COARSE GRAINS: U.S. feed grain supplies for 2010/11 are projected down reflecting lower corn
production. U.S. corn production is estimated 93 million bushels lower as a 1.5-bushel-per-acre
reduction in the national average yield outweighs a 183,000-acre increase in harvested area. A 5-
million-bushel increase in projected U.S. corn imports slightly offsets the reduction in output. Corn feed and residual use is projected 100 million bushels lower based on September-November
disappearance as indicated by the December 1 stocks. Corn used for ethanol is raised 100 million
bushels offsetting the reduction in expected feed and residual use. Record December ethanol
production, as indicated by weekly Energy Information Administration data, boosts corn use to
Ending corn stocks for 2010/11 are projected 87 million bushels lower at 745 million. This is down
963 million bushels from last year. The stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 5.5 percent, the lowest
since 1995/96 when it dropped to 5.0 percent. The 2010/11 marketing-year average farm price
projection is raised 10 cents on both ends of the range to $4.90 to $5.70 per bushel as cash and
futures prices are expected to strengthen. Heavy early season marketings of corn priced well
below current cash price levels are expected to limit the upside potential for the weighted average
price received by producers.
Global 2010/11 coarse grain supplies are projected lower this month with reduced corn, sorghum,
oats, and rye production only partly offset by higher projected barley production in Argentina and
EU-27. Global corn production is lowered 4.7 million tons with the U.S. reduction and a 1.5-millionton decrease for Argentina as untimely, persistent dryness during late December and early
January reduces yield prospects in key central growing areas. Smaller reductions in corn output
are also projected for Indonesia and Turkey, each down 0.4 million tons.
production is lowered with a 0.3-million-ton reduction for Brazil based on the latest government
estimates. Brazil oats production is lowered slightly in line with government estimates. Russia
oats and rye production are lowered 0.3 million tons and 0.4 million tons, respectively, based on
the latest government indications.
Global 2010/11 coarse grain trade is lowered as higher expected prices and tighter supplies
reduce corn imports and exports. Corn imports are lowered for South Korea, Turkey, and the
Philippines, but raised for Indonesia. Corn exports are reduced for Argentina and Turkey, with a
partly offsetting increase for Canada. Global corn consumption is lowered mostly reflecting
reduced feeding in South Korea and Turkey. Global corn ending stocks are projected 3.0 million
tons lower with more than two-thirds of the reduction in the United States.