YET ANOTHER EXTENSION OF THE OLD FARM BILL, I THINK THE ODDS OF THAT HAVE FALLEN AS WELL. BUT THE SPECTRE OF THE SO-CALLED PERMANENT FARM LAW MEANS MILK PRICES WILL DOUBLE, SOMETHING THAT IS SURELY UNTHINKABLE. EXCEPT WE SAID THAT ABOUT THE SEQUESTER. AND FILIBUSTER REFORM. SO MAYBE EXPENSIVE MILK SHOULD BE A POSSIBILITY IN YOUR 2014 FOOD BUDGET. TIME NOW FOR THE HEADLINES.....HERE'S TYNE MORGAN.

HEADLINES:

AS LOWER COMMODITY PRICES START TO HIT FARMERS' LEDGERS, THE OUTLOOK FOR 2014 DOESN'T LOOK AS BRIGHT AS PREVIOUS YEARS. MEANWHILE, JOHN DEERE POSTED EARNINGS AND THEIR 2014 FORECAST THIS WEEK. THE EXPECTED LOWER NET FARM INCOMES IS ALSO SLASHING EXPECTED EARNINGS. DEERE FORECASTS WORLDWIDE SALES OF BOTH AG AND TURN EQUIPMENT TO DROP 6 PERCENT IN 2014 THE COMPANY SAYS IT FINISHED STRONG THIS YEAR, WITH INCOME RISING 17 PERCENT IN THE LAST QUARTER AND FULL-YEAR EARNINGS REACHING A RECORD 3 POINT 5 BILLION. HAWAII CITIZENS ARE TAKING A STANCE AGAINST G-M-O CROPS TRYING TO BAN IT ON AN ISLAND.  TAKING A LOOK AROUND THE GLOBE, CHINESE PIG FARMERS ARE HAVING TO FIND OTHER LOCATIONS TO FARM. THE CENTRAL HUNAN PROVINCE SAYS IT WANTS TO SAVE ITS POLLUTED MOTHER RIVER BY EITHER RELOCATING OR CLOSING ANY PIG FARMS THAT ARE LOCATED ALONG THE BODY OF WATER. THIS MEANS HUNDREDS OF PIG AND POULTRY FARMS WILL NEED TO MOVE BY 2016. THE RIVER HAS BEEN POLLUTED BY WASTE, AS WELL AS ANIMAL CARCASSES. HUNAN IS CHINA'S TOP PIG PRODUCING AREA. SPEAKING OF COMMODITIES, ALL EYES ARE ON BRAZIL'S CROP, AS FARMERS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A RECORD NUMBER OF SOYBEANS THIS WINTER. REPORTS NOW INDICATE CATEPILLARS MAY STAND IN THE WAY. BRAZIL'S AGRIUCLTURE MINISTRY DECLARED A STATE OF EMERGENCY IN MATO GROSSO. CATERPILLARS HAVE INFESTED THE CROPS CAUSING DEVASTATION. THIS WILL NOT ONLY IMPACT YIELDS, BUT CAUSE PRODUCTION COSTS TO SPIKE AS MORE INSECTICIDE APPLICATIONS WILL BE NEEDED.

CROP WATCH:

IT'S BEEN A WEEK OF CLEAN-UP AFTER LAST WEEKEND'S POWERFUL LATE-SEASON STORMS. THE INTENSITY OF THAT STORM - ESPECIALLY FOR THE MIDWEST IN LATE NOVEMBER - IS CERTAINLY UNUSUAL. THIS SILO TOPPLED UNDER THE STRENGTH OF THE WIND. OUR THANKS TO DAVE KESTEL FROM MANHATTAN, ILLINOIS MATT BURGNER FROM MOWEAQUA, ILLINOIS SENT THIS PHOTO. HE SAID THE STORM BROUGHT 60-TO-70 MILE AN HOUR WINDS ON HIS FARM. UNHARVESTED CORN COULDN'T WITHSTAND THE POWERFUL WINDS. AND PERRY HARLOW FROM KINSMAN, ILLINOIS SHARED A COUPLE DISTINCT PHOTOS. THIS ONE ILLUSTRATES THE SIZE OF HAIL. THAT'S A QUARTER ON THE PLATE.

ROUNDTABLE:

AL IS IN TO TALK MARKETS WITH BRIAN BASTING AND BRIAN ROACH.

