COARSE GRAINS: Projected 2013/14 U.S. feed grain supplies are reduced this month with lower forecast production for corn and sorghum. Corn production for 2013/14 is lowered 187 million bushels to 13.8 billion.
The first survey-based corn yield forecast, at 154.4 bushels per acre, is down 2.1 bushels from last month’s projection. Sorghum production is forecast 36 million bushels lower with the forecast yield 5.9 bushels per acre below last month’s projection.
Corn beginning stocks for 2013/14 are projected 10 million bushels lower with a 15-million-bushel increase in 2012/13 exports only partly offset by a 5-million-bushel increase in imports. Feed and residual use for 2013/14 is lowered 50 million bushels this month with the smaller crop. Exports are projected 25 million bushels lower with reduced domestic supplies and increased foreign competition. Ending stocks for 2013/14 are projected 122 million bushels lower.
The projected season-average farm price for corn is raised 10 cents at both ends of the range to $4.50 to $5.30 per bushel. Prices received by farmers are expected to remain above cash bid levels through the fall as producers who forward-priced corn earlier in the year support the weighted average farm-gate price.
Global coarse grain supplies for 2013/14 are projected 2.9 million tons lower as the reduction in the United States more than offsets an increase in foreign supplies. Global 2013/14 corn production is lowered 2.7 million tons. In addition to the United States, corn production is lowered for Mexico, the European Union, Russia, and Serbia. Partly offsetting are increases for Ukraine, India, and Turkey.
Ukraine production is raised 3.0 million tons as higher reported area combines with favorable July temperatures to raise production prospects. Production is raised 1.0 million tons for India as favorable monsoon rainfall supports increased plantings and a higher yield outlook. Turkey corn production is raised 0.4 million tons with higher area and higher expected yields. Global barley production is raised 1.1 million tons with increases for the European Union, Argentina, and Turkey more than offsetting a reduction for Canada. Global rye and mixed grain production are also raised slightly this month with increases for the European Union.
Global 2013/14 corn trade is raised with increased imports projected for Mexico, South Korea, the European Union, and Egypt. Corn exports are projected higher for Ukraine, but partly offset by declines for Russia, the European Union, and the United States. Corn trade is also increased for 2012/13 with higher imports for Egypt, South Korea, Turkey, the European Union, and Indonesia. Exports for 2012/13 are raised for Brazil and Argentina.
Supporting the increase in Brazil export prospects, particularly over the next few months, is a 3.0-million-ton increase in 2012/13 corn production. Global corn consumption for 2013/14 is projected 2.3 million tons lower.
Reduced U.S. feed and residual use is only partly offset by increases for South Korea, Ukraine, and Egypt. Global corn ending stocks for 2013/14 are projected 0.8 million tons lower with the increases for Ukraine, India, and Brazil, mostly offsetting the reduction projected for the United States.
Coverage, Analysis of the Aug. 12 USDA Reports
See all of the report data, coverage and analysis of the Aug. 12 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates and Crop Production reports.