COTTON: This month’s 2012/13 U.S. cotton estimates include offsetting increases in production and exports, resulting in ending stocks of 4.2 million bales, unchanged from last month’s forecast. Production is raised 280,000 bales based on USDA’s final Cotton Ginnings report, released March 25, 2013. Domestic mill use is unchanged.
Exports are raised to 13.0 million bales, based on the larger supply and strong export shipments to date. The marketing-year average price received by producers is now forecast at 70.5 to 73.5 cents per pound, up 0.5 cent on each end of the range, reflecting recent higher prices.
The 2012/13 world cotton estimates show higher beginning and ending stocks and sharply higher trade. Beginning stocks are raised mainly in India due to adjustments to the 2010/11 and 2011/12 balance sheets. World production is forecast slightly lower as a reduction for Brazil is partially offset by the increase in the United States.
World consumption is raised slightly, as recent data indicate higher consumption for India and Vietnam. Forecast world trade is raised 1.8 million bales, including a 1.5-million-bale increase for China, based on reported allocations of additional import quotas to mills. Exports are raised for India, the United States, and Australia, but are lowered for Brazil and Mexico.
World 2012/13 ending stocks are now projected at 82.5 million bales, nearly 1 percent above last month. China’s higher imports are expected to displace potential sales from the massive national reserve, raising stocks there to a projected 45.6 million bales. Stocks outside of China are projected 2 percent below last month.
Coverage, Analysis of the April 10 USDA Reports
See all of the data, coverage and analysis of the WASDE and Crop Production reports.