COARSE GRAINS: Projected U.S. feed grain supplies for 2010/11

are raised this month as higher forecast production for corn and sorghum more than offset lower corn carryin. Beginning stocks for corn are projected 52 million bushels lower reflecting higher expected exports, corn use for sweeteners and starch, and a small reduction in projected imports for 2009/10. Corn production for 2010/11 is forecast 120 million bushels higher. The survey-based yield forecast of 165.0 bushels per acre is up 1.5 bushels from last month’s projection and 0.3 bushels above last year’s record. Domestic corn use for 2010/11 is raised 30 million bushels reflecting higher expected corn use for sweeteners and starch. Exports are projected 100 million bushels higher as tighter foreign supplies of wheat and coarse grains raise prospects for U.S. corn shipments. Despite higher production, ending stocks are projected down 61 million bushels at 1.3 billion, the lowest in 4 years. The season-average farm price is raised 5 cents on each end of the range to $3.50 to $4.10 per bushel. Similar price increases are projected for the other feed grains. Other 2010/11 feed grains changes include higher sorghum and barley production with higher forecast yields. Sorghum feed and residual use is projected 15 million bushels higher with larger supplies. Sorghum exports are raised 10 million bushels with higher expected demand from Mexico. Global coarse grain supplies for 2010/11 are projected 10.6 million tons lower with reduced foreign production more than offsetting higher U.S. output. More than half of the reduction in foreign coarse grain production is for barley. Barley production is lowered 3.0 million tons for Russia as extended drought and extreme heat sharply reduce yield potential for spring barley. EU-27 barley production is lowered 1.5 million tons on untimely dryness and heat in northwest Europe and excessive rains in eastern Europe. Barley production is lowered 1.5 million tons for Ukraine, 0.6 million tons for Algeria, and 0.5 million tons for Kazakhstan. Global corn production is lowered 0.8 million tons with Russia and Ukraine each lowered 1.5 million tons and EU- 27 lowered 1.0 million tons. These reductions more than offset higher production in the United States. Global rye and oats production are lowered 1.3 million tons and 0.7 million tons, respectively, on reductions for Russia, EU-27, and Ukraine. Global coarse grain imports are raised this month with increases for corn in China, EU-27, South Korea, and Israel, supporting higher expected corn feeding in each country. In EU-27, South Korea, and Israel, corn is expected to replace higher priced wheat in feed rations. Barley feeding is also raised for EU-27 replacing wheat. By contrast, coarse grain feeding is lowered 3.7 million tons for Russia with wheat expected to partly replace barley, corn, oats, and rye in livestock and poultry feeding. Offsetting reduced coarse grain exports from Ukraine and Russia are higher barley exports from EU-27 and Australia and higher corn exports from the United States. Global coarse grain ending stocks are lowered 8.1 million tons with corn ending stocks down 1.9 million. EU-27 barley ending stocks are down 4.0 million tons accounting for most of the rest. Coarse grain and corn ending stocks are both expected to remain well above their recent lows in 2006/07.

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