The outlook for 2013/14 U.S. feed grain supplies is lowered this month as delayed plantings reduce yield prospects for corn. Projected corn production is lowered 135 million bushels to 14.0 billion with the average yield projected at 156.5 bushels per acre, down 1.5 bushels from last month.
Despite rapid planting progress during mid-May across the Corn Belt, rains and cool temperatures since have delayed the completion of planting in parts of the western Corn Belt and raised the likelihood that seasonally warmer temperatures and drier conditions in late July will adversely affect pollination and kernel set in a larger share of this year’s crop.
With reduced production prospects, domestic corn usage is projected 70 million bushels lower for 2013/14. Projected feed and residual disappearance is lowered 125 million bushels with the smaller crop, higher expected prices, and increased availability of distillers’ grains. Corn used in ethanol production is raised 50 million bushels in line with an increase this month for the 2012/13 marketing year. Other food and industrial uses are also projected higher, up 5 million bushels from last month.
Corn ending stocks for 2013/14 are projected 55 million bushels lower. At the projected 1.9 billion bushels, ending stocks are expected to be 2.5 times their 2012/13 level. The season-average farm price range for corn is raised 10 cents per bushel on each end to $4.40 to $5.20 per bushel. Increases are also projected for the sorghum, barley, and oats farm price ranges this month.
Changes for 2012/13 include higher corn and oats imports, higher corn food, seed, and industrial use, and reduced corn exports. Corn imports are raised 25 million bushels based on the strong pace of imports to date and expectations that feeders in some locations will continue to supplement domestic supplies as old-crop corn becomes tighter during the summer months. Oats imports are raised 3 million bushels reflecting shipments to date.
Corn used in ethanol production is raised 50 million bushels for 2012/13 based, in part, on higher-than-expected May ethanol production as indicated by weekly data reported by the Energy Information Administration. Favorable margins for ethanol producers and high prices for Renewable Identification Numbers (RINS) are also expected to moderate any slowdown in production through the end of the marketing year.
Other food and industrial use is projected up 15 million bushels with increases projected for corn use in cereals and beverage and industrial alcohol. Corn exports are projected 50 million bushels lower based on the continued lackluster pace of shipments and sales. Projected corn ending stocks for 2012/13 are raised 10 million bushels.
Global coarse grain supplies for 2013/14 are projected 4.3 million tons lower mostly on the reduction expected in U.S. corn output. Global coarse grain beginning stocks are also lowered as a reduction in 2012/13 China corn production is only partly offset by an increase in 2012/13 Brazil corn production this month.
China corn production is lowered 2.4 million tons based on the latest government revisions for the 2012/13 crop. Brazil corn production is raised 1.0 million tons for 2012/13 based on higher reported area for the safrina crop which will be harvested in the coming weeks.
Global 2013/14 coarse grain trade is raised slightly this month. Corn imports are raise for Indonesia and corn exports are raised for India. Global corn consumption is down 1.7 million tons mostly based on changes to domestic use in the United States. Global corn ending stocks for 2013/14 are projected 2.8 million tons lower with reductions for China and the United States partly offset by an increase for Brazil carried through from the larger 2012/13 crop.
At the projected 151.8 million tons, 2013/14 world corn stocks would be up 27.5 million tons from 2012/13 and the largest in 12 years.