COTTON: This month’s U.S. cotton estimates for 2013/14 reflect lower production as indicated by USDA’s first crop survey, resulting in lower ending stocks. Production is reduced 447,000 bales to 13.1 million, the smallest since 2009.
The abandonment rate is estimated virtually the same as last season, but yields are down, due mainly to a 17-percent reduction in the Southeast from the 2012 record. Relative to last month, the 2013/14 balance sheet also includes marginally lower beginning stocks and a decrease of 400,000 bales in the export projection. Domestic mill use is unchanged. Ending stocks are now forecast at 2.8 million bales, the equivalent of 20 percent of total disappearance. The forecast range of 72 to 88 cents for the marketing-year average price received by producers is narrowed 2 cents on each end.
The U.S. 2012/13 balance sheet is revised this month to reflect exports as reported in USDA’s U.S. Export Sales end-of-season report, and also includes a first estimate of final ending stocks. Stocks in public warehouses as of July 27, 2013, as reported to the Farm Service Agency, are lower than anticipated, resulting in a preliminary loss estimate of 325,000 bales.
The 2013/14 world cotton forecasts show higher beginning stocks, lower production, and marginally lower ending stocks relative to last month. Production is reduced for China, the United States, Uzbekistan, and Zimbabwe, but is raised for Pakistan.
The China crop estimate reflects unfavorable weather in parts of Xinjiang, north central China, and in Hunan province. Other major foreign changes to the world balance sheet are concentrated in India.
India’s production is unchanged from last month, but stocks are raised in 2011/12, 2012/13, and 2013/14 due to adjustments to the residual "loss," as the official data used to estimate production, trade, and consumption indicate unsustainably low stock levels. India’s exports are raised in both 2012/13 and 2013/14.
Coverage, Analysis of the Aug. 12 USDA Reports
See all of the report data, coverage and analysis of the Aug. 12 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates and Crop Production reports.