JOHN’S WORLD:

IN ONE OF THOSE ODD SETS OF COINCIDENCES, JAN AND I DISCOVERED THIS YEAR WE HAVE THANKSGIVING ALONE. JUST THE TWO OF US. OUR SONS AND THEIR FAMILIES WILL BE AT IN-LAWS AND OTHER DRIVABLE FAMILY ARE LIKEWISE ENGAGED. AFTER TRYING TO BE BITTERLY DISAPPOINTED, WE REALIZED LAST NIGHT WE WERE OK WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT. WE GET TO SEE OUR GRANDCHILDREN FAR MORE THAN MOST, AND WHILE WE CAREFULLY IMPLANTED A TINGE OF GUILT - "DON'T WORRY ABOUT US. WE'LL BE FINE. PROBABLY." - JUST THE TWO OF US IS BEGINNING TO LOOK LIKE ITS OWN BRAND OF FUN. AFTER ALL FORTY SOME YEARS AGO WE SPENT MORE THAN ONE THANKSGIVING BY OURSELVES, SO MEMORIES OF THOSE DAYS CAME FLOODING BACK. THEN OTHER CONSIDERABLE POSITIVES BECAME APPARENT. WE COULD HAVE THE MENU JUST THE WAY WE LIKE IT, COOKED AT JAN'S PACE AND SEASONED TO HER SPECS. WE COULD HAVE REAL WHIPPED CREAM WITH THE PUMPKIN PIE INSTEAD OF KOOLWHIP - DON'T ASK, LONG STORY. THERE WILL BE LESS PLANNING AND CLEANUP AND MORE QUIET. AFTER DINNER, INSTEAD OF SOME FOOTBALL GAME I HAVE ZERO INTEREST IN, WE CAN WATCH MY FAVORITE TRADITIONAL HEART-WARMING HOLIDAY MOVIE: STAR TREK 2: THE WRATH OF KHAN. IT WILL BE A THANKSFIVING TO SAVOR. AND GOOD TIME TO REMEMBER MANIFOLD BLESSINGS: UNEXPECTED GOOD YIELDS, A NEW GRANDSON WHO IS GOOD SLEEPER ( A FIRST), AND AN EXPENSIVE DRUG WHICH JUST WENT GENERIC. SO IF YOUR THANKSGIVING IS SHAPING UP TO BE SOMETHING OTHER THAN A NORMAN ROCKWELL PAINTING, MAYBE IT WILL TURN OUT BETTER THAN YOU THINK. AND ABOVE ALL: LIVE LONG AND PROSPER.

2ND HALF

JOHN’S OPEN:

HELLO AND WELCOME TO U-S FARM REPORT, I'M JOHN PHIPPS. AS WE HEAD INTO THE TRHANKSGIVING WEEKEND, I THINK THERE IS A SENSE OF ANTICIPATION FOR MANY OF US. WE'RE GOING TO TUNE OUT. GOODNESS KNOWS THERE IS PLENTY TO IGNORE. FROM FRUSTRATION IN WASHINGTON TO TORTUROUS DECLINES IN PRICES TO CONSUMER RESISTANCE TO FARMING PRACTICES, WE HAVE LOTS OF NEGATIVES TO FOCUS ON. SO SETTING ALL THAT ASIDE, EVEN IF ONLY FOR A FEW HOURS OR DAYS, IS NOT ONLY A WELCOME PROSPECT FOR FARMERS, BUT I'LL BET THOSE AROUND US WOULD BREATH A SIGH OF RELIEF. I SUGGEST WE ALL TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THIS TIME TO FOCUS ON THE MOMENT, AND PEOPLE WHO MATTER MOST TO US, AND ALL OUR BLESSINGS.  AND THE FOOD. LET'S GET STARTED WITH THE HEADLINES AND TYNE MORGAN.

HEADLINES:

THE UPDATED MANDATORY COUNTRY OF ORIGIN LABELING LAW IS SCHEDULED TO TAKE EFFECT THIS WEEKEND. SOME CATTLE RANCHERS HOLD OUT HOPE CONGRESS WILL INTERVENE BEFORE RETALIATION SETS IN. MEANWHILE, PIG NUMBERS ARE DOWN GOING INTO 2014 AS THE PORCINE EPIDIMIC DIARRHEA VIRUS, OR PEDV, HAS WIPED OUT LARGE NUMBERS OF PIGLETS ACROSS THE COUNTRY. ACCORDING TO THE NATIONAL PORK PRODUCERS COUNCIL, THE VIRUS HAS NOW HIT 18 STATES, MOST OF WHICH ARE LOCATED IN THE MIDWEST.

TIPSY TURKEY:

THANKSGIVING IS JUST A FEW DAYS AWAY. YOU MAY ALREADY HAVE SOME SPECIAL RECIPES IN MIND, INCLUDING THOSE TO ENHANCE THE TASTE OF YOUR TURKEY. A FARMER IN NEW HAMPSHIRE STUMBLED UPON HIS FOR IDEA TO MAKING TURKEYS TASTE EVEN BETTER. AND IT INVOLVES GIVING THE BIRDS A SPECIAL TREAT BEFORE THEY REACH THE CHOPPING BLOCK. MATT FRIEDMAN HAS DETAILS OF THE TIPSY TURKEY.

NEBRASKA BEEF:

WHILE NET FARM INCOME HAS BEEN GOOD FOR GRAIN FARMERS IN RECENT YEARS, LIVESTOCK FARMERS HAVE SUFFERED DUE TO HIGH FEED COSTS. AS NATIONAL REPORTER TYNE MORGAN TELLS US, THINGS ARE LOOKING GREENER FOR CATTLE RANCHERS IN 2014.

TRACTOR TALES:

OWNER LEON LAWSON SAYS HE GREW-UP FARMING IN KANSAS, BUT NOW HE'S IN GLENDALE ARIZONA. LEON SAYS IT DOESN'T MATTER WHERE HE LIVES, JUST AS LONG AS CAN HEAR HIS 1965 OLIVER RUNNING.

CHURCH SALUTE:

TODAY'S COUNTRY CHURCH SALUTE GOES TO THE CHURCH OF CHRIST IN WEST LIBERTY, IOWA. THE CHURCH HAS BEEN AROUND FOR 156 YEARS. SETTLERS TO THE AREA FIRST STARTED MEETING IN A LOG HOUSE IN 1857. TEN YEARS LATER, THEY BUILT A CHURCH STRUCTURE WHICH STILL STANDS TODAY. OVER THE YEARS, THE NUMBERS DWINDLED AND THE SMALL RURAL CHURCH NEARLY CLOSED. DETERMINED TO KEEP IT OPEN, THE CONGREGATION PLACED AN ADVERTISEMENT IN THE PAPER TO FIND A VOLUNTEER MINISTER. THEY FOUND ONE IN PREACHER TOM COLLIER. HE MAKES THE HOUR-LONG DRIVE EACH WEEK TO LEAD THE DETERMINED MEMBERSHIP. AND OUR SECOND CHURCH SALUTE GOES TO BIG REEDY CHURCH IN EDMONSON COUNTY KENTUCKY. RECORDS AREN'T REAL CLEAR, BUT IT APPEARS THE CHURCH BEGAN IN 1885. FOR YEARS THEY HELD SERVICES AT THE BIG REEDY SCHOOL. THEY EVENTUALLY BUILT A CHURCH BUILDING. A NEWSPAPER ARTICLE FROM NOVEMBER 1940 SAYS "A GOOD BROTHER GAVE AN ACRE OF LAND AND THE MEMBERS MADE GREAT SACRIFICES OF MATERIAL, MONEY, LABOR AND TIME" TO BUILD THEIR CHURCH. OUR THANKS TO JOHN HAYNES FOR SHARING THE NEWS OF BIG REEDY CHURCH. HE'S BEEN ATTENDING THERE FOR NEARLY 70 YEARS.

MAILBAG:
TIME NOW FOR OUR WEEKLY LOOK INSIDE THE FARM REPORT MAILBAG. AFTER ALL MY TALK ABOUT HOW WE'RE MISHANDLING THE FEDERAL BUDGET, WILLIAM STROMBERGER FROM EDWALL, WASHINGTON ASKS THE KEY QUESTION: "YOU ARE RIGHT ABOUT CUTTING SPENDING BUT THE QUESTIONS ARE DIFFICULT TO ANSWER. WHICH ENTITLEMENTS OR PROJECTS NEED TO BE REDUCED OR CUT OUT COMPLETELY?"  WILLIAM, YOU NAILED THE PROBLEM. LOTS OF TALKING HEADS RANT ABOUT CUTTING SPENDING BUT NEVER SEEM TO SPECIFY WHICH PROGRAMS. I SUPPORT CUTTING PROGRAMS CONSISTENT WITH MAINTAINING GROWTH, AND HERE IS WHERE I WOULD AIM THE AXE: FIRST PROGRAMS TO CUT:

FARM SUBSIDIES
REDUCE THE MILITARY TO PRE-IRAQ SIZE
CANCEL F-35, OSPREY
REDUCE AIR AND NAVAL FLEETS
ENACT MALPRACTICE REFORM
ADD PUBLIC OPTION - TECHNICALLY NOT A CUT BUT IT LOWERS THE COST OF THE AFFORDABLE CARE ACT
I WOULD ALSO REDUCE TAX EXPENDITURES - BREAKS FOR SPECIAL INTEREST GROUPS THAT ARE ACTUALLY AN UNDERHANDED WAY OF SPENDING. CAP TAX BREAK FOR EMPLOYER HEALTH INSURANCE CAP MORTGAGE INTEREST DEDUCTION TREAT CAPITAL GAINS As REGULAR INCOME END ESTATE BASIS STEP-UP END OIL AND GAS SUBSIDIES SWITCH INFLATION MEASURE TIE MEDICARE B PREMIUMS TO COST MOST OF THESE MEASURES COULD BE DONE GRADUALLY AS THE ECONOMY RECOVERS, WITH A GOAL OF MINIMUM GDP GROWTH OF 2%.  UNDOUBTEDLY, SOMEWHERE ALONG THE WAY I HAVE ATTACKED YOUR SACRED COW - WHICH IS WHY POLITICIANS NEVER TALK DETAILS. BUT IF WE'RE GOING TO BE SERIOUS ABOUT DEFICIT REDUCTION SOMEBODY HAS TO.
 

 

As always, we want to hear from you, send comments to mailbag@usfarmreport.com or leave us a voice mail at 800-792-4329.

 

 

 

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